Fed Minutes Flag Chance of Earlier Hikes, Balance-Sheet Rundown (When Jay Powell Speaks, People Listen [Dow Drops, 10Y T-yield Increases])

Federal Reserve officials said a strengthening economy and higher inflation could lead to earlier and faster interest-rate increases than previously expected, with some policy makers also favoring starting to shrink the balance sheet soon after.

“Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated,” according to minutes published Wednesday of the Dec. 14-15 meeting of the U.S. central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, when it pivoted to a more aggressive inflation-fighting stance.

“Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate,” the minutes said.

The S&P 500 stock index extended declines following the release and was on track for its biggest loss in more than a month. Treasuries also extended losses and the dollar pared its decline.

At the conclusion of the December meeting, the FOMC announced it would wind down the Fed’s bond-buying program at a faster pace than first outlined at the previous meeting in early November, citing rising risks from inflation. The new schedule puts the central bank on track to conclude purchases in March.

And with the minutes released, the Down dumped.

And the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 5.3 bps on the release.

When Jerome Powell speaks, people listen.

Tiny Or BIG Bubbles? Buffett Indicator, Shiller CAPE At Dangerous Levels Thanks To Fed And Their Champagne Policies

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting should have a Lawrence Welk bubble machine operating, particularly for their announcements.

When we look at the Buffett Indicator, we can see how The Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policies (or follycies) are driving up stocks to unsustainable levels that may not survive without The Fed’s “Do Ho Big Bubble Policies.”

How about the Shiller CAPE (Cyclically-adjusted Price/Earnings) ratio? While not up to dot.com levels yet, the Shiller CAPE ratio is climbing with the assistance of The Fed and their insane money printing.

How about house prices? The Case-Shiller National home price index is far above the level last scene during the housing bubble of 2005-2007. Again, with a little help from The Federal Reserve.

I can’t wait to see how the equity market and housing market reacts IF The Fed actually follows through with reducing monetary stimulus. Probably not just adding more stimulus, just reinvesting the Treasury and MBS proceeds (aka, not shrinking the balance sheet).

Speaking of Lawrence Welk and his Champagne Music Makers, watch the blazing-hot electric guitar work worthy of Steve Morse or Jimmy Page in this video.

Here is the new logo for The Federal Reserve.

5-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since Fed COVID Intervention As Canada 10Y Rises 18.7 BPS (Gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum Rise)

Treasury yields rose a second day, with five-year rates hitting the highest since before the pandemic took hold in the U.S., amid increasing conviction that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at least three times beginning in May.

The five-year Treasury note’s yield climbed as much as 3.8 basis points to 1.392%, the highest since Feb. 20, 2020, while 30-year yields bumped up toward their 200-day moving average.

Yields across the curve are rising for a second straight day, after Monday’s selloff lifted the 10-year note’s yield by nearly 12 basis points in its worst start to a year since 2009. The two-year yield topped 0.80% for the first time since March 2020.

At the 10-year mark, we see Canada’s sovereign notes rising 18.7 basis points.

Also at the 10 year mark, we see the US 1-year breakeven inflation rate (red line) surging.

The US Treasury actives curve and Dollar Swaps curve remain steeply upward sloping.

And on the crypto and gold front, gold surged this morning after tanking in the evening, while Ethereum (blue) is doing quite well along with Bitcoin.

My favorite non-bond, non-alt investment chart. The S&P 500 index charted against The Fed’s M2 Money Stock.

Following my friend Jesse’s habit of posting great French food dishes, here is one from my favorite Parisian eatery, Le Duc de Richelieu. Mmmmmmm.

RIP, Hap Jacobs.

Pfizer’s Covid Booster Shot for Younger Teens Wins FDA Clearance, Stock Drops (But Pfizer Underperformed S&P 500 Index Since Fed COVID Stimulus)

You would think that an FDA approval to give booster shots to millions of new patients would send their stock soaring. It didn’t Pfizer dropped along with the S&P 500 index.

