Bidenomics At Work! Mortgage Applications (Demand) Fall To 28-Years Lows As Mortgage Rates Highest Since November 2000 (Treasury 10Y Yield Climbs To 4.87%)

To paraphrase Paul Revere And The Raiders, “Mortgages keep getting harder to find.”

Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 13, 2023. Applications decreased to their lowest level since 1995, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased for the sixth consecutive week to 7.70 percent – the highest level since November 2000.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 10 percent from the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

And the 10-year Treasury yield keeps rising.

Inflation or cheap mortgages? What’s it going to be??

The iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) now down 51% from all-time high.

On the commercial real estate side, we see that the CRE cap rate is now lower than the 10Y Treasury yield.

Weekend Update! Gold UP, Mortgage Rates UP 174% Under Biden, Fed Balance Sheet Barely Below $8 Trillion (Yellen Speaks At IMF/World Bank Meeting In Marraskesh)

Well, the San Francisco 49ers are playing the Cleveland Browns today with the Browns missing injured RB Nick Chubb and QB Deshaun Watson, replacing them with QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (aka, Do Not Resuscitate or DNR) and RB Jerome “Exploding Pinto” Ford. ESPN gives the Browns a 26% chance of winning. I am amazed it is that high!

But back to economic news!

Gold is soaring due to the instability in the Middle East (Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah attacks on Israel). Let’s see if Israel continues it assault on Gaza or not.

Janet Yellen, Biden’s Treasury apparatchik, was at the IMF/World Bank meetings in Marrakesh (yes, former students are expecting me to like Crosby, Stills and Nash “Marrakesh Express” but I detest CS&N). Instead, here is Them with Here Comes The Night which is more fitting about risks in the global economy.

Debt squeeze

The heavy debt burdens of advanced economies — from the United States to China and Italy — was a recurrent theme in the meetings, which came after financial markets in recent weeks pushed U.S. bond yields higher. Italian central bank governor Ignazio Visco said there was an impression markets were “reevaluating the term premium” as investors become more nervous about holding longer-term debt.

JPMorgan chair of global research Joyce Chang put it another way. “The bond vigilantes are back, and the Great Moderation is over,” she told a panel of the two-decade era of relative economic calm before the 2008/09 financial crisis.

The Federal Reserve still hasn’t shrunk their massive balance sheet and removed the Covid stimulus. Call it lack of Fed retreat.

And mortgage rates continue to rise, up 174% under Stumblin’ Joe Biden despite The Fed not really shrinking their balance sheet.

The honorary drink for Bidenomics is The Fireballs “Bottle of (Cheap) Wine.” While Biden, Kerry and Obama drink Dom Perignon champagne.

I may be the only person in the US cheering for House Republicans being at an impasse over House Speaker. Why? Congress can’t approve massive spending bills with out a Speaker! Less spending, less inflation! There fixed inflation without The Fed.

Burning Down (The Economic) House? Food Prices UP 20% Under Bidenomics, Credit Card Delinquencies Now Higher Than During Covid As Credit Card Debt Grows To All-time High To Cope With Inflation

Is Biden trying to burn down the economic house? Under Bidenomics, America’s middle class and low wage workers are suffering from a wild, wild life in terms of inflation.

First, food prices are up 20% since December 2020. Talk about destruction of middle class wealth!

That is in addition to gasoline prices are up 64% under Biden while rent growth is up 252%. Well, Biden waived through millions of illegal immigrants and rent had to rise. Biden and Washington DC’s broken borders is Livin’ La Vida Loco.

To cope with inflation (that Paul Krugman claims is over but the last inflation report showed that the tinders of inflation are hard to extinguish), consumers have turned to credit cards to survive. In fact, credit cards have expanded 38% since April 2021 despite rapidly rising interest rates. And credit card delinquency rates are rising and are now above Covid-era economic shutdown levels.

Despite Krugman and Yellen’s screaming that inflation has been crushed, US household are anticipating FASTER inflation. To paraphrase the Emperor of Austria from “Amadeus,” “You are passionate Krugman and Yellen, but you do not persuade.”

And Billions Biden has just recorded the third largest deficit in history.

US Treasury Secretary (and former Fed Chair) Janet Yellen, the Destroyer of Wealth!

Fear The Talking Fed! 10Y Treasury Yield Subsides As Fed Presidents Speak While Hamas Terrorizes Israel (Fed Halting Rate Increases OR Flight To Safety?)

Like President Biden enjoying a barbeque at The White House with a live band (probably NOT Justin Moore singing “Small Town USA”) while Hamas declared war on Israel and Americans are being held hostage with the promise of public executions of hostages livestreamed. Nothing that “Empathy Joe” does ever surprises me anymore, but I am surprise that various Federal Reserve Presidents will speak today while Hamas terrorizes Israeli and US citizens.

It could be that investors think that Talking Heads at The Fed will claim that Fed rate increases are over. Then again, the Iran/Hamas terror campaign against Israel is spookking markets, driving up oil and gold prices and driving up “flight to safety” in US Treasuries.

President Biden called on Americans in Israel to book a commercial flight home, even though Israel has cancelled all flights. Does Old Joe even read the news??

Fear The Talking Fed!

Bidenomics At Work! Mortgage Rates Hit Almost 8% (Highest Since July 2000 Under Bill Clinton), Deficits This High Usually Occur During Recessions And HIGH Unemployment

Joe Biden, who has always been a compulsive liar but at least sounded cognicent, is now babbling and whispering that Bidenomics works. But for who?

