Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
The latest jobs report was like the Cornell Hurd song, “It’s just the whiskey talking.” Except that this time it’s just the Biden Administration talking … and their jobs reports have been corrected/revised repeatedly.
The latest jobs report saw Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 256k and mortgage rates (conforming) rose above 7%. But what happens when the recent jobs report is revised downwards?
I don’t care what Biden did as President. Now Trump can do it correctly.
Time to take a break from the Gavin Newsom/Karen Bass LA fire fiasco. And refocus on the Biden/Harris employment fiasco.
The most recent data points to additional huge revisions in Q2 and Q3.
In a normal world, Newsom and Bass would be toast politically. But this is far left Commiefornia!
Today’s jobs report was smoking hot! As in 256k jobs added.
With the strong payrolls number, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut is falling.
And with the jobs report, rates are a soarin’!
On a different note, LA Fire Department Supplies Were Sent To Ukraine Over The Past Two Years & They Are Forced To Battle Flames With Women’s Handbags As Buckets Under Gavin Newsom’s Leadership.
At least the smelts are safe in Los Angeles!
Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the New Year’s holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Purchase application activity is up about 2% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 15% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.
The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Then we have this diddy from The Epoch Times where a mortgage company allegedly provided a loan to a household that had 33 debts in collection. Hey, I thought under Senator Elizabeth Warren’s brainchild these reckless lending practices were over!
One will be gone on January 20 and I wish the other one would be gone too.
Was Freddie King correct? Is the US economy going down??
The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) has inverted to the positive side after a prolonged NEGATIVE inversion (from July 6, 2022 to Sept 5, 2024) marking the longest period of negative inversion since August 18, 1978 – May 1, 1980. Each negative inversion was followed by a recession.
The UST 10Y-3M yield curve tells a similar tale. The 10Y-3M curve inverts prior to recessions but goes positive just prior to recessions.
Yes, if the yield curve is a good predictor of recession, the US economy is going down.
Freddie King is playing a Gibson ES-355TDC guitar.
We are all riders on the Biden housing storm.
Existing-home sales have finally started to improve on a seasonally adjusted basis after a three-year decline.
Cause? Raging home prices combined with higher than normal mortgage rates. Home prices are up 35.4% under Biden while conforming 30Y mortgage rates are up 148%.
Well, its that time of year again. Mortgage applications drop to their lowest levels after Christmas until New Years Eve. Then mortgage applications pick up in the new year.
Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 27, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the Christmas holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 21.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 55 percent compared with two weeks ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with two weeks ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 48 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 36 percent from two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 62 percent from two weeks ago and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
US home prices surged to the 17th consecutive all-time high.
US home prices in the 20 largest cities rose 0.32% MoM in October (the latest data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller), considerably hotter than the 0.22% rise expected. However, despite the MoM beat, the pace of annual acceleration has declined to its slowest since Sept 2023. At 3.62% YoY.
Which metro area had the highest gain? New York City at 7.27%. The lowest gain? Tampa at 0.39%.
Sweet home Chicago … NOT!
The Biden/Harris economic “miracle” was simply massive Federal spending (and borrowing) combined with hiring Federal workers. This can be seen in the following chart of Chicago Fed manufacturing index compared with Federal spending. Great times in the first months of 2021, but as Federal spending slowed, so did the manufacturing index. Last seen at -10.71 in December 2024.
Joe Biden, sold his soul for family wealth at the crossroads in Delaware.
The US taxpayer has suffered a double whammy under The Federal government. First, thanks to the Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has fallen 97% since the creation of The Federal Reserve in 1913 (under Woody Wilson).
The second leg of the double whammy is the staggering $36 TRILLION is public debt, up from $321 million in 1966. That is a remarkable increase, most of it happening under Obama/Biden then Biden/Harris or 188% since Biden/Harris. Yes, Trump is sanwiched in between Obama and Biden for a scant 4 years.
While we love to blame Presidents, it is really the fault of Congress since The House controls the budget. And The Federal Reserve.
Double whammy!
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.