KJP: “Bidenomics Is Indeed Working!” … If The Goal Is NEGATIVE Real Weekly Earnings Growth Of -3.57% YoY, Then Bidenomics Is Working! (Even Worse For Blacks At -6.23% YoY)

“Bidenomics is indeed working!” claims Karine Jean-Pierre. “Cost is going down … wages going up, that is Bidenomics.”

Excuse me Karine. REAL weekly earnings growth remains negative as inflation outpaces weekly earnings growth. As of Q2 2023, REAL median weekly earnings growth is a dismal -3.57% YoY.

And if you are black, Bidenomics has failed you even worse! Q2 Real weekly earnings growth for black households was -6.23% YoY.

I wonder if the harpies on The View will discuss this?

Recession Alert! Philly Fed Crashes To -22.8 For April (Slippin’ Into Darkness)

The US economy is slippin’ into darkness.

The Philly Fed NBOS General Business Activity Region Diffusion Index SA crashed to -22.8 in April.

And today’s Fed Funds Futures data points to a return of The Bernanke/Yellen “Low Rider” policy for rate management.

Why can’t the corporate media, AOC and Tucker Carlson be friends?

Slow Down! ADP Jobs Added Slows To 106k In January, Lowest Since August 2021

The US economy is slowing down. In fact, ADP jobs added just printed at 106k in January, the lowest reading since August 2021. ADP jobs added follows the slow down of M2 Money growth YoY as The Fed tightens its monetary policy.

Do I detect a trend (orange line)?

Speaking of trends, check out ISM Manufacturing New Orders. Lowest since Great Recession of 2008 (if I exclude the government economic shutdown Covid recession).

I doubt that January’s ADP report or the ISM Manufacturing report will be mentioned in Biden’s State of the Union address.

Markets Are Strange! Mortgage Applications Rise 27.9% Since Previous Week, But Purchase Applications Remain 35% Lower Than Last Year (Refi Apps 81% Lower Than Last Year)

Markets are strange.

Mortgage applications increased 27.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 13, 2023. But mortgage applications are 60% lower than the same week last year.

The Refinance Index increased 34 percent from the previous week and was 81 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 25 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 35 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Here are the stats.

One lender in particular, Wells Fargo, smells blood in the economic waters, and has cut back mortgage originations.

Just remember, mortgage applications generally rise in the first part of the year until May, then start slowing until the last week of the year. This is called seasonality. But despite the fast growth this year, purchase applications are still down -35% compared to last year at this time.

Turkey Prices UP 73% Since Last Year As Biden Takes Credit For Biggest Deficit Reductions In US History (Economy NOT “Strong As Hell!”, But Rapidly Approaching Recession)

Like virtually everything in Biden’s economy, the price of turkey (often the main staple for Thanksgiving dinner) is way up in price. Turkey prices are UP 73% since last year. The price per pound of an 8- to 16-pound turkey has risen to $1.99, a 73% increase from $1.15 last year, according to USDA data.

Speaking of turkeys, in recent speeches, President Joe Biden has been misleadingly taking credit for cutting federal deficits by historic amounts, though most of the reduction in deficits is the result of expiring emergency pandemic spending. Deficits fell between fiscal year 2020 and 2021 far less than initially projected after Biden added to them with more emergency pandemic and infrastructure spending.

And apparently Biden (or Jill) haven’t looked at the data recently. While there was a momentary budget surplus in April 2022, the Federal budget deficit has increased dramatically in September 2022 to the worst deficit since March 2021 shortly after Biden took office.

The only thing that is strong under Biden is the labor market. But even the accomplishment is grossly misleading. Under Trump, the U-3 unemployment rate was 3.5% in February 2020 just before Covid-13 struck and the Fauci-ites shut down the economy causing unemployment to rise to 14.7% in April 2020. Most of the reduction in the unemployment rate was the result of the economy slowly opening back up under Trump. When Biden took over, the unemployment rate was 6.4% and it is finally back to Trump’s 3.5% in September 2022. At least Biden didn’t screw that up, as Obama has said. Perhaps that should be his new midterm campaign slogan!

But Biden DID screw up the labor market with Bidenflation. REAL average hourly earnings growth (yellow line) is NEGATIVE..

And yes, the US is rapidly approaching recession which will result in a spike in unemployment. So much for Biden’s “Strong as hell!” economy.

Two turkeys taking a stroll, but I would rather listen to the shorter turkey. At least the speeches would be coherent.