Hallelujah, I love this economy so! Of course, former First Lady Jill Biden is on the national tour trashing the economy saying it was “perfect” under Joe Biden.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 49 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index increased 14 percent from the previous week and was 88 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Compared to the prior week’s data, which included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage application activity increased last week, driven by an uptick in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional refinance applications were up almost 8 percent and government refinances were up 24 percent as the FHA rate dipped to its lowest level since September 2024. Conventional purchase applications were down for the week, but there was a 5 percent increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek lower downpayment loans. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of 2024’s pace as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve gradually.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.33 percent from 6.32 percent, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 9, unchanged from June 5 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from -2.2 percent to -1.9 percent.
Biden relied on government hiring and Fed’s money printing to drive the US economy. And then the gas ran out.
Republicans are trying to lock in Trump’s tax cuts and Democrats are resisting. We now know that DOGE is trying to end the wasteful spending in DC. But I would really like to see tax rates on the middle class fall.
The wealth gap between the top 1% of taxpayers and the bottom 50% of taxpayers is enormous. And has gotten worse since 1990.
Meanwhile. to fight off the temporary effects of the tariff war, Trump is urging Fed Chair Powell to cut rates.
Powell will likely NOT cut rates. But what does “Lunatic Liz” Warren say about rate cuts??
Obama/Biden/Harris/Schumer/Pelosi have let the US be the punks for China. Trump is simply trying to level the playing field and China’s Xie doesn’t like the new equilibrium.
VIX Index fell by 18.7 points yesterday … largest one-day decline in history.
The correlation between stock prices and bond yields has returned to positive territory — hinting at a period of distress in equities and a regime shift in equity and bond markets where recession fears, rather than inflation, may be starting to drive direction of both. The correlation between the two asset classes was positive for the better part of 20 years prior to the pandemic, suggesting equities trended in the direction of yields as inflation mostly coincided with growth. Stocks held a negative correlation to yields throughout most of the 1980s and 1990s, when inflation hurt stocks — and that phenomenon returned for the 2022-24 bear market and recovery period.
Notably, major stock corrections occurred each time the correlation jumped out of its primary regime.
German 10-year bond yields are trading above euro interest rate swaps for the first time in history (-12.62), a watershed moment for these markets that underlines just how much investors have soured on government debt.
Bund yields +30bps today – the biggest spike on record going back to 1990.
Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 20.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 22 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index increased 37 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Thank God the adults are in charge in DC instead of the children we saw at Trump’s speech last night.
Trump inherited a brittle economy from “The Fool” Joe Biden. And it is shown up.
The Trump Administration is fighting the remnants of Biden’s policies by cutting spending (DOGE) and deregulation.
All this has resulted in a soaring US Dollar.
Tarot cards have officially renamed “The Fool” card as “The Biden.” Although in Washington DC, there is no shortage of fools (see Maxine Waters (D-CA) and Rashida Talib (D-MI).
We are now seeing the aftermath of Biden’s failed, top-down, Soviet-style economic policies (or follicies). And it is grim. Bidenomics is now fully exposed like The Fully Month. Except this is The Full Joe!
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent.
Another sign of Biden’s failed, top-down cronynomics is housing. Pending home sales fell to 70.6.
Elon Musk, who Democrats consider to be The Borg King, and DOGE have laid-off many Federal workers. Today’s jobless claims report revealed that over 2 million Federal workers filed for unemployment benefits.
DOGE has saved taxpayers over $143 BILLION thus far.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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