US Home Prices Surge To 17th Consecutive All-Time High (NYC Leads Nation, Tampa Last)

US home prices surged to the 17th consecutive all-time high.

US home prices in the 20 largest cities rose 0.32% MoM in October (the latest data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller), considerably hotter than the 0.22% rise expected. However, despite the MoM beat, the pace of annual acceleration has declined to its slowest since Sept 2023. At 3.62% YoY.

Which metro area had the highest gain? New York City at 7.27%. The lowest gain? Tampa at 0.39%.

(Not So Sweet Home) Chicago PMI Falls To 36.9, Manufacturing Index Slumps To -10.71 As Federal Spending Slows

Sweet home Chicago … NOT!

The Biden/Harris economic “miracle” was simply massive Federal spending (and borrowing) combined with hiring Federal workers. This can be seen in the following chart of Chicago Fed manufacturing index compared with Federal spending. Great times in the first months of 2021, but as Federal spending slowed, so did the manufacturing index. Last seen at -10.71 in December 2024.

Joe Biden, sold his soul for family wealth at the crossroads in Delaware.


11 Indications That The US Economy Is In Slow Motion Collapse After 4 Years Of Biden/Harris

Let’s put this in black and white. There are 11 indications that the US economy is in a state of slow motion collapse.

The fact that economic conditions are getting worse is certainly not good news, but it is better to know in advance what is coming. After four years under Joe Biden, the U.S. economy is a giant mess. We have been witnessing a slow-motion collapse right in front of our eyes, and those at the bottom levels of the economic food chain have been experiencing more pain than anyone else. Of course this is one of the biggest reasons why Donald Trump won the election.

Example? Sticky inflation remains far higher under Biden/Harris than it did when Trump was President. Prices remain elevated as you will notice when Christmas shopping!

#1 When the economy is in good shape, holiday spending increases each year.  In 2024, only 16 percent of Americans say that they are going to spend more than last year and 35 percent of Americans say that they are going to spend less…

Americans this holiday season say they are seeing a ghost of Christmas past: inflation.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds inflation is still haunting the buying public, leading to what’s shaping up to be just an average season for retailers. Just 16% of respondents say they will spend more, down two points compared to last year. Forty-eight percent said that they’ll lay out the same amount for holiday gifts, up five points. At the same time, 35% say they’ll spend less, down two points as well.

#2 The number of job openings in the U.S. is now the lowest it has been since January 2021, but unlike January 2021 we don’t have a pandemic to blame our poor performance on…

US job openings tumbled last month to their lowest level since January 2021, a sign that the labor market is losing some momentum. Still, posted vacancies remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that the number of job openings dropped to 7.4 million in September from 7.9 million in August.

Economists had expected the level of openings to be virtually unchanged. Job openings fell in particular at healthcare companies and at government agencies at the federal, state and local levels.

#3 The manufacturing numbers that we are getting are extremely dismal.  For example, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index just experienced an extremely sharp decline

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a critical gauge of the general business conditions in Philadelphia, has reported a significant drop. The actual figure stands at -16.4, a sharp decline that suggests worsening conditions for manufacturers in the region.

This figure starkly contrasts with the forecasted number of 2.9, highlighting a more severe downturn than initially predicted. Analysts had anticipated a positive shift, indicating improving conditions, but the actual data presents a different, more concerning situation.

Moreover, when compared to the previous index value of -5.5, the current reading of -16.4 further emphasizes the severity of the decline. This continuous drop indicates a concerning trend for manufacturers within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

#4 Thanks to rapidly rising mortgage rates, the average U.S. homebuyer just lost $33,250 in purchasing power in just six weeks…

Mortgage rates hit 7% on October 28, the highest level since the start of summer and up nearly one percentage point from the 18-month low they dropped to in mid-September.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $442,500 home with a 7% mortgage rate, the daily average 30-year fixed rate on October 28. That buyer has lost $33,250 in purchasing power over the last six weeks; they could have purchased a $475,750 home with the 6.11% average rate on September 17. That was the lowest level since February 2023.

#5 Our cost of living crisis is officially out of control.  According to Bank of America, almost a third of all households “spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills”…

Many Americans are still in a tough spot: Nearly 30% of all US households this year said they spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills, according to a Bank of America Institute report, up from 2019 levels.

#6 A recent Lending Tree survey discovered that nearly a quarter of all households couldn’t pay their entire power bill at some point within the past year…

LendingTree’s findings about electricity bill costs comes as it reported 23.4% of Americans experienced an inability to cover their entire energy bill or portions of it in the last year, based on Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey data.

#7 The same Lending Tree survey found that about a third of all households had to reduce spending “on necessary things” within the past year in order to pay utility costs…

Needing to cover utility bills prompted 34.3% of Americans to curb their spending on necessary things – or eliminate some altogether – in at least one instance in the prior year, LendingTree said.

