Florida, Delaware, and South Carolina Record The Worst Foreclosure Rates In 2025 As Florida Home Prices Deflate (Ft Myers FLA Leads FLA In Home Price Correction)

While its not the 2009, we do have a house price bubble that is deflating as The Fed slows M2 Money growth. However, we are witnessing rising foreclosure rates.

Foreclosure activity increased in 2025, reflecting a continued normalization of the housing market following several years of historically low levels,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “While filings, starts, and repossessions all rose compared to 2024, foreclosure activity remains well below pre-pandemic norms and a fraction of what we saw during the last housing crisis. The data suggests that today’s uptick is being driven more by market recalibration than widespread homeowner distress, with strong equity positions and more disciplined lending continuing to limit risk.

Foreclosure starts on the rise nationwide

Lenders started the foreclosure process on 289,441 U.S. properties in 2025, up 14 percent from 2024, up 213 percent from the pandemic-era low in 2021, but down 14 percent form 2019 and down 86 percent from a peak of 2,139,005 in 2009.

States that saw the greatest number of foreclosure starts in 2025 included Texas (37,215 foreclosure starts); Florida (34,336 foreclosure starts); California (29,777 foreclosure starts); Illinois (15,010 foreclosure starts); and New York (13,664 foreclosure starts).

Those metropolitan statistical areas with a population greater than 1 million that saw the greatest number of foreclosure starts in 2025 included New York, NY (14,189 foreclosure starts); Chicago, IL (13,312 foreclosure starts); Houston, TX (13,009 foreclosure starts); Miami, FL (8,936 foreclosure starts); and Los Angeles, CA (8,503 foreclosure starts).

Bank repossessions increase year over year

Lenders repossessed 46,439 properties through foreclosures (REO) in 2025, up 27 percent from 2024 but down 68 percent from 143,955 in 2019, the last full year before pandemic-related declines, and down 96 percent from a peak of 1,050,500 in 2010.

States that saw the greatest number of REOs in 2025 included Texas (5,147 REOs); California (4,030 REOs); Pennsylvania (2,975 REOs); Florida (2,869 REOs); and Illinois (2,768 REOs).

Those metropolitan statistical areas with a population greater than 1 million that saw the greatest number of REOs in 2025 included Chicago, IL (2,033 REOs); New York, NY (1,462 REOs); Houston, TX (1,381 REOs); Detroit, MI (1,105 REOs); and Philadelphia, PA (1,100 REOs).

Florida, Delaware, and South Carolina record the worst foreclosure rates in 2025

States with the worst foreclosure rates in 2025 were Florida (1 in every 230 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Delaware (1 in every 240 housing units); South Carolina (1 in every 242 housing units); Illinois (1 in every 248 housing units); and Nevada (1 in every 248 housing units).

Rounding out the top 10 states with the worst foreclosure rates in 2025, were New Jersey (1 in every 273 housing units); Indiana (1 in every 302 housing units); Ohio (1 in every 307 housing units); Texas (1 in every 319 housing units); and Maryland (1 in every 326 housing units).

Lakeland, Columbia, and Cleveland post the worst metro foreclosure rates in 2025

Among 225 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the worst foreclosure rates in 2025 were Lakeland, FL (1 in every 145 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Columbia, SC (1 in every 165 housing units); Cleveland, OH (1 in every 187 housing units); Cape Coral, FL (1 in every 189 housing units); and Atlantic City, NJ (1 in every 192 housing units).

Metro areas with a population greater than 1 million, including Cleveland that had the worst foreclosure rates in 2025 were: Jacksonville, FL (1 in every 200 housing units); Las Vegas, NV (1 in every 210 housing units); Chicago, IL (1 in every 214 housing units); and Orlando, FL (1 in every 217 housing units).

Average time to foreclose decreases

U.S. properties foreclosed in the fourth quarter of 2025 had been in the foreclosure process an average of 592 days, a 3 percent decrease from the previous quarter and a 22 percent decrease from a year ago.

States with the longest average time to foreclose in Q4 2025 were Louisiana (3,461 days); New York (1,998 days); Hawaii (1,760 days); Connecticut (1,600 days); and Kansas (1,594 days).