Clearly not for first time homebuyers or people looking to move. Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate is up to almost 8%, the highest since July 2000 and Willy Slick Clinton. That is a 176% increase in mortgage rates under the most inept “Economic Sheriff” in history.

Deficits? Deficits (which Biden makes outlandish claims) are usually only this big at times of HIGH unemployment and recessions. So, are the staggering deficits under Biden a precursor to a hard landing (recession)? Don’t listen to what Biden or KJP say!!!

Biden’s outlandish claims that he single handedly reduced the deficit by the most in history is, well, typical Biden bloviating. Actually, tax receipts soared after Covid lockdowns ended. Period. Now that stimulus is wearing out, deficits are climbing again.

The REAL Hateful Eight!

Hey Bartender! US Economy Adds 336k Jobs, But Full-time Jobs Declined By -22k While Part-time Jobs Increased By 151k (Leisure And Hospitality Added 96,000 Jobs In September)

Hey Bartender! The leading employment gain under Bidenomics was … low paying leisure and hospitality jobs at 96k jobs added.

The US added a whopping 336K jobs, the highest monthly increase since January. This is surprising given that the ADP report was so weak.

And the BLS decided to UPWARD revised past numbers. The BLS revised not only August but also July higher: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 79,000, from +157,000 to +236,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000, from +187,000 to +227,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported.

Meanwhile wage growth continued to cool, and in September average hourly earnings increased 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected, and resulted in a 4.2% increase YoY, down from 4.3% in August…

… as a result of a big bump in lower paying jobs.

But perhaps the most remarkable divergence in the report is that with headline payrolls surging 336K (establishment survey), the Household Survey indicated that the pain continues, as the number of people employed not only rose by less than 100K (86K to be precise), but it was all part-time workers, which increased by 151K. Full-time workers? Why, they dropped by 22K, and the lowest since February.

Leisure and hospitality added 96,000 jobs in September, above the average monthly gain of 61,000 over the prior 12 months.

But the jobs report highlights Bidenomics. Lots of government jobs and the private sector getting crushed. +1 million government jobs, -400K non-government.

Hmm. How will The Federal Reserve view this report? Focus on the red-hot headline gain of 336k job added or the fact that it is mostly part-time jobs added? Odds of a rate HIKE rise to 44% after September jobs report and Fed PAUSE expectations have been extended.

After the jobs report, the US Treasury 10Y yield soared.

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen dramatically under Biden’s Reign of (Economic) Error.

The Consumer Just Crashed! Credit Card Spending Unexpectedly Cratered In September At -10.8% While Bank Credit Growth Goes Negative For 9th Straight Week

Coping with inflation caused by Federal spending (and excessive Fed stimulus) is difficult and eventually consumer max out their credit cards. Like now!

Credit card useage nosedived by -10.8% in September, according to Citi. This is the fifth straight month of spending decleration.

Leading the decline was electronics. The leader on the positive sign was … jewelry?? Hey, I thought mobs of people were robbing stores because they were hungry!!

In terms of bank credit, rising rates to fight inflation, bank credit growth Bank credit growth has been negative for nine straigth weeks.

Then we have unrealized losses on bank balance sheets, expected to surge to $700 billion with soaring interest rates.

On a different note, Homeland “Security” head Mayorkas now claims the US has to build a wall to combat the out-of-control immigration on the southern border. Wait! I thought Mayorkas and Congressional members (angrily) claim the border was secure! It doesn’t matter, Mayorkas is simply signalling to blue states that he will build a wall. But how fast is a different question.

Here is a video of tHe Biden Administration arranging for the border wall to be consructed. Mayorkas will likely call O’Reilly the builder to build the border wall.

Fear The Talking Fed! Treasury Rates Keep Climbing To Multiyear Highs As Fear Of More Rate Hikes Surfaces (Treasury Yields Decouple From Sinking Manufacturing Numbers)

Fear the talking Fed! Various Fed Presidents are talking this week and when they do. WATCH OUT!

The latest fear mongering will be … inflation is persistent and they might have to keeep raising rates.

The two-year Treasury remains above 5% and the 10Y-2Y T-Curve remains inverted.

Treasury 30-year yield rose to 4.856%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007.

The likelhood of another Fed rate hike is growing.

While inflation is cooling (but still elevated), The Fed could choose to rate hikes again.

Treaury yields have decoupled from US manufacturing data.

Best picture of Lael Brainard, Director of the National Economic Council of the United States and former Federal Reserve member and talking head. Or screaming head.

Freddie Mac’s 30Y Rate Rises To 7.31%, Highest Since Dec 2000, 10-year Treasury Yield Up To 4.67% (Mortgage Rate Up 69% Under Biden)

Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate is up to 7.31%, the highest level since December 2000. That means that mortgage rates are up 69% under Biden.

That is in spite of $2.5 TRILLION in agency MBS being held on The Fed’s balance sheet.

As the 10-year Treasury yield is up to 4.67%.

Biden’s Mortgage Market! Purchase Demand Down -27% Since Last Year As Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level In 20 Years

Wasting away again in Biden’s Mortgage Market! Looking for our lost economy.

Mortgage rates moved to their highest levels in over 20 years as Treasury yields increased late last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41 percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate increased to 7.34 percent, the highest rate in the history of the jumbo rate series dating back to 2011.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 22, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 27 percent lower than the same week one year ago.