Mortgage applications increased 5.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 7, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.1 percent from the previous week and was 57 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was31 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Well, the regional banking crisis has one positive outcome: mortgage rates dropped -46 basis points since last week. The result? Mortgage demand increased 2.9 percent week-over-week (WoW). Although I don’t recommend banking incompetence by bank management and “regulators” as a strategy to increase mortgage demand.
Mortgage applications increased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 24, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 61 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 35 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The rest of the story.
We need a doctor to fix this mess, just not Dr. Yellen or Dr. Jill.
A zombie foreclosure refers to a situation where a homeowner vacates their property after receiving a notice of default, expecting they will lose the home in the pending foreclosure. The foreclosure may get canceled for any number of reasons and never completed.
New York City and its surrounding areas lead the nation in zombie foreclosures. Followed by Miami. Chicago and Cleveland. Then Philadelphia.
US inflation is causing The Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and mortgage applications are suffering.
Mortgage applications decreased 7.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 10, 2023.
The Refinance Index decreased 13 percent from the previous week and was 76 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 43 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The MBA contract rate rose 3.4% from 6.18% to 6.39% as The Fed tightens.
And if you believe the Taylor Rule (as opposed to The Fed’s current politically-based decisions), The Fed’s target rate should be 10.15% and The Fed is less than half way there at 4.75%.
The Fed is expected (by investors in Fed Funds Futures) to rise to 5.283% by the July FOMC meeting, then decline to under 5% by January ’24.
Speaking of Fed rate hikes, January’s red hot retail sales (up 3% MoM) is surely going to drive inflation UP and The Fed will keep raising rates.
US mortgage rates fell last week by the most since the end of July, slipping below 7% and helping generate a bounce in purchase applications that otherwise remain depressed, but only in the Seasonally Adjusted data. The NON-Seasonally Adjusted data show a hefty decline.
The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage decreased 24 basis points to 6.9% in the week ended Nov. 11, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. The group’s index of applications to buy a home rose 4.4% — the most since June — but is still near the weakest level since 2015.
But the bounce was in Seasonally Adjusted data only. The NON-seasonally adjusted data remained depressed.
Mortgage applications decreased -10.0 percent SA from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Veterans Day.
The Refinance Index decreased -11.44% percent from the previous week and was 88 percent lower than the same week one year ago.The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased -10 percent compared with the previous week and was 46 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Mortgage purchase applications will continue to fall in NSA terms since it is the Winter and home buying season won’t really start until January. Refinancing applications actually dropped -11.44% even with the drop in mortgage rates.
The data. As my former students know, I like the “raw” data, better known as NON-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data and avoid seasonally-adjusted data (SA) since it hides what is going on.
And on The Fed Futures Front, The Federal Reserve is still looking a hiking their target rate from 4% to just under 5%.
As The Fed takes away the massive monetary punch bowl, mortgage rates have risen to the highest since November 2008. And with the withdrawal of monetary stimulus (raising Fed Target Rate), mortgage purchase applications have declined.
Here is a photo of The Federal Reserve fighting the housing and mortgage market.
Welcome to The Fed’s Gilded Age … for housing! The gilded age refers to the thin-veneer of gold covering up problems in the late 1800s.
Today’s gilded age is largely fueled by The Federal Reserve’s uber-easy monetary policies combined with absurd Federal government policies. The result? Thanks to inflation, REAL home prices are growing at 14.6% YoY while REAL hourly earnings are declining (-0.41% YoY).
Redfin predicts a more balanced housing market in 2022. Part of their rationale is that they predict mortgage rates will rise to 3.6%. This growth in the mortgage rate is predicted to slow home price growth to 3.2% from double digit growth currently.
While this scenario is plausible, it will require a change in direction of the 10-year Treasury yield which has been declining since 1981. 5.39% YoY inflation may encourage The Fed to raise rates.
Today’s REAL 30-year mortgage rate is -3.08% while the REAL 10-year Treasury yield is -4.67%. It will require a reduction in inflation AND an increase in the nominal rate to get to 3.6%.
With the Freddie Mac 30-year survey rate at 3.10, will a 50 basis point increase in mortgage rates send the market crashing? Not likely.
After all, the US economy is under the thumb of The Federal Reserve.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.