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Q4 2025 Foreclosure Activity Key Takeaways

There was a total of 111,692 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in Q4 2025, up 10 percent from the previous quarter and up 32 percent from a year ago.
Nationwide in Q4 2025, one in every 1,274 properties had a foreclosure filing.

December 2025 Foreclosure Activity Key Takeaways

Nationwide in December 2025, one in every 3,163 properties had a foreclosure filing.
States with the worst foreclosure rates in December 2025 were New Jersey (one in every 1,734 housing units with a foreclosure filing); South Carolina (one in every 1,917 housing units); Maryland (one in every 1,961 housing units); Delaware (one in every 2,044 housing units); and Florida (one in every 2,119 housing units).
28,269 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process in December 2025, up 19 percent from the previous month and up 46 percent from a year ago.
Lenders completed the foreclosure process on 5,953 U.S. properties in December 2025, up 53 percent from the previous month and up 101 percent from a year ago.

Conclusion

ATTOM’s Year-End 2025 Foreclosure Market Report shows that U.S. foreclosure activity increased in 2025, with foreclosure filings, starts, and bank repossessions all rising compared to 2024, signaling a continued shift toward more normalized market conditions. Despite the annual increases, foreclosure activity remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels and far below peaks seen during the last housing crisis. December 2025 and Q4 2025 data also showed increased foreclosure activity on both a monthly and annual basis.

Florida home prices are tanking with Fort Myers leading the collapse at -11.9% YoY.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac MBS Buying Raises Rate-Vol Tail-Risks ($200 Billion In Agency MBS Generates 30-Year Rate Of 5.99%)

President Trump ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to operate like The Federal Reserve. Buying assets to manipulate interest rates. In this case, F&F have been ordered to buy $200 billion of agency MBS.

President Donald Trump’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion of agency MBS is supportive for Treasuries at the margin, but it also increases traditional mortgage hedging dynamics in rate markets.

Thursday’s Truth Social post triggered an immediate snap tighter in mortgages, led by the belly and lower coupons. By pulling MBS spreads tighter and crowding out real-money buyers, Fannie and Freddie’s purchases would push incremental demand into Treasuries as the next-best duration substitute, putting a modest bid under the belly of the curve.

However, execution and the ultimate size of purchases is still unclear, as my colleague Alyce Andres noted. If the government-sponsored enterprises GSEs stagger purchases, and signal an ultimate increase above the announces $200 billion, further tightening should occur. They can fund a lot of the buys from existing liquidity portfolios, though there’s a path where they could issue short-term debt to preserve operating buffers and could nudge repo wider at the margin.

The bigger transmission channel is hedging, as highlighted by colleagues Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman. Unlike the Fed, the GSEs actively hedge MBS holdings, shedding duration by paying fixed rates in swaps and using swaptions to manage the negative convexity and vega risks embedded in mortgages. That matters for swap spreads and for volatility, especially in the belly.

That’s why GSE MBS purchases don’t have to be huge to change the feel in rate markets. The post-Global Financial Crisis regime dulled the classic convexity feedback loop because the Fed held such a large amount of agency MBS and didn’t hedge it, while the GSEs shrank their portfolios. Trump’s directive risks bringing more of that regime back.

A recent note out of Goldman Sachs frames it cleanly: A $200 billion build could lift the active convexity-hedger footprint by about 25%. The street then starts front-running the mechanical flows — paying in selloffs, receiving in rallies — which makes breakouts more likely even if day-to-day ranges look calm, Goldman added.

Positioning makes the setup more precarious. JPMorgan already saw mortgage valuations as a “bit snug” before the announcement, while BofA flagged that rates market had recently added fresh belly shorts sitting against a backdrop of benchmark funds still overweight MBS versus IG.

That mix can keep the initial tightening sticky, but it also raises the odds of sharp reversals if the market decides the purchasing flows are slower, smaller, or more heavily hedged than hoped.

Fannie and Freddie’s retained portfolio are soaring along with the duration gap.

The effect on mortgage rates has so far has been negligible. The 30-year conforming mortgage just fell below 6% at 5.99%.

