It is not a surprise that the ill-advised COVID economic shutdowns would harm small businesses that large corporations.
Yes, The Fed’s M2 Money printing press went wild with COVID emergency refief. And so did the discrepancy between the top 1% and the bottom 50% in terms of “Share of Total Net Worth Held.” The top 1% is in blue and the bottom 50% is in red. M2 Money is in green.
Compared to pre-COVID, the top 1% increased their share of total net worth from 29.7% to 31.9%, an increase of 7.4% since January 2020. The bottom 50% fell from 30% to 28.5%, a -5% decline. An elitist wonderland!
And The Biden family keeps raking in the money far about Joe’s salary.
And I assume Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also made fortunes from COVID relief.
Well, Biden and McCarthy have agreed in principle to a budget revision, raise the debt ceiling and avoid a US debt default. The Uniparty strikes again! No restraint of reckless Federal spending t speak of . The big donor class wins and middle class Americans lose.
Mike Shedlock (aka, Mish) makes a good point: the US is already in recession if we look at GDI (gross domestic income) rather than GDP (gross domestic product). The US has already declined two consecutive quarters in terms of negative GDI growth.
So much for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s proclamtion that inflation is transitory and would subside to under 2%. April’s core inflation (PCE Deflator) rose to 4.7% YoY. Despite M2 Money growth crashing to -4.6% YoY.
Today’s Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to another rate hike or two.
With Core PCE at 4.7%, the Taylor Rule suggested Fed Funds Target rate is now 10.57%. So, The Fed is only about half way there.
Damn it, Janet, people are suffering from the ravages of inflation and you laugh.
I have gotten a flood of emails and text messages asking about what happens if Biden defaults on the US debt. In short, Biden has made a career out of spending money, as has Speaker McCarthy. They both have an incentive to raise the debt ceiling, but whether it is cuts to Biden’s insane budget (higher than Covid-era spending) and wants to raise taxes on the middle class to pay for it. McCarthy wants a trimmed budget (aka, back to pre-Covid spending levels) and NOT raises taxes. They will eventually agree somewhere in the middle (US Congress member Pramila Jayapal will be outraged, but then again, she is ALWAYS outraged like Senator Elizabeth Warren) and AOC.
The Federal Reserve has taken a brief respite from fighting inflation that they helped cause. But with $188 TRILLION in unfunded entitlements promised by politicians, The Fed will undoubtedly start buying assets again (aka, QEInfinity) and the debt ceiling will keep being raised. In essence, the DC merry-go-round is broken and politicians will keep pushing it around until it collapses.
For the moment, The Federal Reserve is reducing M2 Money (green line). With it, the US Dollar (blue line) has declined. Gold (white line fever) is on the rise along with The Fed’s effective funds rate.
WTI crude is up over 1% this AM. And gold is up 2.29%. Heating oil is up 3.56%.
Face it, I have no confidence in Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, one of the biggest propronents of MMT (modern monetary theory or borrow and spend without consequences). Yellen is NOT making lose my blues.
The US middle class is wasting away in Bidenville. While Climate Envoy John Kerry threatens to seize farms in the name of … climate change? The moral hazard problems associated with farm seizures boggle the mind.
So, everyone keeps talking about the debt ceiling and the fact that America is about to run out of money. How did we just find $375 million dollars AGAIN to ship on over to Zelenskyy?
Biden and McCarthy met on the debt ceiling and nothing has been resolved. They both represent the BIG donor class and big Pharma, big defense, big tech, big media, big tech, anything that is big runs Congress and the Administration. So of course they will finally agree to raise the debt ceiling and continue their insane spending on the donor class.
As of right now, there is no deal to raise the debt limit. Biden wants to raise the already insane and irresponsible Federal budget. McCarthy wants no new taxes. Who will cave in this game of chicken? My guess is that McCarthy will cave. Biden may whip out the 14th Amendment to bypass McCarthy and Congress, but this makes Biden a dictator (which would suit him fine, but would be a horrible precedent).
Core Inflation Rate UP 244% under Biden, Food UP 46%, Gasoline Prices UP 60%, Rental Growth UP 268%. What a disaster under Biden’s Reign of Error.
But at least the Biden family are getting wealthy beyond comprehension. Isn’t that Ashley Biden in the blue?
