Republicans Little Red Book! New York, California Tax Revenue Tumbles Amid Exodus To Blue States (Red States FLA, TX Show Incredible Gains In Tax Revenue)

The Republicans’ little red book is showing people escaping big crime and tax states like New York and California for lower tax, lower crime states like Florida and Texas. But to Democrats who are really bad at math, 7+7 = 0?

Most people are already familiar with the mass migration from the Democratic strongholds of California and New York, known for high crime and tax rates. We have delved into this in our article, “Americans Continue To Flee High-Tax New York And California,” highlighting Texas and Florida as preferred destinations.

California and New York have sustained population declines during Covid and after, that have long-term implications for local economies. The exodus means workers with six-figure salaries in technology, finance, real estate, and entertainment are going elsewhere, which will reduce tax revenue for the state.

MyEListing.com, an online real estate portal, used IRS migration data to reveal California and New York lost $343 million and $299 million in 2021, respectively, due to the surge in migration outflows.

The beneficiaries of the outflow are Florida and Texas, which took in $12.4 billion and $10.7 billion, respectively.

“Despite its numerous attractions, from the booming tech industry and world-class universities to beautiful landscapes and cultural richness, California’s high personal income tax rates seem discouraging for many high-wealth individuals. This, coupled with the state’s high cost of living, will likely fuel a wealth migration out of California,” MyEListing wrote in the report.

The exodus from California is so severe that state demographers forecasted the total population will be the same today as in 2060.

If left unchecked, the largest outflows of residents from specific metro areas could experience a fiscal crisis. Such a development would be tragic for Democrat-controlled cities already plunging into crisis as progressive politicians fail to enforce law and order.

Hey Joe (Biden)! Open up the US to energy independence!!!

Why US Inflation Will Start Rising Again (WTI Crude Futures UP Above $80 Again As Gasoline Futures UP 91.5% Under Bidenomics)

Joe Biden said that Republicans will impeach him in the House of Representatives since inflation is coming down. Huh? No Joe, it is because your are the most corrupt President in history, a compulsive liar and your economic policies are pure World Economic Forum mandates (open borders, Central Bank Digital currency, green energy, etc). Biden started off his Presidency by declaring war on fossil fuels that helped drive prices through the roof. And the middle class are paying the price.

But as inflation cools (blue line) thanks in part to Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (orange line), Biden can gloat. But remember, gasoline prices remain 56% higher under Biden’s Reign of Error. Even worse, gasoline FUTURES are up 91.5% under Biden. Yikes!

But look at how gasoline prices and gasoline futures have risen in July (pink circle). The last inflation report showed that inflation has declined to 3% (still higher than The Fed’s 2% target), gasoline prices are up almost 5% since July 19, 2023.

Gasoline, meanwhile, started the year at less than $2.50 per gallon. This week, gasoline topped $2.90 per gallon and may yet reach $3.

WTI Crude Oil futures have broken through the $80 barrier … again. Heating oil futures are up 1.43% today with WTI Crude futures up 0.61%.

So as energy prices keep rising (and Biden’s EPA keeps issuing green energy edicts and fails to recognize that our power grid can’t support all the electric cars and trucks envisioned by the Obama/Biden green dreamers). As such, energy prices will keep rising and with it … inflation.

CRE Fire! Office Valuations Plummet As Fed Raises Rates To Fight Inflation (US Gross Domestic Income YoY Fell To -0.8% In Q1, NOT A Good Sign!)

Commercial real estate (CRE), particularly office space, reminds me of the Arthur Brown tune “Fire!” except that Jerome Powell of The Federal Reserve is the God of Hellfire! While fighting inflation caused by … The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending (aka, Bidenomics). Call this the Over, Under, Sideways Down economy. The top 1% are doing quite well, while the lower 50% of net worth households are struggling.

The Q1 2023 NCREIF Office property (value) index shows declining office value since Q2 2022 as The Fed began raising its target rate to combat inflation.

