The Fed’s Missouri Boat Ride! Housing Acquisition Index Rises 114.5% Under Biden As Housing Price Reductions Rise 70% YoY (House Price Growth Will Freeze)

I call this The Federal Reserve’s Missouri Boat Ride.

Meaning that The Fed has kept monetary stimulus in play for too long since late 2008 helping to lower mortgage rates from over 6% in November 2008 to 2.98% in November 2021. Then came “The Missouri Boat Ride” as The Fed signaled monetary tightening, leading to mortgage rates skyrocketing to their highest level since 2010.

The result of rising home prices AND mortgage rates? Housing acquisition prices (home prices * 30 year mortgage rates) have skyrocketed.

Between rising home prices and rising mortgage rates, we see that number of prices reductions increasing at nearly 70% YoY (chart courtesy of WolfStreet.com).

Of course, Congress and the media will never ask Janet Yellen (former Fed Chair [2013-2018] and current Treasury Secretary) WHY she kept massive monetary stimulus around for so long. Or why current Fed chair Powell did the same with Covid-related monetary stimulus.

Time to buy gold and silver??

Weekend Update! Gasoline Prices UP 101% Under Biden, Mortgage Rates UP 89%, Foodstuffs UP 58% (Crude Oil Futures UP 142%)

This is not the legacy that will endear President Biden to voters. Regular gasoline prices have risen 101% under Biden.

But it not just gasoline and diesel that are soaring (while the rest of us are sore!), CRB Foodstuffs are up 58% under Biden while the 30-year mortgage rate is up 89% under Biden.

And this morning, WTI crude futures are up +1.71%.

And up 142% under Biden.

Prices are sizzling and clobbering the American middle class and low wage workers. But former Federal Reserve Chair and current US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen never saw it coming.

Biden’s just killing us. And Powell is making up for Yellen’s keeping monetary stimulus too high for too long. Price? Mortgage rates are soaring.

US Gasoline And Food Prices Soar To All-time Highs As Fed Begins Removing Monetary Stimulus (10-year US Treasury Yield Jumps 8.7 BPS)

US gasoline prices just rose to an all-time high. Yes, even higher than the Dubya-era gasoline price surge of 2008.

Rising gasoline and diesel prices are helping drive up food prices to the highest level in history.

The proxy war the US is fighting in with Russia in Ukraine is helping drive up food prices. But at the core is Biden’s anti-fossil fuel drilling executive orders starting when Statist Joe (and The Fish) became President.

As The Fed begins unwinding their massive balance sheet, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 8.7 basis points.

Heartaches By The Number! Under Biden, Mortgage Refi Applications Down -82.4%, Purchase Applications Down -7.5% And Mortgage Rates Up+80.7% (Fed FINALLY Begins Removing Stimulus!)

Heartaches By The Number … for American households and mortgage lenders as The Federal Reserve begins FINALLY removing monetary stimulus.

Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 27, 2022.

The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 75 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Under Biden, mortgage refi applications are down -82.4%, purchase applications are down -7.5% and mortgage rates are up +80.7%.

Then we have this headline: “Fed Starts Experiment of Letting $8.9 Trillion Portfolio Shrink”

The Fed is capping monthly runoff at $47.5 billion — $30 billion for Treasuries and $17.5 billion for mortgage-backed securities — until September. Those thresholds will then double to a combined $95 billion. That compares to a peak of $50 billion a month when the Fed performed the exercise starting in 2017.

As expectation of Fed rate hikes increase, mortgage rates have soared like Tom Cruise’s Super Hornet aircraft from Top Gun: Maverick climbing over the steep mountain.

And mortgage rates are up a bit today.

Meanwhile, The Federal Reserve begins shrinking their balance sheet for the first time since Yellen and company started shrinking it under Trump.

March Madness! Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Soars To +20.55% YoY In March (Fastest In History) As Fed Keeps Monetary Stimulus In Place

Yes, its the housing market’s version of “March Madness!”

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for March was released this morning and it was a doozy. The Case-Shiller National home price index YoY accelerated to a whopping +20.55%.

And at +20.55%, it is the fastest price growth in history! Even the peak of the infamous 2000s housing bubble was only +14.51% in September 2005.

Why do we have historic highs in home price growth? The Federal Reserve’s monstrous Covid stimulus (green line) is still in place.

Washington DC is the slowest growing metro area in the US while Tampa FL, Phoenix AZ, Miami FL and Dallas TX are all above 30% YoY.

Let’s see what happens when The Fed FINALLY removes its Covid stimulus as mortgage rates rise.

Remember, Janet Yellen (who left monetary stimulus in place for too long under Obama) is now US Treasury Secretary.

Run For Cover! Banks Park Near Record Amount With Fed As Global Inflation Soars, Overnight Reverse Repo Operations Above $2 Trillion (Gasoline Prices Rise To Highest In History)

Run for cover!

