Hot, Hot, Hot! Core Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected (50 BPS Rate Cut Likely Off The Table)

Feelin’ hot, hot, hot! Inlfation that is.

Following last month’s modest miss in CPI which sparked speculation about a 50bps cut, which was then boosted by the jobs report miss and the huge downward revision, moments ago the BLS reported that – as only a handful of Wall Street strategists warned – CPI actually came in hotter than expected at the core level, rising 0.3% MoM vs expectations of a 0.2% print, with all remaining metrics coming in line, to wit:

  • CPI 0.2% MoM (or 0.187% unrounded), Exp. 0.2% – in line
  • CPI Core 0.3% MoM (or 0.281% unrounded), Exp. 0.2% – hotter than expected
  • CPI 2.5% YoY, Exp. 2.5% – in line
  • CPI Core 3.2% YoY, Exp. 3.2% – in line

And visually, here is the headline print, where the annual CPI increase dropped to just 2.5% from 2.9%, the lowest since February 2021…

.. and the core….

…. as goods deflation is stalling and may even print positive in the coming months, while core service inflation remains the biggest driver.

That was s the 51st straight month of MoM increases in Core CPI, and a new record high.

Under the hood, used car prices fell 1.0%, moderating from last month’s 2.3% drop, while airline fares jumped 3.9%, a big reversal to last month’s bizarre -1.2% drop. Car insurance costs jumped another 0.6%, after rising 1.2%; furniture prices dropped 0.3% reversing last month’s 0.3% rise.

Perhaps more worrying is the fact that while rent inflation has flatlined, shelter inflation posted its first increase since early 2023!

  • August Shelter inflation up 0.43% MoM and up 5.23% YoY vs 5.05% in July
  • August Rent Inflation up 0.39% MoM and up 4.97% YoY vs 5.09% in July

And the first monthly increase since March 2023 highlighted:

Last, but not least, and perhaps most ominous of all, is that while inflation refuses to be “killed” even as the Fed is about to start cutting rates, Supercore CPI rose 0.33% MoM, the biggest monthly increase since April, driven by continued acceleration in transportation services, which jumped the most in 5 months.

Finally, money supply growth is reaccelerating…

Which begs the question: how long until the Fed’s next easing cycle unleashes the Arthur Burns fed:

Putting it all together:

  • Underlying inflation unexpectedly picked up, as core CPI increased 0.3% from July, the most in four months, and 3.2% from a year ago
  • Only five of the 65 forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey called for a 0.3% increase in the core CPI. Almost everyone else was at 0.2%, and four had it at 0.1%. The five were right.
  • Shelter prices, the largest category within services, climbed 0.5%, the most since the start of the year and the second month of acceleration, defying widespread expectations for a downshift. Owners’ equivalent rent — a subset of shelter and the biggest individual component of the CPI — rose at a similar pace.
  • Airfares rose a hefty 3.9% in August after falling for the previous five months while costs for energy and used vehicles fell
  • Risk assets pumped and dumped and bond yields rose. S&P 500 futures dropped steeply immediately after the report came out, before paring losses. The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.66%. The dollar wavered.

And while one can stick a fork in the market’s hopes for a 50bps rate cut (odds slumped from 30% to 20%… and from 50% last Friday)…

… the question remains: will the Fed really cut rates as shelter inflation inflects higher for the first time since 2023.

After last night’s ABC Presidential debate. Where Kamala acted like she was auditioning for part in the movie “Mean Girls” and the ABS moderators acted like pure Soviet-era Russian journalists.

South Of The Border? Native Born US Workers Lost 1.4 Jobs, Foreign Born Workers Gain 3 Million Jobs

South of the boder, down Mexico way.

Since October 2019, native-born US workers have lost 1.4 million jobs; over the same period foreign-born workers have gained 3 million jobs.

Ay ay ay ay, ay ay ay ay!

