Existing-Home Sales Decreased To 4.02 Million SAAR In March, Down 2.4% YoY (Inventory Remains Depressed)

We are still suffering from Biden’s horrible economic policies. 10% Joe had a heart of fool’s gold.

Existing-home sales descended in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slid in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales dropped in the Midwest and South, increased in the West and were unchanged in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in March. Year-over-year, sales drew back 2.4% (down from 4.12 million in March 2024).

Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 1.33 million units, up 8.1% from February and 19.8% from one year ago (1.11 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.5 months in February and 3.2 months in March 2024.

Till we can undo Biden’s policies.

Powell’d! Mortgage Applications Decline By 13% Since Previous Week (Refi Apps Down 20% From Previous Week)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is apparently waiting for the tariff “war” to settle down before he pushes for interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, rising mortgage rates are hurting consumers and the mortgage industry.

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Overall mortgage application activity declined last week, as rates increased to their highest level in two months. The 30-year fixed rate rose for the second straight week to 6.9 percent, an almost 30-basis-point increase over two weeks.

The 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve is steepening.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk!

Home Price Growth Slows As Fed Prints Less Money (Keep On Printing??)

US home prices are slowing as Jerome Powell and The Fed slow down M2 Money printing.

Notice the lag effect between M2 Money growth (green dashed line) and the Case-Shiller National home price index (solid blue line). Both have slowed.

Should The Fed keep on printing money? We don’t need no stinkin’ Fed!

The Empire Strikes Out! Business Conditions Expectations Plunged To Lowest Since 9/11

The Emperor is actually China’s Xi Jinping! Causing the Empire Fed Manufacturing index to decline.

Despite the slump in ‘soft’ survey data, analysts expected Empire Fed Manufacturing to bounce back from March’s tumble to one year lows and they were right with the headline index rising from -20.0 to -8.1 (considerably better than the -13.5), but still negative. However, while current conditions jumped, expectations plunged to the lowest since 9/11/.

Thunderstruck! Tariff Turbulence Causing 10Y Treasury Volatility To Increase As MBS Spreads Widen

Thunderstruck! The tariff kerfuffle between the Trump Administration and China is causing turbulence in the Treasury market. The 10-year Treasury rate is soaring with China’s counterpunching.

MBS spreads are widening.

Along with volatility.

But corporate spreads are widening more than MBS spreads.

The 10Y-2Y yield curve has risen to the highest level since the early days of “China Joe” Biden.

On a related note, Freddie Mac serious delinquency rates on mortgages is now the highest since the financial crisis.

Mortgage Applications Decline -1.6% From Previous Week (30Y Mortgage Rates UP 137% Since Biden Was Elected President)

The mortgage market got its mind set on a recovery, but Biden’s mindless economic policies have jammed up the mortgage market. Example? Mortgage applications are down in a season where they typically increase.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 57 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. Most mortgage rates finished last week lower, with the 30-year fixed essentially unchanged at 6.70 percent. Last week’s level of purchase applications was its highest since the end of January, driven by a 3 percent increase in conventional purchases, while government purchase applications were down 2 percent.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.70 percent from 6.71 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Conforming 30Y mortgage rates are up 137% since Biden was elected President.

Biden was the destroyer!

Soothe Me? Q1 GDP Now At -2.8% As 10Y Treasury Yield Falls To 4.157% (Recession Jitters?)

Soothe me? As we move further away from Sleepy Joe’s horrid economic policies, we should see an improvement in GDP from the current Atlanta Fed GDP Now Q1 Forecast of -2.8%.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26.

The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -3.95 percentage points to -4.79 percentage points in the standard model and from -1.92 percentage points to -2.53 percentage points in the alternative model.

The US Treasury 10Y yield has fallen to 4.157% as recession fears mount.

Won’t Get Fooled Again? New Homes For Sale Hits 500k (Glut), Existing Homes Inventory At 1.24 Million

Apparently, we DID get fooled again. In February, there were 500,000 new homes for sale.

While new home inventory hit 500k, existing home inventory rose to 1.24 million homes.

Cause? Home prices are too damn high. Thanks to Powell and The Fed.

Mortgage originations have dwindled under Biden/Harris.

Jerome Powell and the Blackhearts.

Keep On Printing? Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Up 4.1% YoY As Mortgage Applications Decline 2% Since Last Week

The Fed keeps on printing money M2! The Case-Shiller National home price index is up 4.1% since last year YoY as The Fed continues to print money.

Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 63 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February, But Down 1.16% YoY (M2 Money Printing Isn’t Helping)

Existing-home sales rose in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the other registered a decline.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – progressed 4.2% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million in February. Year-over-year, sales slid 1.2% (down from 4.31 million in February 2024).

But Fed M2 Money printing isn’t helping existing home sales of a YoY basis!