Mortgage Demand Rises 9.2% In Recent Week (But Purchase Demand Fell 6%)

Stay with the mortgage market! It is improving under Trump after a disastrous run under Biden.

But for last week, mortgage applications increased 9.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 34 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The holiday-adjusted refinance index had its strongest week in a year and the average loan size for refinances also increased significantly, since borrowers with large loans are more sensitive to bigger rate moves. Refinance applications accounted for almost 49 percent of all applications last week.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.49 percent from 6.64 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Mortgage Applications Decline 1.2 Percent From Previous Week (Purchase Index Decreased 6 Percent, Refinance Index Increased 1 Percent)

Bad, bad Jerome Powell.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 29, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to its lowest level since April to 6.64 percent. However, that was not enough to spark more application activity. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.64 percent from 6.69 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

But don’t get your hopes up about The Fed saving the housing market.

US Home Prices Drop -0.25% MoM In June (New York And Chicago Biggest Gainers In Price, San Francisco And Tampa Biggest Losers)

Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities fell for the 4th straight month in June (the latest data available from S&P CoreLogic’s Case-Shiller data released this morning).

The -0.25% MoM drop was larger than expected and dragged the YoY price growth down to +2.15% – the weakest since July 2023.

Meanwhile The Federal Reserve keeps on printing money, helping to drive up home prices.

,Metro level? New York and Chicago lead, with Phoenix, Miami, Denver, San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa all experiencing price declines.

On a side note, Chicago is even more unaffordable than last year. So much for Mayor Brandon Johnson saying there would be no crime if everyone could afford housing (one of the stupidest comments I have ever heard).

The stupidity is strong with this one!

Whip It! Recession Warning May Prompt The Fed Into Action (Debt Stress Is Mounting, Recession Warning!)

The Fed will have to whip it good with rate cuts if the recession warnings are an indicator of what lies ahead for the US economy.

The ratio of The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) vs. The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index (CEI) ratio hasn’t been this low since 2008.

Fed Funds Futures are signalling rate cuts at the September 17th FOMC meeting and December 10th meetings.

On the crypto front, Ethereum is soaring.

Debt stress is mounting!

People Get Ready! The Fed Might Actually Lower Rates! (But Will They Unwind Their Massive Balance Sheet?)

People get ready! Powell and the Fed might actually lower their target rate at The Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on September 17.

The Fed hasn’t touched rates under Trump, but were hyperactive under Biden.

Let the good times roll? I wonder if Jay Powell and the other Fed honchos are taking Jackalope Rides in Jackson Hole, WYO?

Dazed And Confused? Existing Home Sales Rose 0.8% YoY In July, Median Existing Home Prices Up 0.2% From One Year Ago (And Why Fed Rate Cuts Won’t Matter)

The Federal Reserve is Dazed and Confused. Their money printing is making housing progressively more expensive and unaffordable.

Existing-home sales increased by a measley 2.0% in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report.

Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West.

• 2.0% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million in July.

• Year-over-year: 0.8% increase in existing-home sales

Median existing-home price for all housing types, up 0.2% from one year ago ($421,400) – the 25th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

It will be hard to make housing more affordable as long as The Fed keeps printing money.

Powell et al cutting rates 25 basis points won’t really matter as long as they continue to print money. Unfortunately, M2 VELOCITY peaked under the Clinton Administration and has declined since despite frantic money printing.

What happended in 1995? Clinton’s National Homeownership Strategy that mandated HUD partners (GNMA, FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, banks, etc.) to lower credit standards to encourage homeownership.

We need FHFA Director Bill Pulte to avoid doing what Democrats love (everything free or cheap).

Keep On Printing? Home Price Growth Linked To Fed Money Printing (Cleveland OH Is Fastest Growing City In Terms of Home Prices Tampa FL Fastest Declining)

Is This My Free One-Way Bus Ticket To Cleveland? Cleveland is leading the nation in home price growth at 4.7% YoY. Followed closely by Hartford CT, Louisville KY, Detroit MI and Buffalo NY.

Well, if The Fed would stop printing money (M2), home prices would decline. But The Fed will keep on printing!

Of course, the top 1% of net worth households are doing quite well thanks to The Fed’s eternal money printing.

On the commercial RE side, US office vacancy rates are approaching 20%.

Lastly, Tampa FL is the slowest growing area. Actually declining at a rate of -6.2% YoY.

Changeling! 511,000 New Homes For Sale In US, Highest Inventory Since October 2007 (Mortgage Rates About The Same As In 2007 But Home Prices Are 87.5% Higher Today Than In 2007!)

The US housing market is a changeling, going from a mega glut during the financial crisis to a tight market, then back to a glut … again. In fact, there are 511,000 new homes for sales in the US, the highest inventory since the financial crisis.

Combine all-time high home prices with RELATIVELY high mortgages, and we have an affordability crisis once again.

While we have the most new homes for sales since 2007, mortgage rates are about the same as in 2007 (orange line). But home prices are 87.5% higher today than in 2007!

When government gets involved, what could go wrong?

Good News! Purchase Mortgage Applications Rose 17 Percent Since Same Week Last Year (Mortgage Refis Surge 23 Percent From Previous Week)

The Fed didn’t try, but mortgage rates fell and mortgage applications rose 10.9% week-over-week.

Mortgage applications increased 10.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 8, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 10.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 23 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.67 percent last week, which spurred the strongest week for refinance activity since April. Borrowers responded favorably, as refinance applications increased 23 percent, driven mostly by conventional and VA applications. Refinances accounted for 46.5 percent of applications and as seen in other recent refinance bursts, the average loan size grew significantly to $366,400. Borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be more sensitive to rate movements.

Good News! Business Applications Booming As Inflation Remains Calm (No Negative Impacts From Tariffs)

Let the good times roll! Booming business applications under Trump and calm inflation.

The latest inflation report continues to show no negative impact from tariffs. Core goods prices were up 0.2% in July. They are up just 1.1% over the past 12 months and are actually up a lesser 0.8% since President Trump began phasing in tariffs.

Business applications are booming under Trump’s economy.