US Dollar Eroded-20% Under Biden/Harris Ring Of Fire (Federal Reserve Was Co-conspirator In Rampant Inflation)

The US has fallen into a Ring of Fire under Biden/Harris horrid economic policiies.

But Biden/Harris had help from their deep state partner, The Federal Reserve.

The purchasung power of the US dollar has fallen by a whopping -20% under Biden/Harris. No wonder Harris is afraid to talk to reporters about her plans.

The children in Congress went on a spending spree as a result of COVID resulting in record inflation.

The deep state’s financing arm, The Federal Reserve, certainly helped create inflation by ramping up M2 Money supply around Covid.

Of course, children in Congress and Harris/Walz will use ANY excuse to tax and spend (and borrow/spend). The most recent inflation report had CPI growng at 2.5% YoY resulting in a further decline of purchasing power of the US dollar of -2.5% YoY.

Harris/Walz fully intend to keep shoveling TRILLIONS into green energy transformation and supporting illegal immigrants.

Hard Landing! 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Suggests Coming Recession

Whenever the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope goes negative, it is following by positive slope … then recession. Like clockwork.

Following every recession since the 1970s, the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope has risen, then declined. This time around, the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve has remained negatively-slope long than usual suggesting a larger than normal snapback. Into a hard landing.

Democrats in particular love hard landings because that green lights them for massive wasteful spending.

The Morning After (The Harris/Walz Adventure)? 2-Year Treasury Yield Falls With Fed Rate Cuts (Mortgage Rates Decline)

Like in the film The Poseidon Adventure, we are living in “The Morning After.”

When The Fed lowered their target rate by 50 basis points yesterday, we saw the 2 year Trreasury rate take a plunge.

With a declining 2-year Treasury yield, we see the 10Y-2Y yield curve going positive.

Of course, mortgage rates are falling with declines in the Fed Funds target rate.

Rates will continue to decline.

If HarrsWalz are elected in two months, we will see a repeat of The Poseidon Adventure. Call it the Harris/Walz Adventure!

American Peronism: Kamala’s Plan to Ruin America’s Economy (Harris Is America’s Evita [Eva Peron])

08/24/2024•Mises WireDaniel Lacalle

Price controls, higher taxes, government intervention, and subsidies paid for by printing a constantly devalued currency.

These are the essential pillars of “21st century socialism” and the radical left Peronism that obliterated Argentina. These are also the main elements of the economic plan presented by Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. Undoubtedly, this is the most radical socialist economic plan ever announced by the Democrats.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Harris’s proposals will cost $1.95 trillion over 10 years. However, it emphasizes that if certain measures become permanent, this figure could increase to $2.25 trillion.

The Harris campaign has stated that these costs will be offset by a classic excuse of socialism in any election: “higher taxes on corporations and high earners.” This is, obviously, ludicrous, because there is no revenue measure that will cover the already bloated $2 trillion annual deficit and an added $2 trillion. The mantra of “higher taxes for the rich” always means higher taxes and more inflation, a hidden tax, for you.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has already warned of the fiscal disaster of the United States, with an annual deficit of 6% of GDP. Despite not accounting for a recession and projecting record tax revenues from 2024 to 2034, the CBO predicts an explosion in the budget deficit from $1.9 trillion to $2.8 trillion by 2034, even before factoring in Harris’s new spending plan. This means that the adjusted deficit will rise above 6.9 percent of GDP by 2034, almost twice the average of 3.7 percent over the previous 50 years.

Following the Harris plan, the United States public debt will likely increase by $24 trillion in a decade. As I have explained, there is no set of revenue measures that can bring $2 trillion per year in additional tax receipts, and tax hikes will harm both investment and growth.

An economy that generates an annual deficit of 6 percent of GDP to achieve a mere 2 percent annual growth is already on a dangerous path, and Harris’ plan would make it even worse.

Kamala Harris promises to cut inflation by spending and printing more money, reducing competition, and attacking businesses. It has never worked and never will because it is upside-down economics. Welcome to the US “Peronism.”.

Imagine all those United States citizens who have escaped Latin American or European economies impoverished by interventionism to find a better opportunity in the United States only to find that the same policies will be implemented by Harris.

The narrative of price gouging and greedflation is simply false. In 2023, profit margins in the grocery industry hit the lowest level since 2019, at 1.6%, according to the IMF. Corporations, even if they were stupid and reckless, cannot make all prices rise constantly. Competition would eat away at their market share; newcomers would eliminate them, and aggregate prices would fall. Furthermore, stores and businesses cannot make aggregate prices soar, maintain the increase, and consolidate it, which is the measure of inflation (CPI) we read every month. The only thing that can make all prices rise and continue increasing at a slower pace is printing money and eroding the purchasing power of the currency.

The only thing that can make aggregate prices rise constantly is the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency, which comes from massive government spending and printing currency to disguise fiscal imbalances.