The last three monthly jobs reports show aggregate job gains of 340K.  Of that total 172K are accounted for by Health Care and Social Assistance and 60K by Government.  Manufacturing jobs have shrunk by 34K; Professional and Business services, a 16k decline.

Biden/Harris have alliowed the US to be invaded. Under Harris, the new US national anthem will be Jesusita en Chihuahua.

Slowing! Nonfarm Payrolls Up 142k, 2,358 Jobs Added In August (Considerably Below The Average Of 5,254 Jobs Added Since April 2021)

2023 and early 2024 saw numerous months where BLS reported jobs added increasing by 200k or more. but after May 2024, jobs added have been slowing,

In August 2024, US nonfarm payrolls rose by 142K, with job gains in construction and healthcare. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.7%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% to $35.21.

2,358 jobs were added in August. This is considerably below the average jobs added since April 2021 of 5,254 jobs added monthly.

Both previous months were revised sharply lower, so once again expect the August print to suffer the same fate. Specifically, the BLS said that the payroll print for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, and the change for July was revised down by 25,000, from +114,000 to +89,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 86,000 lower than previously reported It also means that 4 consecutive job prints have been revised lower, and 6 of the past 7.

Weekly hours worked remains below pre-pandemic average; a fraction of an hour per week may not sound like much, but multiply that by over 150 million people and 52 weeks per year, and that’s a significant difference in man-hours worked and aggregate income.

Yes, the US economy is slowing.

ADP Jobs Report: 1.3% YoY Jobs Added As Federal COVID Spending Runs Out of Steam (Grizzly Bear Economy)

We are dancing the Grizzly Bear with jobs reports.

The more truthful ADP report is out and it shows a wimpy 1.3% YoY addition in jobs. So much for a dynamic, growing economy under Biden/Harris. The Covid era Federal spending has run out of steam.

Ahead of tomorrow’s “most important data point in history” payrolls print, this morning we get the ADP employment report and jobless claims (and ISM Services) as an aperitif to tease the day traders and test the reaction functions of the algos.

Against expectations of adding 145k jobs (a slight improvement over July’s 122k), ADP’s Employment report printed a dismal +99k for August – the weakest print since January 2021 (and July’s +122k was revised down to +111k)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is also the fifth straight monthly decline in the ADP employment report’s jobs additions.

The highest-paying jobs segments including Manufacturing and Professional Services saw the largest job declines…

This was the weakest Services job growth since March 2023 as Manufacturing job growth also slowed…

“The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“The next indicator to watch is wage growth, which is stabilizing after a dramatic post-pandemic slowdown.”

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as a reminder, ADP has underestimated the official BLS data for 10 of the last 12 months…

Source: Bloomberg

So jobs growth weak (great news for the doves) but wage growth has stopped is disinflatinary trend (not a great picture).

Then we had that awful JOLTS report.

Under Biden/Harris inflation, …

Time Has Come Today! 2Y Yields Plunge To Below 4% As Fed’s Powell Says Time Has Come To Lower Rates

The time has come today! Or People Get Ready! Rates may drop!

US 2y yields plunge to 3.95% as Fed’s Powell says ‘time has come’ to cut interest rates. Says Fed doesn’t seek, welcome further cooling in labor market.

Of course, there is a Presidential election in 60 days and The Fed doesn’t want the Orange Man to win. Instead, they want the Green Gal to win (Kamala Harris). Here is Green Gal (Harris) with Green Porker (Walz).

Here is Kamala Harris at a DNC campaign rally.

Hey Big Spender! US Gov’t Pays $3 BILLION In Interest Per Day (Federal Unfunded Liabilities At $219 Trillion While Total US Assets At $213 Trillion)

Hey Big Spender! (Federal Government).

The US government now pays out on average $3bn in interest expenses per day…If the Fed cuts interest rates by 1%-point and the entire yield curve declines by 1%-point, then daily interest expenses will decline from $3bn per day to $2.5bn per day.

