Crazy Train! Mortgage Applications Decreased 2.6 Percent From One Week Earlier (Home Prices Rose 39% Under Biden While Mortgage Originations At Large Banks Fell -61%)

All aboard! The crazy mortgage train! Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%. The mortgage market is still recovering from Bidenomics!

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%.

Trump’s Economy In Q2 Growing At 3.5% As Fed Keeps On Printing!

The Fed’s themesong: Keep on printing!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on June 17, down from 3.8 percent on June 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 2.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.9 percent to -1.4 percent.

GDP growth corresponds to Fed money printing.

Here is the breakdown. True, real GDP growth has been slowing over June.

Simply Unaffordable? US Homebuilder Confidence Tumbles Near 13-Year-Lows Due To Post-Covid Home Price Gains (And Higher Mortgage Rates)

Thanks a lot Fed! Home prices rose dramatically after Covid as The Fed printed billions of dollar of currency (M2). Making housing unaffordable for much of America.

As a result of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices, homebuilder confidence is at a 13 year low (back to 2012).

Housing is simply unaffordable thanks to bad housing policies and The Fed.

Should Trump Fire Powell? YES (Fed Hasn’t Removed The Covid Stimulus And Should, Rates Too High)

Should President Trump fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell and replace his with someone else like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent? The answer is … YES!

Why? First, there was a massive response to the Covid outbreak in 2020. And the monetary stimulus (aka, stimulypto) has never been removed.

The Fed Funds Target Rate (upper bound) remains high at 4.50% and M2 Money supply is $21.8 TRILLION.

Second, The Fed could help reduce the interest paid on the massive Federal debt load when the debt if refinanced.

The US Treasury yield curve tends to follow anticipated Fed moves.

Of course, The Fed should be abolished. But a step in the right direction would be to fire “Foul Powell” who is on the prowl.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Trump’s Private Market Economy Soars Despite Low Inflation (Biden’s Government Economy Was The Inverse – High Inflation, Low GDP Growth)

Welcome to the Trump economic revolution!

As of June 9, 2025, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimates that real GDP growth was 3.8%. So much for Trump’s tariff “war” destroying the economy.

Latest estimate: 3.8 percent — June 09, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 9, unchanged from June 5 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from -2.2 percent to -1.9 percent.

Biden relied on government hiring and Fed’s money printing to drive the US economy. And then the gas ran out.

CMBS Office Serious Delinquencies At 10.59% As US Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

I’ll feel a whole lot better when CMBS office serious delinquenies get below 10%. But serious delinquencies on office space is currently at 10.59%.

The US Treasury yield curve is steepening.

Office delinquencies are likely to rise in Los Angeles as Governor Newsom sits on his greasy hands as LA burns.

Into The Mystic? Mortgage Applications Decrease 3.9% In Latest MBA Weekly Survey (Purchase Apps Drop 15%)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 30, 2025. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Most mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.92 percent and staying in the 6.8 to 7 percent range since April.

Biden/Harris/Yellen’s gross economic mismanagement reminds me of the song “Into The Mystic.” Because it requires a mystic to determine WHO was running the Biden/Harris adminstration and using the autopen.

CC Rider? MBS Current Coupon (CC) Spreads Widen From Treasuries, Gold, Silver And Copper UP

CC Rider! 30Y MBC Current Coupon (CC) spreads is widening.

And metals are along for the ride! Gold and silver are soaring!

What about Copper?

Glad All Over! AI Contributes Massive Amount To GDP Growth As Median Home Price Growth Contracts

I am glad all over … because the AI boom is delivering a record contribtion to US GDP.

And US home prices are contracting making housing more affordable.

I don’t care what you did when you lived in Fort Worth, but at least home prices are contracting.

Pending Home Sales Remain In The House Latitudes (Homebuilder Confidence At 34)

Its like Joe Biden and his bonehead advisors are still gumming up the housing market. Pending home sales in April remains in the house latitudes.

NAHB home builder confidence remains below 50 at 34.

Is the music over for the housing market? High housing prices, high mortgage rates, restrictive zoning all hinder markets.