The Urgent Need For D.O.G.E.! $4.7 Trillion In Virtually Untraceable Treasury Payments

Janet Yelllen, the former Federal Reserve Chair and Treasury Secretary under clueless Joe Biden was a disaster in every respect. As Fed Chair, she was noteworthy for her clinging to low rates for too long. And as Treasury Secretary, she is noteworthy for her gross fiscal mismanagement (look at the deficit and debt crisis!). Now Zero Hedge has this disastrous report of $4.7 TRILLION in virtuallly untraceable Treasury payments.

The Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) on Monday revealed its finding that $4.7 trillion in disbursements by the US Treasury are “almost impossible” to trace, thanks to a rampant disregard for the basic accounting practice of using of tracking codes when dishing out money.

With a debt load of $36.5 trillion and D.O.G.E. clock at $109 million and growing. Not to mention the $227 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

Mind you, it’s not as if such a federal tracking system wasn’t already in place — it simply went casually unused for all sorts of payouts adding up to an almost unfathomable $4.7 trillion. Without Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) identification codes associated with those payouts, there’s little hope in figuring out where all that money went.

“In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 Trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost impossible,” DOGE announced via its X account. Thanks to DOGE, those “optional” days are over. “As of Saturday, this is now a required field, increasing insight into where money is actually going,” DOGE added.

Musk celebrated the move. “Major improvement in Treasury payment integrity going live!” he tweeted. “This was a combined effort of DOGE, USTreasury and FederalReserve. Nice work by all.”

DOGE’s scrutiny of various government agencies is eliciting high-pitched shrieks from nearly every leftist in America, from establishment politicians who don’t want the curtain that hides their hijinks and grifting torn down, to your liberal sister-in-law who thinks the government has an endless supply of money and that it spends it all virtuously.

Earlier this month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed back on portrayals of DOGE employees as reckless rogues. “These are highly trained professionals,” he told Bloomberg. “This is not some roving band going around doing things. This is methodical and it is going to yield big savings.”

In the wake of the latest revelation that makes normal people glad that DOGE teams are scouring the federal government, Democrats desperately tried to find a way to make it sound bad that DOGE exposed trillions in untraceable payouts and promptly instituted tighter accounting discipline.

Meanwhile, leftists have also been foaming at the mouth over news that DOGE staffers are looking into the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) books, as if they were going to start rerouting funds to Tesla. Considering Social Security is careening toward mandatory benefit cuts as soon as 2033, everyone should welcome a team of financial professionals making sure the system isn’t being drained by improper payments.

Of course, that appears to be exactly what’s been happening. On Sunday night, Musk said DOGE might be on the trail of “the biggest fraud in history,” as SSA data appears to show that 20.789 million Americans over the age of 100 are collecting Social Security retirement benefits. That includes 12 million who are purportedly over 120 years old.

Bent on derailing DOGE, Democrats have sued to prevent the organization from accessing federal data associated with the Office of Personnel Management, and the Health and Human Services, Education, Energy, Transportation, Labor and Commerce departments. On Monday, the federal judge handling the request for a restraining order expressed skepticism over Democrats’ challenge, noting that their “evidence” was largely media speculation about potential harms springing from DOGE’s activities: “The courts can’t act based on media reports. We can’t do that.“

A ruling is expected Tuesday. Here’s looking forward to DOGE proceeding to uncover a relentless string of scandals for months and months to come.

Why Doge? Federal Deficit Is Up $306 Billion Compared to Same Period Last Year (Long-run Deficits Are Grim!)

When the (fiscal) music’s over. For corrupt politicians, that is!

Mike Shedlock (aka, Mish) had a great article on the fiscal dumpster fire facing the Trump Administration. After you get a load of the long-run deficits and debt load, you can understand why Trump wants to cut Federal waste (Doge).

The US deficit for the first four months of fiscal Year 2025 is $838 billion, up $306 billion. Adjusted, the increase is more like $157 billion to $225 billion.

The federal budget deficit totaled $838 billion in the first four months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $306 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $11 billion (or 1 percent) higher, and outlays were $317 billion (or 15 percent) higher.