#8 As I discussed last week, demand is at record levels at food banks all over the nation…

Why is demand at food banks all over the country higher than it has ever been before?  The media keeps insisting that economic conditions are just fine, but it has become quite obvious to everyone that this is not true.  In particular, the rising cost of living has been absolutely crushing households from coast to coast.  In the old days, most of the people that would show up at food banks were unemployed.  But now food banks are serving large numbers of people that actually do have jobs but that don’t make enough to pay for all of the basics.  The ranks of the “working poor” are growing very rapidly, and this is creating an unprecedented crisis all over America.

#9 During normal times, troubled retailers would at least wait until after the holiday season to throw in the towel.  But we haven’t even reached Christmas and Party City has already announced that it will be closing all stores…

Party City is closing down all of its stores, ending nearly 40 years in business, CNN has learned.

CEO Barry Litwin told corporate employees Friday in a meeting viewed by CNN that Party City is “winding down” operations immediately and that today will be their last day of employment. Staff were told they will not receive severance pay, and they were told their benefits would end as the company goes out of business.

#10 Not to be outdone, Big Lots has announced that all 936 of their remaining stores will be shutting down on a permanent basis…

Big Lots is beginning ‘going out of business’ sales at all its stores across the US, as it prepares to close its remaining locations.

The discount retail chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September, and has already shut hundreds of stores nationwide.

In a press release Thursday, the company said it would begin the sales at its 963 remaining locations, after a sale to a private equity firm fell through.

#11 As of the end of November, more than 7,000 store closings had been announced in the United States.  That is a 69 percent increase from last year…

According to a report from CoreSight Research, U.S. retailers had announced more than 7,100 store closures through the end of November 2024, which represents a 69% increase compared to the same time in 2023. These closures are spread across numerous different sectors of retail from auto parts to restaurants to pharmacies, leaving many consumers wondering which companies will survive. This brings us to GameStop, the beloved retail gaming store, which has not only been closing hundreds of retail store locations since 2020, but also appears to be on track to close hundreds more of its locations in the very near future.

This is what a failing economy looks like.

Last week, a prominent mall in downtown San Francisco was empty of shoppers in the middle of the afternoon

Look at all of these beautiful Christmas decorations at the Crocker Galleria mall in San Francisco. It’s 4:47 PM and everybody should be shopping and buying Christmas presents for their family, but nobody is in this mall.

There are only three stores left that are open here. The escalators hum on inside this beautiful but empty decorated mall.

Outside on Market Street the fentanyl addicts lay folded over while a street performer sings Last Christmas to an empty Street.

Of course the lack of shoppers at that particular mall is just the tip of the iceberg.

Unfortunately, the truth is that downtown areas all over California “are crumbling under the weight of homelessness and drug addiction”

California’s biggest downtown areas are crumbling under the weight of homelessness and drug addiction, causing a vital part of its economy to dry out.

Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have made countless headlines since the pandemic about their drug-infested streets where businesses are quickly pulling out due to high crime rates and low consumer passage.

The number of drug addicts in America is at the highest level ever.

The number of homeless people in America is at the highest level ever.

They are victims of our slow-motion economic collapse, and the holidays will not be very happy for them.

So if you still have food on the table and a warm home to sleep in, you should consider yourself to be incredibly blessed.

Sadly, more Americans are being forced out into the streets with each passing day as the slow-motion collapse of our economy accelerates.

Merry Christmas!

Inflation Still Raging! 30Y Mortgage Rate Rose 141% Under Biden/Harris

Inflation soared under Biden/Harris, primarily due to their outrageous wasteful government spending.

US government spening soared with Covid and politicians enjoyed the unbridled spending.

Let’s see if Trump and Republicans can do any better.

The Brave New World? Job Finding Rate Collapses As Philly Fed Business Conditions Plummet

It is a brave new world as the US attempts an Argentina-like shift from an over-regulated, corrupt economy to a more free economy. While Argentina has Javier Milei, the US is stuck with greedy Democrats and RINOs and their bloated spending sinking any attempt to cut wasteful spending.

So as we transition from woefully corrupt and demented Joe Biden to Donald Trump, the labor market is … terrible. The job finding rate of unemployed workers has collapsed.

This occurred as the Philly Fed Business Outlook plummeted.

Here is Javier Milei of Argentina and The View’s image of a libertarian leader, Javier Bardem from No Country For Old Men.

BIG Bubbles? Biden/Democrats Spending Spree + FED = Massive Asset Bubbles = OVERVALUATION In Stock Market And Housing (Buffett Indicator, SP500 Mean Reversion, Shiller PE Ratio, CaseShiller To Gov Spending)

Apparently, the late Hawaiian crooner Don Ho foresaw Biden’s irresponsible spending spree. That is, BIG BUBBLES.