Despite the growth of COVID cases in the US (blue dashed line), Pfizer stock has only gone up by “only” 88% since March 2020. The S&P 500 index rose by 100%.

I under what Pfizer’s performance would be if The Fed wasn’t blowing a hurricane wind at the back of the market.

Just Hedge Funds And The Blues: Why Can’t Hedge Funds Beat The S&P 500 (Or The Federal Reserve)?

Just hedge funds and the blues. Or hedge funds got the blues in 2021.

2021 saw the S&P 500 index generate a return of 28.7%. Much of it thanks to The Federal Reserve “stimulypto” or excessive monetary easing.

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But only three hedge funds beat the S&P 500 index: Senvest, Impala and SR. Thanks to fees (trading and management), the other hedge funds underperformed the S&P 500 index. And underperformed The Fed!

Melvin Capital was the worst performing hedge fund of the ones examined.

Yes, hedge funds had the blues in 2021 with only 3 hedge funds beating the S&P 500 index.

Welcome to 2022!!

Can The Crypto Ethereum Hedge Against Inflation? (Inflation Rate Highest In 40 Years)

Inflation is the highest in 40 years. There used to be a lot of discussion about hedging against inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, but discussion subsided as inflation cooled in the US. But now it is roaring back as Fed monetary stimulus continues unabated and The Federal government continues to spends like crazy.

So, how do we protect ourselves against inflation caused by Federal government policies (or follicies)? How about cryptocurrencies like Ethereum?

Ethereum really started to take off as US inflation took off. Not a perfect fit (or hedge), but on average Ethereum has kept up with inflation.

If you believe in technical analysis, Ethereum is in the 3rd wave on the downside.

But if you believe the Ichimoku Cloud, Ethereum lies BELOW the cloud indicating that Ethereum is likely to rise.

Bear in mind that Biden’s energy policies have created large increases in energy prices which lead to large increases in other products such as food prices. Again, not all inflation is due to Federal policies. Arabica coffee prices are driven by droughts and excessive rainfall, etc. But inflation causes a rise in agriculture prices due to transportation cost increases, increases in fertilizer prices (thank to natural gas price increases), and panic buying by consumers.

Despite what Federal officials jawbone about, inflation has momentum and is unlikely to swiftly subside, particularly if the Build Back (Inflation) Better Act passes in 2022.

Remember, consumer purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined dramatically since the creation of The Federal Reserve System in 1913. The Fed isn’t going away and neither is wasteful Federal spending, like BBB.

Protect yourself! Or at least Treat Yo Self!

Should Speaker Pelosi Replace Cramer At CNBC Investing Club? (Insider Trading Of Impending Regulations And Government Spending IS Insider Information And Should Be ILLEGAL)

I thought US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was going to retire, but now it looks like she wants to keep inside trading with information about regulation and government spending that investors don’t have.

Today, her investments were released for the last two weeks of December.

Largely, her investments were in call options for Disney, Saleforce, Roblox, Micron and Google (Alphabet).

I would prefer that she retire and replace Cramer on CNBC’s Mad Money. So she could bang the gong instead of her gavel. Or call it CNBC Investing Club with Nancy Pelosi.

Her defense that she should be allowed to invest in stocks and options since the US is a free-market economy was comical at best, and extremely hypocritical at worst.

US Treasury Yield Curve Now Back Where It Stated With Biden At The Helm (Inflation Crushing America And The Yield Curve)

It has been almost a year since Joe Biden has been President of the United States and a Democrat majority took control of The House and Senate. And what has happened to the US Treasury yield curve slope over the past year?

