Glad All Over! AI Contributes Massive Amount To GDP Growth As Median Home Price Growth Contracts

I am glad all over … because the AI boom is delivering a record contribtion to US GDP.

And US home prices are contracting making housing more affordable.

I don’t care what you did when you lived in Fort Worth, but at least home prices are contracting.

Core PCE Fell In April To Lowest Since April 2021, +2.5% YoY (Fed M2 Money Printing UP 4.3% YoY)

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – fell once again in April to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5% YoY.

And The Fed keeps on printing money!

Supercore inflation is down to -0.023 MoM.

The Fed is thinking that they can help.

US Existing Home Sales Weakest April Since Great Financial Crisis (Weakest April Sales Pace Since April 2009)

US existing home sales dropped 0.5% MoM in April (considerably worse than the +2.0% MoM rise expected), dropping to just 4.00MM sales SAAR, with sales down 3.1% from a year earlier on an unadjusted basis.

This is the weakest April sales pace since April 2009.

And median price of EHS is rising and is on pace to top 2024’s high.

And with M2 Money printing like a bat out of hell.

30Y Treasury Yield Headed Towards Highest Since 2007 (US Yield Curve Significantly Steeper Than Under Biden)

US 30y bond yields are heading toward their highest level since 2007.

The yield curve has finally normalized!

And significantly steeper in 2025.

Later and shallower rate cuts are being priced.

New Home FHA Mortgage Share Surges As Debt-To-Income Ratios Surge (New-home Loan Sizes Fell To 2021 Levels)

The not shocking news out of DC: The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will “Massively” Increase Near-Term Deficits, Add $5 Trillion In Debt. The surprising news? New home FHA Mortgage Share has surged!

On the not surprising news front: FHA debt-to-income ratios have surged (the surge started under Biden).

New-home loan sizes have fallen to 2021 levels.

Moody’s Downgrades USA Credit Rating From Aaa (M2 Money UP 40% Since Covid, Public Debt UP 56%, US CDS Down Near Greek Levels!)

Now you know why Trump is so eager to cut wasteful spending! The real mystery is why Democrats and RINOs are so determined to continue wasteful spending and not cut taxes.

Trump inherited a fiscal disaster from Biden and Congress. Not to mention The Federal Reserve. Credit default swaps (CDS) for the USA are near Greece (and China) levels.

Since Covid struck in 2020, US debt is up a staggering 56%!

And M2 Money is up 40% since Covid.

Opa! Our country is on fire!

Stock Market Soars As China Flinches! (NASDAQ 100 Highest Since Mid February)

Well, U.S. and China reached an agreement to lower tariffs in a 90-day cool-off period. Despite China claiming they would NEVER agree to tariffs! The result? The NASDAQ 100 rose to its highest level since mid-February.

So much for the MSNBC/CNN doomsayers.

Delinquency Rate On US Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) For offices SURGED To 10.3% In April (Near Highest EVER)

The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SURGED to 10.3% in April, near the highest EVER.

Moreover, the multifamily delinquency rate spiked 113bps in April, to 6.57%, the highest since 2015.

Mortgage Applications Increased 11% From Preceding Week, Fed Will Remain On Hold (Purchase Apps Up 12%)

The Fed can help, but won’t. We are still struggling to recover from Biden’s cockeyed management of the economy,

Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The economic news last week included a negative reading for first-quarter GDP growth and further signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector, mixed with a solid employment report for April. The net impact on mortgage rates was mostly downward but just back to levels from early April. The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.84 percent.

But there will be no rate cuts today from The Fed.

US Wealth Gap (Top 1% Versus Bottom 50%) Remains Daunting (Trump Urges Fed Chair Powell To Cut Rates)

Republicans are trying to lock in Trump’s tax cuts and Democrats are resisting. We now know that DOGE is trying to end the wasteful spending in DC. But I would really like to see tax rates on the middle class fall.

The wealth gap between the top 1% of taxpayers and the bottom 50% of taxpayers is enormous. And has gotten worse since 1990.

Meanwhile. to fight off the temporary effects of the tariff war, Trump is urging Fed Chair Powell to cut rates.

Powell will likely NOT cut rates. But what does “Lunatic Liz” Warren say about rate cuts??