Kamala Harris and her team know that their spending plan will make the national debt soar and that price controls do not reduce prices. In fact, these should not be called “price controls” but “limits to competition.” If corporations were the cause of inflation and price controls were the solution, Peronist Argentina would have enjoyed the lowest inflation in the world in the past decades.

Harris’ proposals to forgive debt are profoundly anti-social. They do not forgive any debt; they just add it to the national debt and make you pay for it. This enormous increase in public debt will be a burden for every American, particularly the poorest, with persistent inflation and lower real wages. US citizens have already endured negative real wage growth since January 2021, when Biden took office, according to the Federal reserve of St Louis. Expect worse.

Why does Harris promote the same policies that have failed everywhere? Promising free stuff and blaming others for the negative consequences is the defining strategy of socialist politicians.

Are you surprised to see how Germany, France, and other historically rich nations slump into stagnation, high debt, persistent inflation, enormous taxes, and the destruction of the middle class? Those policies are what Harris is promising. Who benefits? The vast government and its surrounding corporations reap the benefits.

Many people hold the belief that a nation cannot be considered socialist if it contains private companies. It makes no sense. State control does not limit itself to capital ownership but also to the imposition of increasingly restrictive laws, regulations, and confiscatory taxes. In fact, the government likes to absorb most of the wealth created by the private sector without the inconvenience of managing the businesses. Huerta de Soto defines socialism as “any system of institutional, methodical aggression against the free exercise of entrepreneurship” and that is precisely what Harris promises.

Higher taxes and more debt.

The government will print money to provide subsidies in a currency that is constantly losing value. It will blame stores and businesses for inflation. Interventionist policies will continue to erode the private sector. And they will repeat.

The makers of these policies are aware that they will negatively impact the economy, yet they will also engender a substantial number of enslaved citizens who rely on the government and must abide by its decisions. Voters see an alleged tsunami of free money but ignore the fact that they will pay for it through higher inflation, lower real wages, and diminishing opportunities for small businesses and families.

Yes, under Obama/Biden, then Biden/Harris,

The Harris team believes deficits do not matter and that the Federal Reserve can always disguise any budget imbalance. However, cracks have already appeared. Persistent inflation is the consequence of years of excessive spending and monetization. The next step is the risk of losing the US dollar as the world reserve currency when the world stops accepting the ever-increasing debt.

Under Obama/Biden and Biden/Harris, we have seen massive money printing and devaluation of the US Dollar. Trump/Pence too, but they were nailed with Covid. And the Democrat shut down off schools and local economies.

But all Harris (America’s Eva Peron) wants to do is dance. And not answer serious questions.

SuperCore! SuperCore Inflation Rises For 49th Straight Month As Economic Surprise Data Collapses

Well, the Trump/Biden CNN Presidential debate was a disaster … for Biden. It was the worst debate performance I have even seen. Even worse was the “victory” party where Jill Biden treated President Biden like a little child being potty-trained and shreiked that all Trump does is L:IED. How strange since ALL Biden does is lie. But enough of this.

But how about SuperCore inflation?

The last month has seen US Macro data collapsing at its fastest rate in years…

Source: Bloomberg

…which, many believe, will also drag down inflation (and it has been)…

Source: Bloomberg

Today, we get to see The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – which rose 0.1% MoM in May (after a revised +0.3% MoM for April) and in line with expectations. The headline PCE Price Index was unchanged MoM as expected as Durable Goods deflation trumped surging Services costs…

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, both headline and core PCE declined…

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, Durable Goods deflation is at its strongest in at least a decade…

Source: Bloomberg

More notably, the so-called SuperCore PCE rose 0.1% MoM, which saw YoY slow to 3.39%… which is awkwardly stagnant at elevated levels…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the 49th straight monthly rise in SuperCore prices with Healthcare costs soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

On a MoM basis, Income grew more than expected (+0.5% vs +0.2% exp) while spending rose less than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% exp)

Source: Bloomberg

Which accelerated both income and spending on a YoY basis (with the latter outpacing the former, of course)…

Source: Bloomberg

With wage pressures rising once again…

  • Government 8.5%, up from 8.4% but below the record high of 8.9%
  • Private 4.5% up from 4.2%

Source: Bloomberg

And after a series of revisions, the savings rate ticked up to 3.9% of DPI (from 3.7%) – the highest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which takes place against a background of the sixth straight month of rising government handouts (well it is an election year after all)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, while acyclical inflationary pressures continue to drift lower, cyclical inflationary pressures remain extremely elevated…

Source: Bloomberg

A very mixed bag but nothing screams ‘automatic’ rate-cuts… and SuperCore refuses to budge.

Biden Shrugged: US Housing Starts Fall To COVID Lockdown Lows (Multifamily Starts Down -51.7% YoY In May)

It begs the question: where are the 10+ million illegal immigrants living who have poured over the border under Binden/Mayorkas? Especially when 5+ units housing starts dropped -51.7% since last year (YoY) in May. And the trend under Biden looks terrible!

