Most people are focused on the Great Reset in Global Trade, caused by Obama/Biden/Schumer/Pelosi letting US trading partners getting away with massive disparate tariffs against the US. Now that Trump is trying to level the playing field, we will see short-term losses in the stock market. But the jobs report for March shows that Trump’s economic policies are working.
The March jobs report ended up being far stronger than expected, as the US added a whopping 228K jobs, the highest since December and more than double the 117K in February (revised lower from 151K).
The better news? Federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following a loss of 11,000 jobs in February.
The mortgage market got its mind set on a recovery, but Biden’s mindless economic policies have jammed up the mortgage market. Example? Mortgage applications are down in a season where they typically increase.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 57 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. Most mortgage rates finished last week lower, with the 30-year fixed essentially unchanged at 6.70 percent. Last week’s level of purchase applications was its highest since the end of January, driven by a 3 percent increase in conventional purchases, while government purchase applications were down 2 percent.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.70 percent from 6.71 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Conforming 30Y mortgage rates are up 137% since Biden was elected President.
Soothe me? As we move further away from Sleepy Joe’s horrid economic policies, we should see an improvement in GDP from the current Atlanta Fed GDP Now Q1 Forecast of -2.8%.
The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -3.95 percentage points to -4.79 percentage points in the standard model and from -1.92 percentage points to -2.53 percentage points in the alternative model.
The US Treasury 10Y yield has fallen to 4.157% as recession fears mount.
Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rate on Multifamily (Apartment) loans soared to highest rate since 2000. Since it is as of January 31, 2025, you can’t blame this on Donald Trump (although I am sure they will try).
Of course, home prices and rents soared under Biden. Home prices rose 37% under Biden and rents rose 25%. Simply unaffordable.
The Fed keeps on printing money M2! The Case-Shiller National home price index is up 4.1% since last year YoY as The Fed continues to print money.
Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 63 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Existing-home sales rose in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the other registered a decline.
Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – progressed 4.2% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million in February. Year-over-year, sales slid 1.2% (down from 4.31 million in February 2024).
But Fed M2 Money printing isn’t helping existing home sales of a YoY basis!
The Imperial March from Star Wars should have been the theme for Bidenomics, the top-down government-directed economy (mainly to political donors). It will take a while for the economy to recover from its addiction to Federal government spending.
Speaking of The Empire, the New York Fed’s Empire State business activity survey declined to -19.30. Would Jerome Powell and The Fed have cut rates had they known about the Empire activity survey yesterday?
Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 14, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 13 percent from the previous week and was 70 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Mortgage rates increased for the first time in nine weeks, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.72 percent. This increase in rates led to a decrease in refinance volume. However, purchase application volume inched up to its highest level in six weeks, led by a 3 percent increase in FHA purchase applications. Overall, purchase application volume is up 6 percent compared to last year at this time. Growing inventories of homes on the market and steadier mortgage rates are supporting homebuying activity thus far this spring.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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