Let’s start with the Buffett Indicator (Warren, not Jimmy!). It indicates that the stock market is STRONGLY OVERVALUED.

The S&P 500 Mean Reversion Model also shows the stock market to be STRONGLY OVERVALUED.

How about the Shiller P/E Ratio? Also showing strong overvaluation.

House prices under Biden have exploded partly due to the outrageous Federal spending following COVID.

The Feral Reserve also had a hand in the housing bubble. While mortgage rates remain high (relative to the Trump years), The Fed’s balance sheet remains elevated.

To be sure, some Republicans were complicit in the spending spree. But mostly it was Democrats and the Biden/Harris Administration … which is still doling out millions.

All Aboard The Crazy Train! Biden’s Post COVID Economic “Miracle” Was Just Borrow And Spend (Large Corporations And Few Individuals Benefitted From COVID Spending)

All aboard the Biden/Pelos/Schumer crazy spending train!

Wage and salary income as a percentage of GDP has fallen from over 50% back in 1970 to 43.1% in 2022. And look at the post Covid decline! And the increase in M2 Money.

Meanwhile the US budget balance as a % of GDP has been plunging downwards in recent years.

Despite the slowing economy, pre-tax profits post Covid have SOARED!

Primarily due to reckless/wasteful Federal spending and FEDERAL DEBT that soared.

There you have it! The Biden/Harris economic “miracle” was simply Federal government malspending that benefitted large corporations and few people.

Joe Biden and his woefully corrupt son Hunter of laptop fame.

Crypt Keeper Jobs Report! November Household Jobs Report Shows -355k Jobs Lost, “Not In Labor Force” Increases By 368k

While Biden travels to Africa giving away money (and looking like the crypt keeper), the November jobs report was released.

The Establishment report showed a gain of 227k jobs. But the household survey showed a staggering loss of -355k jobs.

But not in labor force increased by 368k

Biden, the economic crypt keeper.

We Got Fooled Again! Federal Debt Is UP 236% Since Obama/Biden Were Sworn-in In 2009, Federal Spending Is UP 121% (Unfunded Liabilities [Promises] Now At $221 Trillion)

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. We did get fooled again!

The problem with the national debt can’t be fixed with Mitch McConnell still in the Senate and too many Obama-era political hacks still in Washington DC.

The Obama/Biden era began in 2009 and it still exists despite Trump winning the Presidency for 2025. The Obama/Biden regime along with Congressional assistance drove up US Federal Debt to around $36 TRILLION. That is an increase of a staggering 236% since Obama/Biden were sworn into office in January 2009. And Federal spending is up 121%.

Unfortunately, Trump cannot pull a Javier Milei (Argentina’s libertarian President) and obliterate the bloated carcas of Federal bureaucracy. Democrats and RINOs like Mitch McConnell will work overtime thwarting Trump’s efforts to control the bloat.

And don’t forget the $221 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities (promises) that Congress had made to get elected. That will eventually become Federal debt.

Slow Down? Existing Home Sales Rise YoY For First Time Since July 2021 (Near 2010 Levels, So Barely Rising)

Its a slow down in the housing market.

Existing Home Sales were expected to rebound modestly in October (+2.9% MoM) after dropping for 6 of the last 7 months to the lowest levels since 2010, and they did. Sales rose 3.4% MoM (a beat) but thanks to a downward revision for September from -1.0% to -1.3% MoM. What is most shocking about the shift is that it pushed the YoY change for existing home sales positive (+2.9% YoY) for the first time since July 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

…but in context, that shift up to 3.96mm SAAR homes sold is nothing…

Source: Bloomberg

High borrowing costs have led to a shortage of previously owned homes on the market, discouraging many would-be home sellers from listing their properties for sale and having to part with their current low financing costs.

“Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

“While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”

Last month, the inventory of available homes edged up 0.7% to 1.37 million, continuing to trend higher although well below pre-pandemic levels.

Despite the weakness in sales, tight inventory is keeping prices elevated, yielding one of the least affordable housing markets on record. The median sale price last month increased 4% from a year earlier to $407,200, the highest ever for any October, the NAR figures show.

Contract signings rose in all four US regions, led by a 6.7% jump in the Midwest.

Sales of single-family homes increased 3.5% in October; purchases of condominiums and co-ops were up 2.7%

Finally, while that’s all very exciting – a scintilla of growth off almost record lows – the fecal matter is about to strike the rotating object as rising mortgage rates lagged impact threatens…

Source: Bloomberg

In October, 59% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month, compared with 57% in September, and 19% sold above the list price. Properties remained on the market for 29 days on average, compared with 28 days in the previous month. First-time buyers made up 27% of purchases, still historically low.