MBS Returns In 2025 The Highest In A Decade (Excess Returns Highest Since 2011)

With all the breaking news about Maduro’s capture in Venezuela and the potential collapse of Iran’s Islamic government, I will provide some good news for investors about Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS).

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are capping off an exceptionally strong 2025 with further outperformance in December, beating the rest of the aggregate bond market on an excess return basis. Both total and excess returns for full year 2025 were the highest in more than a decade. MBS performance has been boosted by spread tightening as volatility declined and scarce net supply that was met with resilient demand, including renewed GSE and overseas buying.

Thanks to University of Chicago graduate Erica Adelberg.

Gold And Silver: Silver Up 10% On Friday, Gold Outperforming Stock Market Over Last 30 Years (Silver Hit $79.2708!)

Gold and silver. Gold is now outperforming the Stock Market over the last 30 years.

Silver is up 10% on Friday.

Silver (XAG) just hit the $79.2708 price point.

Dino’s song. A shout-out to David Freiberg on the Gibson SG bass and John Cipollina on the Gibson SG guitar. I love the Gibson SG!

Mortgage Demand Decreased 5.0 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 6 Percent, Refinance Index Decreased 6 Percent)

Twas the end of the year and mortgage demand is poor, but the new year is just around the corner and mortgage demand will rise.

Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 19, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 110 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Overall mortgage application volume fell last week, despite the slight decline in mortgage rates. I expect the trends of a softening job market, sticky inflation, elevated home inventories, and steady mortgage rates will persist into the new year.

Oyster Stew? Another Bad Government Idea To Fix Housing Affordability: The 50-year Mortgage (Interest Paid By Borrower Increases By 105%!)

Every time the government tries to make housing more affordable, they make the problem worse. Some people should rent and not fall for the government’s latest folly, the 50-year mortgage.

True, the 50-year mortgage would lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars (see the following example where the monthly payment falls from $2,349 to $2,083. Or from $2,349 to $2,226 if the most rate increases with the longer mortgage life. BUT total interest paid increases 87% if the 50-year rate remains the same and 105% if the rate rises.

Principal paydown slows to a crawl with a 50-year mortgage, leaving the lender (or mortgage holder) exposed to higher risk if home prices fall.

Government housing policies remind me of the Curly versus the oyster stew skit. where Curly can’t catch the oyster. Yet keeps trying.

The 50-year mortgage reminds me of the ill-fated National Homeownership Strategy under Bill Clinton. By prdering all Federal housing finance entities to work with HUD, the National Homeownership Strategy helped crash the housing market (watch The Big Short!)

𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝟳.𝟭%, Office Delinquencies Soar To 11.8% (CMBS Excess Returns Are Dwindling)

𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝟳.𝟭%.🚨

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Hits Record 11.8%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Meltdown. (Wolfstreet)

CMBS excess returns are dwindling.

How will New York City commercial real estate returns perform if Madami wins the NYC Mayoral election?

Pending Home Sales In August Surge 4% YoY (Lower Rates Helping, Rates Peaked At 18.63% In 1981)

August data for the US housing market has been ‘mixed’ to say the least with a surge in new home sales (thanks to a massive rise in incentives from homebuilders) and a small decline (near multi-year lows), leaving this morning’s pending home sales data as the tie-breaker (with expectations of an ‘unch’ shift MoM).

It appears the drop in mortgage rates is driving some purchase activity as pending home sales soared 4.0% MoM in August – the most since March – dragging sales up 0.5% YoY.

Mortgage rates are falling, helping existing home sales. Note that the 30-year mortgage rate peaked at 18.63% in 1981.

US 10y Yield Below 4% Post-Fed Decision Following 25bp Cut

Well, The Fed cut their target rate by 25 basis points.

Following The Fed’s 25 bp cuts, the 10Y yield fell below 4% to 3.9879%.

The Fed Dots??

We shall see tomorrow if mortgage rates fall.

Is that all there is?

Of course, as soon as I posted this, US Treasury 10Y yields surged. This often happens with The Fed’s incompetent messaging.

Biden/Fed Reign Of Error? US Housing Starts DOWN 6% YoY (Permits DOWN 11.1% YoY)

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.

Housing starts:

Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.

Housing permits?

Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.

Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”