Even worse, unfunded Federal liabilities total $219 trillion while total US assets total only $213 trillion. In other words, if China (for example) forced us to pay off our unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare, etc., we couldn’t.

Notice how NO politician ever discusses The Federal goverment spending LESS money. Particularly not Joe “The fool on the hill” Biden or Kamala “Word salad Kammie” Harris.

Happy Labor Day! Market Pricing In Nearly 250 BPS In Rate Cuts While Biden/Harris Overstate Job Gains By Almost 1 MILLION Jobs

What a long, strange trip it has been under the gross economic mismanagement by the Biden/Harris team.

First, market participants are pricing in nearly 250 basis points (or 2.5%) in rate cuts by Jan 2026. Down to 3% from the cuurent rate of 5.50.

Why? The economy is a shambles due to bad economic policies by Harris/Biden and their Congressional stooges, especially Schumer in the Senate and Pelosi in the House. Hence, The Fed will feel pressure to lower rates. Although I don’t think that it will happen.

Of course, the Philly Fed disclosed that the Biden/Harris administration overstated jobs added by almost 1 million jobs in Q2. I would love to see Harris interviewed about that and watch her deflect and break into gales of laughter. How do American workers feel about Biden/Harris overstating jobs gains by almost 1 million jobs?? Isn’t that fraud?

Yield beta is expected to accelerate.

The Broken Arms of Krupp! ThyssenKrupp Has NEGATIVE Enterprise Value (How The Mighty Have Fallen!)

I read “The Arms of Krupp” by William Manchester. A great book about the rise of ThyssenKrupp during World War II. It is one of the world’s largest steel producers, but it now has NEGATIVE ENTERPRISE VALUE.

The cause? Germany is up the creek without an economic paddle after years of gross mismanagement by Angela Merkel and her party. Mass immigration in Germany and a slowdown in the global economy aren’t helping.

A dire warning for America.

Highway To Hell! US Pending Home Sales Index Falls Below Pandemic Low (Now At Worst Ever Level)

Biden/Harrisnomics is the US ecoonomy’s highway to hell.

US pending home sales just fell to below pandemic lows and is officially the worst in history.

Way to go Biden/Harris. The economy distorters and killers. Welcome to NEW Venezuela!

American Peronism: Kamala’s Plan to Ruin America’s Economy (Harris Is America’s Evita [Eva Peron])

08/24/2024•Mises WireDaniel Lacalle

Price controls, higher taxes, government intervention, and subsidies paid for by printing a constantly devalued currency.

These are the essential pillars of “21st century socialism” and the radical left Peronism that obliterated Argentina. These are also the main elements of the economic plan presented by Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. Undoubtedly, this is the most radical socialist economic plan ever announced by the Democrats.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Harris’s proposals will cost $1.95 trillion over 10 years. However, it emphasizes that if certain measures become permanent, this figure could increase to $2.25 trillion.

The Harris campaign has stated that these costs will be offset by a classic excuse of socialism in any election: “higher taxes on corporations and high earners.” This is, obviously, ludicrous, because there is no revenue measure that will cover the already bloated $2 trillion annual deficit and an added $2 trillion. The mantra of “higher taxes for the rich” always means higher taxes and more inflation, a hidden tax, for you.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has already warned of the fiscal disaster of the United States, with an annual deficit of 6% of GDP. Despite not accounting for a recession and projecting record tax revenues from 2024 to 2034, the CBO predicts an explosion in the budget deficit from $1.9 trillion to $2.8 trillion by 2034, even before factoring in Harris’s new spending plan. This means that the adjusted deficit will rise above 6.9 percent of GDP by 2034, almost twice the average of 3.7 percent over the previous 50 years.

Following the Harris plan, the United States public debt will likely increase by $24 trillion in a decade. As I have explained, there is no set of revenue measures that can bring $2 trillion per year in additional tax receipts, and tax hikes will harm both investment and growth.

