Mortgage Rates And Jobs Reports: Mortgage Rates Rise Above 7% On Surprise Jobs Report

The latest jobs report was like the Cornell Hurd song, “It’s just the whiskey talking.” Except that this time it’s just the Biden Administration talking … and their jobs reports have been corrected/revised repeatedly.

The latest jobs report saw Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 256k and mortgage rates (conforming) rose above 7%. But what happens when the recent jobs report is revised downwards?

I don’t care what Biden did as President. Now Trump can do it correctly.

Off To A Bad Start! Mortgage Purchase Applications Declined 7% Since Last Week, Down 15% Since Same Week Last Year

Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the New Year’s holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Purchase application activity is up about 2% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 15% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Then we have this diddy from The Epoch Times where a mortgage company allegedly provided a loan to a household that had 33 debts in collection. Hey, I thought under Senator Elizabeth Warren’s brainchild these reckless lending practices were over!

One will be gone on January 20 and I wish the other one would be gone too.

Riders On The Storm! Buying Conditions For Housing Rises To 39, But Remains In The Doldrums (Home Prices UP 35.4% Under Biden, Mortgage Rates UP 148%)

We are all riders on the Biden housing storm.

Existing-home sales have finally started to improve on a seasonally adjusted basis after a three-year decline.

Cause? Raging home prices combined with higher than normal mortgage rates. Home prices are up 35.4% under Biden while conforming 30Y mortgage rates are up 148%.

Mortgage Applications Decreased 21.9% From Two Weeks Earlier, Purchase Applications Down 48% From Two Weeks Earlier

Well, its that time of year again. Mortgage applications drop to their lowest levels after Christmas until New Years Eve. Then mortgage applications pick up in the new year.

Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 27, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the Christmas holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 21.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 55 percent compared with two weeks ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with two weeks ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 48 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 36 percent from two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 62 percent from two weeks ago and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

US Home Prices Surge To 17th Consecutive All-Time High (NYC Leads Nation, Tampa Last)

US home prices surged to the 17th consecutive all-time high.

US home prices in the 20 largest cities rose 0.32% MoM in October (the latest data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller), considerably hotter than the 0.22% rise expected. However, despite the MoM beat, the pace of annual acceleration has declined to its slowest since Sept 2023. At 3.62% YoY.

Which metro area had the highest gain? New York City at 7.27%. The lowest gain? Tampa at 0.39%.

(Not So Sweet Home) Chicago PMI Falls To 36.9, Manufacturing Index Slumps To -10.71 As Federal Spending Slows

Sweet home Chicago … NOT!

The Biden/Harris economic “miracle” was simply massive Federal spending (and borrowing) combined with hiring Federal workers. This can be seen in the following chart of Chicago Fed manufacturing index compared with Federal spending. Great times in the first months of 2021, but as Federal spending slowed, so did the manufacturing index. Last seen at -10.71 in December 2024.

Joe Biden, sold his soul for family wealth at the crossroads in Delaware.

Inflation Still Raging! 30Y Mortgage Rate Rose 141% Under Biden/Harris

Inflation soared under Biden/Harris, primarily due to their outrageous wasteful government spending.

US government spening soared with Covid and politicians enjoyed the unbridled spending.

Let’s see if Trump and Republicans can do any better.

The Brave New World? Job Finding Rate Collapses As Philly Fed Business Conditions Plummet

It is a brave new world as the US attempts an Argentina-like shift from an over-regulated, corrupt economy to a more free economy. While Argentina has Javier Milei, the US is stuck with greedy Democrats and RINOs and their bloated spending sinking any attempt to cut wasteful spending.

So as we transition from woefully corrupt and demented Joe Biden to Donald Trump, the labor market is … terrible. The job finding rate of unemployed workers has collapsed.

This occurred as the Philly Fed Business Outlook plummeted.

Here is Javier Milei of Argentina and The View’s image of a libertarian leader, Javier Bardem from No Country For Old Men.

Housing Starts Decreased To 1.289 Million In November, Down -10.2% YoY

Government didn’t build this country. The private sector did.

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,011,000; this is 6.4 percent above the revised October figure of 950,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 264,000.

And down -10.2% year-over-year.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,505,000. This is 6.1 percent above the revised October rate of 1,419,000, but is 0.2 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,508,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 972,000; this is 0.1 percent above the revised October figure of 971,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in November.

As we watch Biden and Democrats attempt to demolish the country as Biden leaves office. Let’s see how many criminals Biden will pardon on the way out … like the Jan 6th “select” committee of Adam Schiff, Adam Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, Bennie Thompson, etc.

BIG Bubbles? Biden/Democrats Spending Spree + FED = Massive Asset Bubbles = OVERVALUATION In Stock Market And Housing (Buffett Indicator, SP500 Mean Reversion, Shiller PE Ratio, CaseShiller To Gov Spending)

Apparently, the late Hawaiian crooner Don Ho foresaw Biden’s irresponsible spending spree. That is, BIG BUBBLES.

Let’s start with the Buffett Indicator (Warren, not Jimmy!). It indicates that the stock market is STRONGLY OVERVALUED.

The S&P 500 Mean Reversion Model also shows the stock market to be STRONGLY OVERVALUED.

How about the Shiller P/E Ratio? Also showing strong overvaluation.

House prices under Biden have exploded partly due to the outrageous Federal spending following COVID.

The Feral Reserve also had a hand in the housing bubble. While mortgage rates remain high (relative to the Trump years), The Fed’s balance sheet remains elevated.

To be sure, some Republicans were complicit in the spending spree. But mostly it was Democrats and the Biden/Harris Administration … which is still doling out millions.