From Trepp, we have this shocking table showing the decline the average total value loss over the span of around a decade. The oldest buildings experienced the largest reduction in value of 60%, and the newest experienced the least (but quite substantial) reduction of 52%. Although the newest buildings performed the best relatively, their 52% value reduction is easily the most concerning, and displays truly how much distress is present in the office sector. This group has the highest percentage of Class A buildings, but its reduction value over the past decade is still approximately on par with buildings constructed over half a century prior. With north of $150 billion in securitized maturities beyond 2023, these trends set a gloomy tone for their future and the performance of office properties as a whole.

Then we have this alarming headline from Trepp: “Commercial Mortgage Sector Faces Another Wall of Maturities as $2.75 Trillion Rolls by 2027.” An estimated $528.7 billion of commercial mortgages mature this year, according to Trepp data, which projects that next year, maturities will increase to $532.8 billion. The projections are based on data for the first quarter compiled using the Federal Reserve’s flow of funds and made various assumptions regarding loan terms for each of the major lender categories. The data would indicate that the market is facing a wall, if not a mountain of maturities that would make the 2015-2017 wall of maturities look almost inconsequential. During that period, roughly $1.1 trillion of loans were scheduled to come due. But attention was focused on the CMBS market, as more than $335 billion of loans were set to mature during the period.

Well, REAL gross domestic income fell -0.8% YoY in Q1 2023 as M2 Money growth crashes. Not a good sign for the US economy or commercial real estate.

Here is the Trepp Report on declining office values.

Of course, office properties are suffering from almost out-of-control crime in major American cities and the desire of workers to work from home rather than commute to work in cubicles.

But never fear! We have massively corrupt and compulsive liar Joe Biden as President!! He is the President of The 1%! Not the other 99%.

Call him Deep State Joe! The bully from Delaware.

Bidenomics In One Chart! Bidenomics Benefits The Elites (Top 1%) Far More Than The Common Man (Bottom 50%) In Terms Of Net Worth (Bank Credit Growth Crashing To Earth)

I wanted to play Aaron Copland’s Fanfare For The Common Man, but thought that The Federal Reserve theme song (laughing song from “Death in Venice”) was more appropriate given their insane money printing since 2008 then 2020 with Covid. Yes, The Fed is laughing at us.

Bidenomics, massive spending on green energy mandates while curbing fossil fuel consumption, has been a true wonder for the top 1% of net worth (let’s call them The Elites). And Bidenomics, like Obamanomics, relied on super generous Federal Reserve money printing.

The result? Total Net Worth held by the top 1% has grown rapidly since the Covid outbreak and Fed monetary expansion (plus Congress going wild spending). The bottom 50%? They improved in terms of net worth

So, The Elites (top 1%) want The Fed to keep on printing money, since their net worth soars.

Meanwhile, US bank credit is crashing as The Fed slows M2 Money growth.

Not only is credit growth grinding to a halt, but unrealized losses on bank investment securities continues to worsen.

If you didn’t see this, then check out House testimony of extraterrestrial visitations to Earth. This has been happening since the 1950s (allegedly), so why NOW is there sudden interest in aliens? Deflection away from the horrible scandal of Biden taking money from foreign actors? Likely answer? Biden and Mayorkas will send Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to negotiate with alien invaders giving them anmesty, free school, free food, free healthcare and directions on how to register to vote. And giving aliens preferential trade status. All for “10% for The Big Guy!”

Bidenomics? Orange Juice Futures UP 192% Under Biden, Frozen OJ Up 40% Under Biden’s Reign Of Error (Even Fed Printing Debacle Can’t Fix This Problem)

I love orange juice! Unfortnately, as a diabetic, OJ is off limits. So I have to watch others drink one of my favorite beverages.

But like everything else under Bidenomics, orange juice is far more expensive.

Orange juice futures, the subject of the comedy “Trading Places,” are up 192% under Biden’s Reign of (Economic) Error. And frozen OJ is up 40%.