The change in the deficit was influenced by the timing of outlays and revenues, which decreased the deficit during the first four months of fiscal year 2024 but increased it during the same period this fiscal year. Outlays in October 2023 were reduced by shifts in the timing of payments that were due on October 1, 2023, a Sunday. (The payments were made that September.) Outlays in the first four months of 2025 rose, on net, because payments due on February 1, 2025, a Saturday, were made in January. If not for those shifts, the deficit so far this fiscal year would have been $750 billion, or $146 billion more than the shortfall at this point last year. Part of the deficit increase in 2025 also arises from the postponement of some tax deadlines from 2023 to 2024 (described below), which boosted receipts in 2024.

The long-run deficits are grim, according to the CBO.

Outlays in the first four months of fiscal year 2025 were $2.4 trillion, CBO estimates, $317 billion more than during the same period last year. If not for the timing shifts discussed above, outlays so far in fiscal year 2025 would have been $157 billion (or 7 percent) greater than outlays during the same four months in fiscal year 2024. The discussion below reflects adjustments to exclude the effects of those timing shifts.

Maxine Waters is an unhappy girl along with most Democrats about Trump and Musk looking into USAID.

Welcome to a new world under Trump.

Bummer! January Jobs Growth Below Estimates Amid Massive Revisions, Job Gains At +143k (New Sheriff In Town!)

Biden is out and so are the crazy job preferences of his administration (e.g., green energy). There is a new sheriff in town (Donald Trump).

Here’s what the BLS reported in Trump’s first official jobs report since he returned to the White House: total payrolls printed at 143K.

down sharply from an upward revised 307K (256K originally) and missing estimates of 175K.

Looking further back, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 49,000, from +212,000 to +261,000, and when adding the +51,000 revision to December employment in November and December combined is 100,000 higher than previously reported

But while the sequential change in the Establishment survey was notable, what was far more remarkable was the Household survey where we saw massive population related revisions (discussed last night), which pushed the civilian labor force higher by 2.2 million to 170.744 million, while the number of employed workers also increased by over 2.2 million to 163.895 million. As a result, the Household survey has finally caught up to Establishment survey.

Where the jobs are.

Revisions?

The Presidential portrait of Joe Biden.

Pork City! 1,547 Page Continuing Resolution Packed With Pork (Wasteful Spending Like New Washington Commander Stadium And Francis Scott Key Bridge)

Washington DC is now officially known as Pork City! Why? Take a look at the House’s Continuing Resolution to to keep the Federal government funded. Includes $110 billion in disaster assistance for relief efforts in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, and Western region, among others.

The 1,547 page federal spending bill has so many outrageous things in it, it’s hard to know where to begin – but it without a doubt should NOT pass as-is. But a great example of why we need @doge more than ever to reel in the governments insane spending & redundancies.

Highlights:

1. $8 BILLION—For Emergency Relief for damage caused by a cargo ship to the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, MD and 20 surrounding counties, including reconstruction of the bridge.

2. A section regarding our health agencies – has a lot of red flags – and appears to aim to limit what the new HHS Secretary (@RobertKennedyJr) can and cannot do:

“The Secretary may not revise the Vaccine Injury Table to include a vaccine for which the Centers for Disease Control &!Prevention has issued a recommendation for routine use in children or pregnant women until at least one application for such vaccine has been approved… Upon such revision of the Vaccine Injury Table, all vaccines in a vaccine category on the Vaccine Injury Table, including vaccines authorized under emergency use… shall be considered included in the Vaceine Injury Table and they also added “CLARIFICATION—Notwithstanding… an injury or death related to a vaceine administered at a time when the vaccine was a covered countermeasure subject to a declaration under section 319F-3(b) SHALL NOT BE ELIGIBLE FOR COMPENSATION under the Program.”

$100 billion in disaster relief for hurricane-hit states.
$30 billion in economic assistance for farmers.
Restrictions on U.S. capital investment in China, a win for GOP hawks wary of Beijing’s influence.
A delay in the implementation of a “beneficial ownership” database meant to curb money laundering until 2026.
The transfer of RFK Stadium to the District of Columbia, clearing the way for a shiny new Washington Commanders stadium.
The relocation of an Air National Guard fighter squadron from D.C. to Maryland.
Even the American Music Tourism Act of 2024 got squeezed in.

Why isn’t the shipping company that slammed into the Francis Scott Key bridge paying for its repair? And why aren’t football fans paying for a new football stadium?? Etc. Etc.?

