JOLT! Job Openings Changed Little (10.4 Million In September) As UMich House Buying Sentiment Declines Even Further (To 62 From 144 Last Year On This Date)

The Federal Reserve continues to JOLT markets with excessive monetary stimulus despite numerous reasons why they should back off.

For example, today’s JOLT report (US job openings) revealed that 10.4 million jobs were open in September. This is the fourth consecutive month of 1 million plus job openings, yet The Fed refuses to raise their target rate.

At the same time, the University of Michigan survey revealed that buying conditions for houses dropped to 66 (baseline of 100). To show how bad this is, buying conditions for houses was at 144 this time last year.

UPDATE: UMich revised their number downward to 62, the lowest since 1981.

In The Fed’s mind, they are still chasing at least 3.5% unemployment, the lowest rate under President Trump prior to COVID. But with perpetual million plus job openings GOING UNFILLED, trying to get to pre-COVID unemployment rate of 3.5% is a fool’s errand.

Of course, with The Fed helping to pump up house prices to largely unaffordable levels, it makes sense that enthusiasm for buying expensive homes has crashed.

Meanwhile, The Fed continues to JOLT the economy with excess stimulus.

Overall inflation fears are leading to lowest consumer confidence since 2011.

PLEASE stop JOLTING US!!

The Shadow Knows! The Xu-Xia Fed Shadow Rate Is -1.7021% (US Effectively Has Negative Interest Rates And Inflation Is Expected To Continue And NOT Be Transitory)

The Shadow Knows!

Wu-Xia employs an approximation that makes a nonlinear term structure model extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. It can be used to summarize the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy (ZIRP + QE). The Shadow Rate is now -1.7021%.

And you wonder why we have inflation and house prices going into orbit?

With inflation also going into orbit, we see that breakeven 10 year inflation rate rising above the 5Y5Y (nominal forward 5 years minus US inflation-linked bonds forward 5 years). In other words, the US has abnormally high inflation and is expected to grow and NOT be transitory.

The Shadow knows … that the US is hyperstimulated. And inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.

Thanksgiving Dinner Staples Are Low in Stock Thanks to Supply-Chain Issues And Federal Policies (Foodstuffs UP 36% From Last Year)

Combine vaccine mandates that lower the workforce and the flood of economic and monetary stimulus by the geniuses in Washington DC, and we have a Thanksgiving problem.

The supply-chain crunch is about to hit another part of American life: Thanksgiving dinner.

Supplies of food and household items are 4% to 11% lower than normal as of Oct. 31, according to data from market-research firm IRI. That figure isn’t far from the bare shelves of March 2020, when supplies were down 13%.

For grocery shoppers this holiday season, it means that someone with 20 items on their list would be out of luck on two of them.

Although U.S. supermarket operators started purchasing holiday items early, aiming to avoid shortages, many holiday essentials are already in short supply.

Turkeys are very low in stock. By the end of October turkeys were over 60% out of stock—lower than the same time last year by more than 30 percentage points. A spokesperson for Butterball LLC, one of the largest U.S. turkey processors, said the company has been experiencing similar labor and supply challenges as other organizations and industries.

Even if you can find a turkey, prices on foodstuffs in general are up 36% from last year.

And to get to the grandparents’ house of Thanksgiving, gasoline prices (regular) are up 24.5% from last year.

You can always shop at Neiman Marcus for a half Thanksgiving dinner for … $376 + $32 shipping. Not for the average American, more for NYC and DC elitists like Biden’s OCC nominee Saule Omarova who wants to bankrupt energy companies.

Biden could lower inflation by 1) stop mandating vaccines, 2) stop shutting off energy pipelines and oil exploration, 3) stop spending trillions of dollars other than Social Security, Medicare and defense.

Frankly, Thanksgiving has gotten so expensive due to Biden’s Reign of Error that I am thinking of alternatives to turkey. Like a Jersey Mike’s turkey and provolone sub.

US Mortgage Rates Falls Below 3% (REAL Mortgage Rate Falls To -3.13%)

The Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage survey rate fell below 3% today to 2.98%.

And with today’s abysmal inflation report, the REAL 30-year mortgage rate fell to -3.13%.

Yes, President Biden is asking his economic council to do something about inflation. How about 1) telling The Fed to back off its outrageous and damaging stimulus and 2) stop shutting down pipelines.

Here is Joe Biden (aka, the Skipper) eyeing inflation from the White House.

Stimulypto! Red-Hot US Inflation Of 6.2% Implies That Fed Funds Target Rate Should Be … 14.94%! (11.10% If We Use Core Inflation)

How insanely overstimulated in the US economy by The Federal Reserve? Today’s red-hot inflation report of 6.2% YoY implies a Fed Funds Target rate of … 14.94%!! According to the Taylor Rule model, The Fed Funds Target rate should be almost 15%.

If we use CORE inflation (that is, CPI less food and energy), The Fed’s Target rate should be “only” 11.10%.