Sorry Joe, The Federal Reserve can’t print its way out your horrible economic grand plans.

Regular gasoline prices are soaring … again. And are now up 55% under Bidenomics.

On that surprising GDP report, we saw the 10-year Treasury yield spike to almost 4%.

Speaking of oranges and Florida sunshine …

Bidenomics At Work! US Pending Home Sales Crash -14.8% YoY As Fed Pushes Rates Up, Negative Growth For 24 Of Last 25 Months (Is Fed Chair Powell Actually Mr. Freeze?)

The Biden Administration is gushing about Q2’s Real GDP report of 2.4% QoQ. Wow, after trillions of dollars of stimulus spending and The Fed going wild with monetary stimulus, all we got was 2.4% growth??

But let’s turn the cameras on the housing market.

Pending home sales crashed -14.8% YoY in June.

Is Fed Chair Jay Powell actually Mr. Freeze? Here is Jay Powell looking at his printing press.

Is That All There Is? US Avoids Recession As Real GDP Rises 2.4% In Q2 As Debt-To-GDP Hits 124% (10Y-2Y Curve Rises To … -97.952 BPS)

As Peggy Lee warbled, “Is that all there is?”

Both The Federal government and Federal Reserve went wild with stimulus surrounding the Covid economic shutdown in 2020. The excessive reaction function is still working its way through the economy and we finally got Q2 Real GDP QoQ of 2.4%! But seriously, is that all we got from an increase in public debt of 39% since January 2020, and M2 Money increased 36%. And, of course, The Federal Reserve double their balance sheet from 2020 to today … and are slow walking its removal. So, with Biden’s insane green spending and Powell’s monetary stimulytpo, all we got was 2.1% Real GDP growth YoY??

And US public debt to GDP is now over 120%, thanks in part to Federal spending and Fed monetary stimulus related to the Covid economic shutdowns.

Foul Powell on the prowl.

US New Home Sales Fall -2.5% MoM In June To 697k Units Sold (Thank The Fed For 23.8% YoY Growth!)

New home sales in June fell -2.5% from May to June to 697k units sold. But on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, new home sales are up 23.8%. Thanks largely to The Federal Reserve slow walking the shrinking of their massive balance sheet.

Too much monetary stimulus and The Fed’s failure to remove the Covid stimulus is now hitting new home sales.

Biden’s Mortgage Market! Mortgage Demand Falls 1.8 Since Last Week, Purchase Mortgage Demand Down -49% Since April 2021, Refi Mortgage Demand Down -87% As Mortgage Rates Up 115% (Hurts So Bad?)

Biden loves to brag about Bidenomics, or should I say selective stats like the labor market. But the mortgage market hurts so bad.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 21, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index 1.5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.4 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Since April 2021, purchase mortgage demand is down -49%, refi mortgage demand is down -87% as mortgage rates are up 115%.

KJP “Hurts So Good” Presser: Prices UP 16.6% And Real Wages Down -3% Since Biden Took Office (Food UP 56%, Gasoline UP 52%, Mortgage Rates UP 153%) Hurt So Good???

Biden Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “The American people are beginning to feel Bidenomics”

Prices are up 16.6% and real wages are down 3% since Biden took office.

Well, at least Jean-Pierre didn’t claim like her boss Joe Biden claimed that he “ended cancer as we know it.”

But getting back to Jean-Pierre’s claim that “The American people are beginning to feel Bidenomics.” She is right (for once). Americans are REALLY feeling Bidenomics. And it hurts SO BAD!!!

What hurts so bad? Food (CRB Foodstuffs) are up 56% under Bidenomics. Real weekly wage growth is down -90% since Biden assumed office. Regular gas prices are up 52%. And the 30Y mortgage rate is up a staggering 153%. Yes, Karine, this hurts so bad!

While real wages are down -3% under Biden and the real average weekly wage growth is down -90%. That REALLY hurts so good.

But Biden and KJP think that Bidenomics “hurts so good.”

A video of Bidenomics.