The yield curve is back where it started. There was the “honeymoon effect” where the curve slope rose. After all, Biden was Obama’s Vice President for 8 years and The Democrats has promised so much in the 2020 election. But by early April, the reality of the massive Federal spending (combined with Fed Stimulypto) began showing what was feared: inflation (blue line) started to grow at a rapid rate of speed. With inflation now at 6.8% YoY,

In fairness to Biden, The Federal Reserve has been overstimulating the economy since The Federal Reserve since Ben Bernanke and the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) dropped the hammer on The Fed Funds Target Rate once the rate hit 5.25% in September 2007. They kept cutting it reached 25 basis points (or 0.25%) in December 2008. In August 2008, Bernanke and Company began their “Quantitative Easing” or asset purchasing programs. Between The Fed’s Target Rate and QE, The Fed has continued to overstimulate markets ever since. Under Biden, The Fed Funds Target Rate remains at 0.25% and The Fed’s Balance sheet has grown to $8.79 Trillion (bigger than the entire economies of Japan and Germany put together!).

How about housing? Home prices are growing at 19% YoY while rents are growing at 12.65% YoY.

Energy prices have risen dramatically under Biden. Gasoline is up 46% despite a slight reprieve recently. WTI crude prices are up 64%.

How about food? Beef prices are up 20% and chicken prices are up 10%.

On a positive note, the S&P 500 index has soared … thanks has soared during Biden’s term thanks to Fed stimulus and Federal spending on COVID.

The Build Back Better Act if passed (in its entirety or on a piecemeal basis) will lead to even MORE inflation.

Perhaps Biden’s spokesperson Jen Psaki can recreate the Biden Administration as a lovable, hilarious family like the comic strip Gasoline Alley with old Joe Biden as Skeezix. And insider-trading star, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as the family matriarch.

The Great Distortion! Since COVID And Fed Hysteria, First Gold Then Bitcoin, Then Ethereum Surged While The US Dollar Declined Then Rallied

The global economy has certainly been turned on its head by the COVID outbreak in early 2020. Not so much by the virus itself, but by Central Bank hysteria in terms of rate lowering and balance sheet expansion. Which The Fed has not yet unwound.

Let’s look at what has happened since the mini-recession caused by COVID in early 2020. The shortest recession in US history, a measly 2 months. The Fed expanded its balance sheet from $4.17 million in February 2020 to $8.79 million today. That is, The Fed over doubled the size of their balance sheet in reaction to the shortest recession in US history. Overreaction much?

What has happened since the mini-recession and The Fed’s massive overreaction?

First, gold (gold line) surged then calmed down. Then cryptocurrency Bitcoin (while line) surged, then calmed down, then surged again only to calm down again. Then crypto Ethereum surged, calmed, surged, calmed. Meanwhile the US Dollar Index crashed only to start rising again.

The Fed’s overreaction and failure to withdraw excessive stimulus has led to the rise of alternatives to the deflating dollar due to inflation.

When will The Fed ACTUALLY start removing the overreaction stimulus? Let’s get it started.

Perhaps only April Ludgate can kill The Fed’s overreaction stimulus.

U.S. Inflation-Adjusted Spending Stagnates To 0% Growth As Prices Surge (Core PCE Deflator Rises To 4.7% YoY, Highest Since 1989 Implying A Taylor Rule Rate Of 11.84%)

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator numbers for November were released this morning and the print was a whopping 4.7% YoY, the highest rate since 1989.

Meanwhile, U.S. consumer spending, adjusted for inflation (aka, REAL personal spending), stagnated in November as the fastest price gains in nearly four decades eroded purchasing power. Stagnated to 0.

Purchases of goods and services, after adjusting for higher prices, were little changed following a 0.7% gain in October, Commerce Department figures showed Thursday.

And as Paul Harvey would say, here is the rest of the story.

Core PCE growth YoY of 4.68% implies a Fed Funds target rate of 11.84%. Powell and the gang have the target rate at 0.25%. But the Taylor Rule doesn’t take into account the latest FEAR raging in Washington DC … the Omicron variant. Just another excuse for The Fed to do nothing and let asset bubbles blow out of control.

Tiny bubbles? How about HUGE bubbles!