House Speaker Rutherford should officially switch parties and become a crazy spending Democrat!

Biden Boogie! Biden’s Final Punch In The Jaw, Greatest Fiscal Deficit To Start The Year In History, Largest Debt Load, Interest Expense Now Exceeds Social Security

It is the Biden Boogie!

Joe Biden is leaving the Presidency with an attrocious record. While saying he is leaving Trump with the strongest economy in modern times, the is actually leaving Trump and Republicans with a hollow shell for an economy. It is the final punch in the jaw from an angry, failed President.

The following chart shows that in October and November, the US deficit exploded to a staggering $624.2 billion, and even though this included several calendar adjustments – which explains the freak September surplus which as we said was due to calendar effects – the November deficit of $367 billion was $14 billion more than consensus estimates of $353 billion. Worse, combining October and November we find that not only was the combined number of $624 billion some 64% higher than the corresponding period one year ago, but it was also the highest deficit on record for the first two-months of the year (and that includes the spending insanity during the covid crisis).

Putting the deficit in context, the budget deficit in October and November – the first two months of fiscal 2025 – are now officially the worst start a year for the US Treasury on record.

No wonder even Statist Janet Yellen (Treasury Secretary who failed utterly at her job) apologized that her abysmal performance. “I am concerned about fiscal sustainability and I am sorry that we haven’t made more progress,” she said adding that “I believe that the deficit needs to be brought down especially now that we’re in an environment of higher interest rates.” Meanwhile Biden keeps handing out $$$ to Ukraine, Africa, Syria, illegal immigrants and anything else that asks … unless it it American citizens. Man, does Biden HATE America!

Here is Yellen’s record on debt. A total of $15.2 TRILLION under her leadership.

Under Biden/Yellen (don’t forget Senate fools like Schumer and McConnell!), debt interest has surpassed Social Security and Medicare as the second largest government agency expense.

Biden is a classic progressive Democrat, spending other people’s money like a wild man (sort of like California Governor “Greasy Gavin” Newsom’s father. Or grandfather. And let’s not forget the $222 TRILLION in UNFUNDED liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare.

“See Joe, I can destroy California’s economy just like you destroyed the US economy!”

Rise! CMBS Continues To Struggle Under Biden/Harris (Delinquency Rate For Office Space Hits 10.4%)

CMBS delinquencies are on the rise.

The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, significantly outrunning the 6.3-point rise seen during the financial crisis nearly 15 years ago.

The office real estate sector has been grappling with a severe downturn for several years now, but are accelerating recently as they are driven by persistently high vacancy rates and declining rents. Property values, particularly for older office buildings, have plummeted, with many losing 50 to 70 percent of their market value and in some cases becoming effectively worthless. Those conditions have left real estate portfolio managers and building owners unable to borrow, refinance or sell properties, contributing to rising delinquencies and foreclosures. (Mortgages become effectively delinquent when payments are missed beyond a standard 30-day grace period.)

On the CMBS front, there have been no upgrades in 2023 and 2024.

Efforts to convert office buildings into residential spaces are increasing but remain limited by structural and economic constraints. Many office towers are unsuitable for conversion due to their large floor plates or prohibitively high retrofitting costs which often exceed the cost of demolition and rebuilding. In 2024, 73 office-to-residential conversions were completed, with an additional 30 underway. Despite plans to increase the pace in 2025, the cumulative impact remains minimal, addressing just 7.9 percent of the 902 million square feet of vacant office space nationwide.

Milton Waddams personifies the disastrous progressive politics of Biden/Harris.

Tower Of Power? US Industries Are Buckling Under Pressure of Surging Electricity Costs (Industrial Electricity Costs UP 24.4% YoY)

The US is the expensive tower of power … but it should be cheap. Getting rid of coal power was idiotic and The Left’s fear of nuclear power is laughable.

EIA data by user classification, chart by Mish.

Rising energy bills have forced companies to scale back industrial operations, threatening a greater drag on the economy.

As of May, electrical energy costs are up 24.4 percent from a year ago. Producer Price Index (PPI) data suggests things are getting worse.