An economy that generates an annual deficit of 6 percent of GDP to achieve a mere 2 percent annual growth is already on a dangerous path, and Harris’ plan would make it even worse.

Kamala Harris promises to cut inflation by spending and printing more money, reducing competition, and attacking businesses. It has never worked and never will because it is upside-down economics. Welcome to the US “Peronism.”.

Imagine all those United States citizens who have escaped Latin American or European economies impoverished by interventionism to find a better opportunity in the United States only to find that the same policies will be implemented by Harris.

The narrative of price gouging and greedflation is simply false. In 2023, profit margins in the grocery industry hit the lowest level since 2019, at 1.6%, according to the IMF. Corporations, even if they were stupid and reckless, cannot make all prices rise constantly. Competition would eat away at their market share; newcomers would eliminate them, and aggregate prices would fall. Furthermore, stores and businesses cannot make aggregate prices soar, maintain the increase, and consolidate it, which is the measure of inflation (CPI) we read every month. The only thing that can make all prices rise and continue increasing at a slower pace is printing money and eroding the purchasing power of the currency.

The only thing that can make aggregate prices rise constantly is the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency, which comes from massive government spending and printing currency to disguise fiscal imbalances.

Kamala Harris and her team know that their spending plan will make the national debt soar and that price controls do not reduce prices. In fact, these should not be called “price controls” but “limits to competition.” If corporations were the cause of inflation and price controls were the solution, Peronist Argentina would have enjoyed the lowest inflation in the world in the past decades.

Harris’ proposals to forgive debt are profoundly anti-social. They do not forgive any debt; they just add it to the national debt and make you pay for it. This enormous increase in public debt will be a burden for every American, particularly the poorest, with persistent inflation and lower real wages. US citizens have already endured negative real wage growth since January 2021, when Biden took office, according to the Federal reserve of St Louis. Expect worse.

Why does Harris promote the same policies that have failed everywhere? Promising free stuff and blaming others for the negative consequences is the defining strategy of socialist politicians.

Are you surprised to see how Germany, France, and other historically rich nations slump into stagnation, high debt, persistent inflation, enormous taxes, and the destruction of the middle class? Those policies are what Harris is promising. Who benefits? The vast government and its surrounding corporations reap the benefits.

Many people hold the belief that a nation cannot be considered socialist if it contains private companies. It makes no sense. State control does not limit itself to capital ownership but also to the imposition of increasingly restrictive laws, regulations, and confiscatory taxes. In fact, the government likes to absorb most of the wealth created by the private sector without the inconvenience of managing the businesses. Huerta de Soto defines socialism as “any system of institutional, methodical aggression against the free exercise of entrepreneurship” and that is precisely what Harris promises.

Higher taxes and more debt.

The government will print money to provide subsidies in a currency that is constantly losing value. It will blame stores and businesses for inflation. Interventionist policies will continue to erode the private sector. And they will repeat.

The makers of these policies are aware that they will negatively impact the economy, yet they will also engender a substantial number of enslaved citizens who rely on the government and must abide by its decisions. Voters see an alleged tsunami of free money but ignore the fact that they will pay for it through higher inflation, lower real wages, and diminishing opportunities for small businesses and families.

Yes, under Obama/Biden, then Biden/Harris,

The Harris team believes deficits do not matter and that the Federal Reserve can always disguise any budget imbalance. However, cracks have already appeared. Persistent inflation is the consequence of years of excessive spending and monetization. The next step is the risk of losing the US dollar as the world reserve currency when the world stops accepting the ever-increasing debt.

Under Obama/Biden and Biden/Harris, we have seen massive money printing and devaluation of the US Dollar. Trump/Pence too, but they were nailed with Covid. And the Democrat shut down off schools and local economies.

But all Harris (America’s Eva Peron) wants to do is dance. And not answer serious questions.