Into The Mystic? Mortgage Applications Decrease 3.9% In Latest MBA Weekly Survey (Purchase Apps Drop 15%)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 30, 2025. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Most mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.92 percent and staying in the 6.8 to 7 percent range since April.

Biden/Harris/Yellen’s gross economic mismanagement reminds me of the song “Into The Mystic.” Because it requires a mystic to determine WHO was running the Biden/Harris adminstration and using the autopen.

CC Rider? MBS Current Coupon (CC) Spreads Widen From Treasuries, Gold, Silver And Copper UP

CC Rider! 30Y MBC Current Coupon (CC) spreads is widening.

And metals are along for the ride! Gold and silver are soaring!

What about Copper?

Glad All Over! AI Contributes Massive Amount To GDP Growth As Median Home Price Growth Contracts

I am glad all over … because the AI boom is delivering a record contribtion to US GDP.

And US home prices are contracting making housing more affordable.

I don’t care what you did when you lived in Fort Worth, but at least home prices are contracting.

Core PCE Fell In April To Lowest Since April 2021, +2.5% YoY (Fed M2 Money Printing UP 4.3% YoY)

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – fell once again in April to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5% YoY.

And The Fed keeps on printing money!

Supercore inflation is down to -0.023 MoM.

The Fed is thinking that they can help.

30Y Treasury Yield Headed Towards Highest Since 2007 (US Yield Curve Significantly Steeper Than Under Biden)

US 30y bond yields are heading toward their highest level since 2007.

The yield curve has finally normalized!

And significantly steeper in 2025.

Later and shallower rate cuts are being priced.

New Home FHA Mortgage Share Surges As Debt-To-Income Ratios Surge (New-home Loan Sizes Fell To 2021 Levels)

The not shocking news out of DC: The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will “Massively” Increase Near-Term Deficits, Add $5 Trillion In Debt. The surprising news? New home FHA Mortgage Share has surged!

On the not surprising news front: FHA debt-to-income ratios have surged (the surge started under Biden).

New-home loan sizes have fallen to 2021 levels.

Stock Market Soars As China Flinches! (NASDAQ 100 Highest Since Mid February)

Well, U.S. and China reached an agreement to lower tariffs in a 90-day cool-off period. Despite China claiming they would NEVER agree to tariffs! The result? The NASDAQ 100 rose to its highest level since mid-February.

So much for the MSNBC/CNN doomsayers.

Delinquency Rate On US Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) For offices SURGED To 10.3% In April (Near Highest EVER)

The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SURGED to 10.3% in April, near the highest EVER.

Moreover, the multifamily delinquency rate spiked 113bps in April, to 6.57%, the highest since 2015.

Doge’d/Cloward-Piven? Biden/Yellen Left Trump With A Massive Problem (Maturing Debt, Rising Interest On Federal Debt, Crashing Trade Balance)

Doge is necessary to get close to closing the budget gap (tax receipts – spending). Biden left Trump and the US with an untenable fiscal situation (think Cloward/Piven). Extremely large debt load with debt maturing over the next couple of years. Thanks to former Treasury Secretary Janet “The Snake” Yellen government funding formula using ST government debt. And its time to pay the piper to pay for Biden’s overspending and Yellen’s Treasury mismanagement.

Most of the Treasury debt that Treasury Secretary Bessent must refinance is short-term.

And with interest rates higher under Trump/Bessent than Biden/Yellen, US Interest Payments on Public Debt is expected to keep rising.

And US trade balance fell to -140.5.

So, were Biden’s economic policies (and Yellen’s Treasury mismanagement) an intentional Cloward-Piven strategy?

Here are Columbia sociologists Cloward and Piven attending a bill signing by President Bill Clinton.

Doge’d! Federal Job Hires Decline, Native-born Jobs Increase (Fed Likely To Keep Rates The Same)

The April Jobs report blew away the tariff crash hysteria. 177k jobs were added, far better than the doomsayers predicted. Even better, more jobs went to native-born workers than foreign-born workers. Even better still, Federal jobs decreased (thanks to Doge).

The US labor market under the Biden administration “grew” almost entirely on the back of “foreign-born” workers, who – as we also first revealed and eventually was widely accepted – were primarily illegal aliens. But in April, we saw a reversal with native-born workers growing and foreign-born workers declining.