I feel like I am watching re-runs of Gilligan’s Island with Biden as the Skipper and Powell as Gilligan. Thurston Howell III and his wife lovey are the US Congress and Janet Yellen is the Professor. Case in point? REAL average hourly earnings YoY fell to -1.2% under the Gilligan’s Island leadership in DC.

Biden Starts To Freak Out About Soaring Inflation, Orders Economic Council To “Reduce Energy Costs”

This economic council?

Inflation Prints Hotter Than Expected (6.2% YoY)

My heart goes out to households living on a pension. And households who are not in the elite 1% class of Americans. Particularly if they rely on The Federal Reserve and Federal government to keep inflation low.

Inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) rose to 6.2%.

Yes, a large chunk of inflation is thanks to the green American lobby who want energy prices much higher. Due to the chip shortage, we have used cars and trucks soaring in price at 26.4% YoY growth.

Then we have my least favorite, most misleading inflation measure: shelter. According to the BLS, shelter rose “only” 3.5% YoY. Odd since home prices are growing a 20% YoY clip.

I know, I know. The media talking heads will say “temporary price increases.” Even with all the money pumped into the economy??

I know, I know, (CNN)President Joe Biden said Wednesday that inflation statistics showing America’s prices are surging more than they have in 30 years are proof that there is “more work to do before our economy is back to normal.”

Then stop printing money and slow down your terrible crony spending policies!!!

MBA Refi Applications Rise 7% From Previous Week As Rates Drop, Purchase Apps Flat

Mortgage applications increased 5.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 5, 2021.

The Refinance Index increased 7 percent from the previous week and was 28 percent lower than the same week one year ago. But thanks to Federal Stimulypto (as measured by M2 Money), mortgage refi applications remain higher than before COVID struck.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Note that we have in the waning months of mortgage applications and home price growth typically slows June.

By the numbers:

Let’s see if Pazuzu Powell can keep the ball rolling. Powell may have to pull out Fed Potion #9.

Tuff Enough? Can US Consumers Stand Biden’s Energy Policies? (West Texas Crude UP 58%, Regular Gasoline UP 43%, Heating Oil UP 54% Since Biden Inauguration)

President Biden wants to know if you are Tuff Enough to stand rapidly rising energy prices as he shuts down American supply?

Since Biden’s inauguration, West Texas Intermediate crude prices have soared by 58%, regular gasoline prices have soared by 43% and heating oil has soared by 54%.

How do you spell Federal energy policies? M-O-N-E-Y!

Meanwhile, US households are told to put on more blankets and drive less while the DC elites (like Obama, Kerry and Yellen) fly around the world in fossil-fuel guzzling jets lecturing everyone on the need to get rid of fossil fuels.

Odd, since annual CO2 emissions have declined significantly from 2007 levels.

The face of Biden’s energy policies. Blah-blah-blah.

The Inflation Tax Levied By The Federal Government Rose To 8.62% In October (Biden Interviews Brainard For Fed Chair Position)

Now that President Biden is interviewing Lael Brainard for Federal Reserve Chair, I am really getting a peaceless, uneasy feeling that The Fed will NEVER raise rates and inflation will be perpetual. To whit, …

Prices paid to U.S. producers accelerated in October, largely due to higher goods costs, fueling concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The producer price index for final demand increased 0.6% from the prior month and 8.6% from a year earlier, matching forecasts, Labor Department data showed Tuesday. The annual advance was the largest in figures back to 2010.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.4% and was up 6.8% from a year ago.

Prices paid to U.S. producers rose in October, reflecting in part higher energy costs

More than 60% of the headline increase was due to goods, which jumped 1.2%. Higher energy costs, including that for gasoline, drove the gain. The cost of services rose a more moderate 0.2% for a second month, reflecting a further pullback in the cost of securities brokerages and investment advice.

The report underscores how transportation bottlenecks, materials shortages and increasing labor costs have sent prices soaring across the economy in recent months. Trucking freight costs jumped a record 2.5% from September.

Inflation is a tax created by printing too much money and stupid Federal economic policies (or follicies).

Lael Brainard? Discussing the chairmanship with Brainard could signify that the Biden team is weighing how a break with Powell might help advance their goals for the central bank. Brainard and Powell work closely together on multiple issues and are viewed as holding similar views on monetary policy, but she’s favored a tougher stance on big banks.

Remember, The Federal Reserve is a privately-owned entity independent of The Federal Government. A Brainard appointment would make The Fed the financing arm of the Democrat Party.

US Financial Conditions Loosest In Four Decades (But Will Fed Tighten? Biden Likely To Appoint 4 Doves To Fed, So Not Likely)

US financial conditions are loose as a goose. And drunk as a skunk.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles will step down from the central bank in the last week of December, freeing up another vacancy for President Joe Biden to fill as he considers new leaders for the U.S. central bank. In October, the Fed announced that Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will be removed from his role as the main watchdog of Wall Street banks after his four-year-term officially expired.

Now Biden has 4 Fed positions to fill. Given Biden’s ravenous appetite to spend your money (but not Hunter’s money), Biden will likely appoint 4 doves to keep interest rates low as long as possible.

So, let’s join Joe and Hunter Biden down at the nightclub to celebrate the destruction of the US Dollar.