Please consider US Industrial Complex Is Starting to Buckle From High Power Costs

Europe’s fertilizer plants, steel mills, and chemical manufacturers were the first to succumb. Massive paper mills, soybean processors, and electronics factories in Asia went dark. Now soaring natural gas and electricity prices are starting to hit the US industrial complex.

On June 22, 600 workers at the second-largest aluminum mill in America, accounting for 20% of US supply, learned they were losing their jobs because the plant can’t afford an electricity tab that’s tripled in a matter of months. Century Aluminum Co. says it’ll idle the Hawesville, Kentucky, mill for as long as a year, taking out the biggest of its three US sites. A shutdown like this can take a month as workers carefully swirl the molten metal into storage so it doesn’t solidify in pipes and vessels and turn the entire facility into a useless brick. Restarting takes another six to nine months. For this reason, owners don’t halt operations unless they’ve exhausted all other options.

At least two steel mills have begun suspending some operations to cut energy costs, according to one industry executive, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. In May, a group of factories across the US Midwest warned federal energy regulators that some were on the verge of closing for the summer or longer because of what they described as “unjust and unreasonable” electricity costs. They asked to be wholly absolved of some power fees—a request that, if granted, would be unprecedented.

Michael Harris, whose firm Unified Energy Services LLC buys fuel for industrial clients, says costs have risen so high that some are having to put millions of dollars of credit on the line to secure power and gas contracts. “That can be devastating for a corporation,’’ he says. “I don’t see any scenario, absent explosions at US LNG facilities’’ that trap supplies at home, in which gas prices are headed lower in the long term.

EIA Average Electricity Cost Cents

EIA Cost Data January 2021 vs May 2022

Residential: 12.69 to 14.92
Commercial: 10.31 to 12.14
Industrial: 6.39 to 8.35
Transportation: 9.61 to 10.79
All: 10.36 to 12.09

Those prices are through May 2022. Much electrical energy comes from natural gas.

US Natural Gas Futures

US gas prices fluctuated wildly in June and July. I suspect the average price is 7.33 or so for both months. Things are decidedly worse in Europe.

EU Natural Gas Price

From 25 or even 50 to 200 is one hell of a leap. It’s somewhere between 300% and 700% depending on your starting point vs 100% or so for the US.

Let’s now check the latest PPI data for a look at where things are and more importantly headed.

PPI Electrical Power Index 2020-Present

From pre-pandemic to January of 2021, the PPI electrical power index was flat. It has since surged on a relatively steady pace.

From May to July the index went from 231 to 238. That tacks on another three percentage points since the EIA report.

PPI Electrical Power Index 1991-Present

Long Term Trend

The long-term trend does not exactly look pretty.

And as Bloomberg noted, Century Aluminum Co. says it’ll idle the Hawesville, Kentucky, mill for as long as a year, taking out the biggest of its three US sites.

Reflections on Beer

Regarding the price of aluminum, please note America’s Beer CEOs Have Had It With the Trump-Era Aluminum Tariffs

The beer industry uses more than 41 billion aluminum cans annually, according to a Beer Institute letter to the White House dated July 1.

“These tariffs reverberate throughout the supply chain, raising production costs for aluminum end-users and ultimately impacting consumer prices,” according to the letter signed by the CEOs of Anheuser-Busch, Molson Coors, Constellation Brands Inc.’s beer division, and Heineken USA.

This letter to the president comes amid the worst inflation in more than 40 years and just months after aluminum touched a multi-decade high. Prices for the metal have since eased significantly.

Whatever victory beer makers and drinkers may have with aluminum prices may not last with US aluminum plants shutting down.

Then again, the cure for everything is likely to be a huge recession.

Zero Consumer Inflation

I am pleased to report there was no consumer inflation in July.

For discussion, please consider CPI Month-Over-Month Was Unchanged, Year-Over-Year Up 8.5 Percent

The CPI report resulted in a nonsensical Twitter debate on the meaning of zero. For the record, assuming you believe the numbers, there was indeed zero inflation month-over-month.

The accurate rebuttal is: One month? So what?

Moreover, zero is not as good as it looks. All of it was due to a 7.7 percent decline in the price of gasoline. And year-over-year inflation was a hot 8.5 percent.

Meanwhile, rent and food keep rising and the price of rent will be sticky. Gasoline is more dependent on recession and global supply chains.