Markets opened after a long (and expensive) Memorial Day weekend, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 8.1 basis points (to

Meanwhile, banks continue to park funds at The Federal Reserve in the form of reverse repos as global inflation soars.

And then we have US gasoline prices rising to the highest in history.

Its like banks know something that the rest of us don’t. Although we do know about the highest gasoline prices in history.

Memorial Day Update! US Dollar Declining, Gasoline UP 92.4% Under Biden, Food UP 60%, Rents UP 14.75x (Traveling Will Cost A Lot More! But So Does Renting)

Memorial Day weekend is one where families often travel to meet relatives and friends, or travel to Washington DC to remember those who have died in the service of our country.

But traveling has gotten a lot more expensive under Biden. Gasoline prices are up 92.4% under Biden, while food prices are up 60%. Those hamburgers and hot dogs for grilling are being replaced by … pizza? Or maybe plant-based products.

Zillow’s Rent Index All Homes YoY was only 0.6234% in February 2021, and has soared to 16.36% YoY under Biden. That is an increase of 14.75x. So, not only is it much more expensive to travel on Memorial Day weekend, but it is far more expensive to stay home in your rental property.

On the currency front, we are seeing the US Dollar falling (greenback line), along with the Yuan/USD cross currency. West Texas Intermediate Crude Cushing OK spot is at $115.07.

At least Venezuela and Iran are benefiting greatly by Biden’s energy policies, even if Americans are suffering. Perhaps this is the new foreign policy of Wynken (US VP Harris), Blynken (US SecState), and Nod (Biden).

Remembering my Uncle Jack Sanders who served in the Battle of The Bulge during World War II, winning an individual Silver Star for bravery and two Purple Hearts. He rose from “buck” private to First Sergeant by the end of WWII.

The Biden Bowl! US Personal Savings Declines -65% YoY In April As Inflation Rages (Credit Card Debt Soars As Personal Savings Collapses)

Americans’ Savings Rate Drops to Lowest Since 2008 as Inflation Bites.

Yes, inflation really bites. In fact, as US inflation is near the 40-year high, US personal savings declined -65% YoY as consumers try to cope with rising prices.

Its not only that personal savings is crashing in the face of inflation, revolving debt has soared as consumers try to cope with rising prices. I call this chart “The Biden Bowl.” Soaring consumer credit card debt with crashing personal savings.

Consumer Sentiment For Home Buying Falls To Lowest Point In History, Even Lower Than Housing Bubble Burst And Financial Crisis Of 2008 (Housing Too Expensive, Mortgage Rates Soaring, Inflation Roaring)

The numbers keep getting worse.

The University of Michigan Consumer Survey showed a decline in May to 58.4 (100 is baseline). Soaring inflation is a likely culprit.

But the truly horrible survey result is the UMich Buying Conditions for Houses, plunging to 45. The reason? Crazy, expensive house prices courtesy of The Federal Reserve and rising mortgages (also, courtesy of The Federal Reserve).

The buying conditions for houses is now the lowest in the history of the University of Michigan consumer survey. In fact, consumer sentiment for housing is far lower than during the awful housing bubble burst of 2008 and the subsequent financial crisis.

And the US economic surprise index has turned negative.

Here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell wielding his monetary bat called “Lucille.”

Simply Unaffordable! Why The US Mortgage Foreclosure Scare Was Just … A Scare (Fed Policies Drove Home Prices Into Outer Space Making Default Less Likely, But Crushing Affordability)

I remember this headline from CNBC from THU, OCT 14 2021: Foreclosures are surging now that Covid mortgage bailouts are ending, but they’re still at low levels.

But the foreclosure surge never materialized.

If we look at 90+ days late for mortgages (yellow line), we see that the surge in unemployment with the Covid outbreak and subsequent government shutdowns (red line) did not lead to a surge in mortgage foreclosures.

This situation is quite unlike 2008 when collapsing home prices and the subsequent surge in the unemployment rate led to a 90+ days late surge on mortgages (yellow line).

Difference between today and 2008? The Federal Reserve’s asset purchase (green line) surge happened twice AFTER the 2008 housing crash. Once in late 2008 through 2014, then a second, bigger surge in March 2020 after the Covid outbreak. One big difference is the surge in home prices, home price growth was 3.69% YoY in December 2019 and skyrocketed to 19.80% as of February 2022. This translates to a massive increase in homeowner equity, leading to a lower probability of default.

So, there you go. Powell and The Federal Reserve made housing unaffordable for millions of Americans, but The Fed did help thwart another mortgage default crisis. BUT we will see what happens with future rate hikes from The Fed.

Here is Attom’s US Foreclosure Starts chart. Yes, that is hardly a surge, although foreclosure starts did rise in Q1 2022.

So, The Fed has helped make housing simply unaffordable. Look at the growth of REAL home prices relative to REAL average hourly earnings.

The kids at The Fed aren’t too sharp when it comes to making housing affordable.