Despite ugly consumer confidence and soaring mortgage rates, analysts expected a small rebound in housing starts and building permits in May (after April’s disappointing misses). They were wrong… again… as both Starts and Permits plunged MoM (-5.5% MoM and -3.8% MoM respectively)…

Source: Bloomberg

That was the third monthly drop in permits (more forward looking) in a row. Worse still, April Housing Starts were revised lower (from +5.7% to +4.1%), making this miss even worse.

This dragged the SAARs for starts and permits to their lowest since the trough of COVID…

Source: Bloomberg

With Multifamily starts falling back near COVID lockdown lows…

  • Single-Family 982K SAAR, down 4.8% from 1,031K and the first sub-million print since October 2023
  • Multi-Family 278K, down 13.7% from 322K and the lowest since March’s 245K (which was the lowest print since covid crash)

Source: Bloomberg

And multi-family permits cratering to their lowest since Oct 2018…

  • Single-Family permits 949K SAAR, down 2.9% from 977K
  • Multi-Family permits 382K SAAR, down 6.1% from 407K

And with rate-cut expectations holding near their lows, there is no sign of recovery in home-building yet…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems reality is starting to set in for homebuilders…

Source: Bloomberg

As housing starts plummet, jobs seem to keep growing to record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Will any rate-cut actually move the dial here?

Biden Shrugged! US Economy Actually Lost -408k Jobs In May (Initial Claims Surge To 10-Month Highs As California Joblessness Soars)

Joe Biden is a dishonest politician, so it is no wonder that he ignores actual data. Like claiming that crime is down under his leadership, when it is actually large cities like New York and Los Angeles not reporting their crime data to the FBI.

Take the May jobs numbers. The BLS reports that 272k jobs were added. However, the more accurate Household Survery reported a loss of -408k jobs in May.

While the Establishment Survey did indeed report that 272K “jobs” were added, this number also included multiple job holders; stripping those out, we get that the actual number of “employed” workers plunged by -408K.

On the jobless claims side, the number of Americans applying for jobless benefits for the first time surged last week to 242k (up from 229k and well above the 225k exp). That is the highest since August 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

On an NSA basis, claims exploded higher.

The last three weeks have seen the largest surge in claims since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably this surge is very VERY similar to what we saw last year (but not the prior few years, so not a ‘seasonal’ pattern per se)…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in NSA claims was driven by California…

California leads the nation in initial jobless claims, thanks to Newsom’s $20 per hour minimum wage law for fast food restaurants. This one’s gonna hurt Californians for a long, long time.

Biden and Newsom WISH they were Atlas.

Mortgage Applications Rise 15.6% From Previous Week, But Purchase Applications Down -12% Over Past Year

Well, it was the first week of June. Mortgage applications usually peak in May, so we are on the historic “dark side of the moon” for mortgage demand.

Mortgage applications increased 15.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 7, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 15.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 26 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 19 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Beware of getting too excited about the19% WoW increase. It is 19% off an extremely low number.

The Refinance Index increased 28 percent from the previous week and was 28 percent higher than the same week one year ago. 

This charts sums up the seasonal component to prepays.

The Wreck Of The US Middle Class: America’s Paychecks Bigger Than 40 Years Ago, But Purchasing Power About The Same (Credit Card Delinquencies Highest Since 1991)

Under Bidenomics and Fed monetary “policies”, we now have the wreck of the US middle class.

To begin with, America’s paychecks are bigger than 40 years ago, but purchasing power of those larger paychecks is about the sames as it was 40 years ago. Great job Washington DC!!! … NOT!!!!

Meanwhile, credit card delinquencies are at the highest level since 1991.

Americans are feeling extreme financial stress.

Coping with Bidennomics and The Fed has been most difficult. Especially if you listened to Biden’s D-Day speech (almost stolen word-for-word from a Ronald Reagan speech).

Demented Joe Biden being led by the hand by his money-grubbing wife. “Joe, you will be here soon!”

Boom, Boom! ATL Fed Nowcast Plunges To 1.8% As Consumer Spending Estimate Collapses (Real Estate Construction Spending Leads Collapse In GDP)

Boom boom!

ATL Fed Nowcast plunges to 1.8% as their consumer spending estimate collapses – less than 3 weeks ago, they were forecasting 4.2% growth for Q2; a recession likely began in April.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.8 percent on June 3, down from 2.7 percent on May 31. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts for annualized second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth declined from 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent.

fff

Since I used The Animal’s version of the John Lee Hooker great tune “Boom Boom,” I will use another Animals tune for Joe Biden’s penchant for sniffing little girls. “Baby Let Me Take You Home.”

The Animals band. Not to be confused with the animals in the Biden Administration and Congress.

Job openings in April 2024 dipped to 8,059. Notice the trend (orange line) is below the trend set prior to Covid (red line).