Like the famous novel “All Quiet on the Western Front,” its “All Quiet on the Default Front” as China Joe and Speaker McCarthy are set to meet again. In short, Biden wants to raise taxs on middle class and McCarthy wants to return Federal spending to pre-Covid levels. Sure, Biden throws around the Bernie Sanders’s tax on millionaires and billionaires line, but they know that M&Bs have professional accounts and lawyers to protect them while the middle class has Turbo Tax and H&R Block.
In any case, markets are calm (the calm before the storm?) although I think Biden WANTS to default and blame Republicans ahead of Biden’s reelection. The media will mindlessly repeat DNC talking points. So Biden is covered. After all, he says it isn’t his fault (although it is 100% Biden’s fault if America defaults because of his reckless budget and insane ramblings).
Let’s look at regional banks and the US Treasury SHORT curve: 2Y-3M. Notice that regional bank stocks have gotten demolished as The Fed tightens.
Its May 21st and Biden still refuses to budge on paring back his massively bloated budget of green energy payoffs. Yet Biden laughingly stated it isn’t his fault if the US defaults on its debt. It is absolutely 100% Biden’s fault and he should be impeached if he fails to meet Republicans half way.
(Bloomberg) Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US is unlikely to reach mid-June and still be able to pay its bills, underscoring the urgency of the White House reaching a deal with Republicans to raise the debt limit.
“Well, there’s always uncertainty about tax receipts and spending,” Yellen said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “And so it’s hard to be absolutely certain about this, but my assessment is that the odds of reaching June 15 while being able to pay all of our bills is quite low.”
Biden and McCarthy have been at an impasse since January over raising the government’s $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. The Treasury has been deploying special accounting measures since January to stay within the statutory ceiling.
“On June 15, there are tax payments that are made that are substantial,” Yellen told NBC. “But early June, I interpret as before that, and it would be very difficult to get to that date.”
This is coming from the former Federal Reserve Chair who raised interest rates once while Obama was President, then raises rates 8 time after Trump won the election.
Surprisingly, cryptos are down today despite Biden’s incompetence and Yellen’s dire warning. Atleast TRON is up!
Yes, Yellen is the same person who raised interest rates just once under Obama, then 8 times after Trump was elected. And Yellen is the same person who said inflation was transitory, yet remains elevated. Yellen is truly The Deep State’s fuiancial manager.
First, Biden didn’t “balance the budget” liked he claimed at Hiroshima. In fact, the Federal budget deficit, while improving, is still worse than it was before the 2020 Covid economic shutdown.
Biden, Schumer and Yellen are ignoring the $187 TRILLION in UNFUNDED entitlements promised America, even though Biden keeps threatening to halt Social Security payments if Biden and Yellen default on the debt. No discussion of the runaway train of entitlemennts.
I love this Bloomberg headline: “(ECB’s) Lagarde Trusts in US Common Sense to Avert Catastrophic Default.” Has Lagarde actually talked to Biden, Harris or Yellen? America’s REAL 3 Stooges??
But that is where we are in the US. A President who acts like a spoiled 12 year old bully, members of Congress like Cori Bush and AOC who think The Fed can just print trillions MORE and give it to preferred groups. Senator Diane Feinstein (soon to be replaced by a horrible human being in the person of Adam Schiff). John Fetterman, the next Bernie Sanders?? C’mon DC. A true ship of fools. And dangerous ones at that.
So since September 26, 2022, we have seen a fundametal shift in markets. The US Dollar is down -21% since September 26, 2022 while Bitcoin is up 41%, Gold is up 21% and Silver is up 28%.
Biden is sitting pretty, If McCarthy chickens out and agrees to Biden’s outrageous budget, Biden looks like a hero. If Biden defaults, the MSM media will blame McCarthy and Republicans, so Biden wins. No wonder Biden said he isn’t worried about the debt ceiling negotations. He wins no matter what, And we the 99% get screwed.
Yes, the clock is ticking on a possible debt default and Biden is off in Hiroshima Japan instead of negotiating with House Speaker McCarthy.
The treasury cash balance is only $18 billion away from Yellen’s minimum balance redline of $50 billion. That’s one day of spending in crazy spending Washington DC.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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