Dazed And Confused? Existing Home Sales Rose 0.8% YoY In July, Median Existing Home Prices Up 0.2% From One Year Ago (And Why Fed Rate Cuts Won’t Matter)

The Federal Reserve is Dazed and Confused. Their money printing is making housing progressively more expensive and unaffordable.

Existing-home sales increased by a measley 2.0% in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report.

Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West.

• 2.0% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million in July.

• Year-over-year: 0.8% increase in existing-home sales

Median existing-home price for all housing types, up 0.2% from one year ago ($421,400) – the 25th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

It will be hard to make housing more affordable as long as The Fed keeps printing money.

Powell et al cutting rates 25 basis points won’t really matter as long as they continue to print money. Unfortunately, M2 VELOCITY peaked under the Clinton Administration and has declined since despite frantic money printing.

What happended in 1995? Clinton’s National Homeownership Strategy that mandated HUD partners (GNMA, FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, banks, etc.) to lower credit standards to encourage homeownership.

We need FHFA Director Bill Pulte to avoid doing what Democrats love (everything free or cheap).

Keep On Printing? Home Price Growth Linked To Fed Money Printing (Cleveland OH Is Fastest Growing City In Terms of Home Prices Tampa FL Fastest Declining)

Is This My Free One-Way Bus Ticket To Cleveland? Cleveland is leading the nation in home price growth at 4.7% YoY. Followed closely by Hartford CT, Louisville KY, Detroit MI and Buffalo NY.

Well, if The Fed would stop printing money (M2), home prices would decline. But The Fed will keep on printing!

Of course, the top 1% of net worth households are doing quite well thanks to The Fed’s eternal money printing.

On the commercial RE side, US office vacancy rates are approaching 20%.

Lastly, Tampa FL is the slowest growing area. Actually declining at a rate of -6.2% YoY.

Despite A Glut Of 1-Unit Homes For Sale (511k), 627k Units Built In June (Multifamily Starts Soar!)

Celebrate, dance to THEIR music. Housing construction is massively overregulated leading to a glut in unaffordable housing being built.

I mentioned the glut of new builds in my post yesterday. Construction remains over-regulated driving up the costs of new builds

As you can see, new single family homes for sale is 511,000. But single family homes under construction was 627,000 units in June.

Not surprisningly, housing completions were up in June, but generally down since late 2024.

Multifamily starts soared in June (red line).

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q3 At 2.5%, Federal Government STILL Spending Like Crazy (Inflation Still Going On)

The Trump economy continues to boom. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model shows real GDP growing at 2.5%.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 7, unchanged from August 5 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.76 percentage points to 0.82 percentage points.

Federal spending, elevated with the outbreak of Covid in 2020 remains higher than pre-Covid levels as does M2 Money printing.

And if you wonder why inflation is still going on, it is because the Federal government is still spending like crazy.

Another sign of economic health under Trump. The gap between 2-year and 30-year US yields has steepened to the widest in three years.

Good News! Purchase Mortgage Applications Rose 17 Percent Since Same Week Last Year (Mortgage Refis Surge 23 Percent From Previous Week)

The Fed didn’t try, but mortgage rates fell and mortgage applications rose 10.9% week-over-week.

Mortgage applications increased 10.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 8, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 10.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 23 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.67 percent last week, which spurred the strongest week for refinance activity since April. Borrowers responded favorably, as refinance applications increased 23 percent, driven mostly by conventional and VA applications. Refinances accounted for 46.5 percent of applications and as seen in other recent refinance bursts, the average loan size grew significantly to $366,400. Borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be more sensitive to rate movements.

Good News! Business Applications Booming As Inflation Remains Calm (No Negative Impacts From Tariffs)

Let the good times roll! Booming business applications under Trump and calm inflation.

The latest inflation report continues to show no negative impact from tariffs. Core goods prices were up 0.2% in July. They are up just 1.1% over the past 12 months and are actually up a lesser 0.8% since President Trump began phasing in tariffs.

Business applications are booming under Trump’s economy.

While consumer prices are calm (2.7% YoY).

Shelter inflation is higher than the average price increase (3.7% YoY).

Mortgage Applications Increased 3 Percent From Previous Week (Purchase Apps Rose 1 Percent WoW)

They can’t accuse Fed Chair Jerome Powell of trying too hard to help Donald Trump. Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy. As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77 percent. As a result …

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

And the number of sellers in the housing market is greatly outweighing the number of buyers.

Mortgage and housing economists should breathe a sigh of relief that Bidenomics is over, but I doubt it they will.

What The Fed Can’t Fix! Percentage Of 30-Year-Olds Both Married and Homeowners Lowest Since 1950 (Mortgage Rates Near Highest Since 2006)

The US housing market is finally slowing down in terms of price growth. But this is after 3 Federal government-fueled house price bubbles.

In addition to record-high housing prices, mortgage rates are higher than levels going back to 2006.

Throw in the “woke” movement, and we have a problem. The percentage of 30-year-olds who are both married and homeowners has plummeted to the lowest level since 1950.

Simply lowering interest rates won’t fix this problem. Much of the housing “crisis” is due to local and state level politicians and their restrictive housing policies. Like LA Mayor Karen “Venceremos Brigade” Bass allocating the burnt-down Pacific Palisades area on the Pacific Ocean to “affordable housing.”

July Jobs Report Factoids: Revisions Doomed BLS Commissioner McEntarfer, Native Born Workers Rose While Foreign Born Workers Declined, Federal Workers Declined For Sixth Straight Month

The July jobs reports for the US revealed some interesting factoids, such as the BLS Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, being fired. Note that McEntarfer was BLS Commissioner since January 29, 2024. But under McEntarfer, downward revisions were the norm except for election season (Oct 2024 – Dec 2024) when there were upward revisions. But once Trump was elected and took office, all jobs report revisions were negative.

Native born workers rose while foreign born workers declined.

And for the 6th straight month, Federal jobs declined.

And with the poor jobs report that will surely be revised upwards.

The market is pricing in a rate cut at the 09/17/2025 FOMC meeting.

Trump in the underworld (Washington DC).

The US Housing Market Is In A Price Bubble (Again)

Yes, the US housing market is in a price bubble. If we compared home price growth with median earnings.

The financial crisis was spawned by a home price bubble where home price growth was faster than median earnings growth (see Bubble 1). After home price growth cooled in 2007-2009, the cycle started again (Bubble 2). But the current bubble (Bubble 3) is related to the Covid outbreak and massive spending binge by Congress (and The Fed). Notice that median earnings dropped (green line) post Covid.

But while we have normalized home price growth and median earnings, the LEVELS are still unaffordable for millions of households.

Poor Bill Pulte (FHFA Director). He has to work with an uncooperative Fed under Foul Powell, and local politivcians like Greasy Gavin Newsom (Democrat Gov of California), JB Pritzker (Democrat Gov on Illinois), Kathy Hocul (Democrat Gov of New York), and the assorted lunatic Mayors like Karen Bass (D, Mayor Los Angeles), Zohran Kwame Mamdani (D, presumptive Mayor New York City), etc.