Food Prices Rise Most Since February 1979

For more on the price of food, please see Food at Home is Up 13.1 Percent From a Year Ago, Most Since February 1979

For more on rent, please note Tennant’s Unions Demand Biden Declare a National Emergency to Stop Rent Gouging

For more on producer prices please see Producer Prices Decline For the First Time Since the Pandemic Due to Energy

Although energy declined, electricity didn’t.

Spotlight on Fed Silliness

The above reports and this one industrial costs puts a spotlight on the silliness of the Fed’s focus on consumer inflation as if that’s all that matters.

The Fed has blown three consecutive bubbles trying to produce two percent consumer inflation while openly promoting raging bubbles in assets and missing the boat entirely on industrial matters.

$36 Tons Of Debt! Federal Gov’t Ends 2024 With $1.8 Trillion Deficit As National Debt Nears $36 Trillion (Family Of Five Citizens Has A Liability Of $3.25 Million For Unfunded Liabilities)

Tennessee Ernie Ford sang it best. $36 tons of debt. Another day older and deeper in debt. Notice virually no political candidate will acknowledge or discuss.

The federal government spent $1.8 trillion more than it collected in tax revenue in fiscal year 2024, according to figures released Friday by U.S. Treasury Department.

Congress has run a deficit every year since 2001. In the past 50 years, the federal government has ended with a fiscal year-end budget surplus four times, most recently in 2001.

The deficit for fiscal 2024 was $1.8 trillion, or $138 billion higher than the prior year’s deficit. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit was 6.4%, an increase from 6.2% in fiscal 2023. The 2024 deficit is $196 billion lower than in 2023, excluding the effect of the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision in Biden v. Nebraska regarding student loan programs, according to year-end data from the September 2024 Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government.

And then we have the REAL disaster in the form of unfunded liabilities of $220 TRIILLION (or $651,000 per citizen). For a family of 5 citizens (like my household), that amounts to $3.26 MILLION per household of 5.

Imagine Kamala’s filibustering a response to a question about the national debt and unfunded liabilities. Other than “Donald Trump.”

Perhaps Tennesse Ernie Ford could have recorded “220 Trillion Tons of Unfunded Liabilities” instead.

The Obama/Biden/Harris Economic Model: Spend Trillions, Borrow Trillions, Hire Gov’t Workers (Hand Our Grandchildren The HUGE Bill)

There have been to significant jumps in the Federal Debt. The first coming after the financial crisis of 2008 and election of Obama/Biden in 2008. The second with the outbreak of Covid in 2020 and the election of Biden/Harris in 2021.

The Federal (public) debt was just over $10 million when Obama/Biden were elected and it now stands at a staggering $35.7 trillion. That represents over a tripling of the Federal debt under Obama/Biden/Harris. So when asked what she would do diffeerent than Biden, Harris replied “Nothing comes to mind.” That means MORE spending, MORE debt and MORE unproductive Government jobs.

Here is a chart of public debt and GDP under the triumvirate of Obama, Biden and Harris. No, not Julius Caesar, Pompey, and Crassus). But it is feeling like the Roman Empire prior to its collapse.

Here is a chart of government jobs and government expenditures. Great for government workers, bad for everyone else.

Of course, SOMEBODY has to pay the growing gov’t debt burden. Rest assured it won’t be Obama/Biden/Harris.

Here is Obama holding court.

US Dollar Eroded-20% Under Biden/Harris Ring Of Fire (Federal Reserve Was Co-conspirator In Rampant Inflation)

The US has fallen into a Ring of Fire under Biden/Harris horrid economic policiies.

But Biden/Harris had help from their deep state partner, The Federal Reserve.

The purchasung power of the US dollar has fallen by a whopping -20% under Biden/Harris. No wonder Harris is afraid to talk to reporters about her plans.

The children in Congress went on a spending spree as a result of COVID resulting in record inflation.

The deep state’s financing arm, The Federal Reserve, certainly helped create inflation by ramping up M2 Money supply around Covid.

Of course, children in Congress and Harris/Walz will use ANY excuse to tax and spend (and borrow/spend). The most recent inflation report had CPI growng at 2.5% YoY resulting in a further decline of purchasing power of the US dollar of -2.5% YoY.

Harris/Walz fully intend to keep shoveling TRILLIONS into green energy transformation and supporting illegal immigrants.