High housing prices, high commodity prices, high interest rates. All thanks to Biden’s horrible top-down economic policies. Its as is Biden was humming “I’m going to take prices higher” while he was President.
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000.
The most unaffordble countries are Portugal, Canada, the USA, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic. The most affordable? Romania, Finland, Italy, and Bulgaria.
For the USA, Hawaii and California are the least affordable while West Virginia and Iowa are the most affordable.
The US got hit with 2 deadly viruses in 2020. First, Covid-19 struck then another deadly virus struck in late 2020 with the election of DEI-obsessed Joe Biden, the worst President in history.
With rising interest rates and housing prices under “Clueless Joe,” buying conditions for housing plunged from around 160 under Trump to an abysmal 30 under Biden. And now Trump.
For the second straight month, US home prices accelerated YoY in December (according to the latest data from S&P Global’s Case-Shiller Index). The 20-City Composite saw prices jump 0.5% MoM (faster than expected and the biggest jump since June) and accelerating MoM for the 3rd straight month.
Only Tampa FLA of the top 20 metro areas had a negative YoY price change, but 14 of the top 20 metro areas experienced price declines from November to December: Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa and Washington DC.
I call this the house latitudes. Horse latitudes is a belt of calm air and sea occurring in both the northern and southern hemispheres between the trade winds and the westerlies. And when the ships motion stalled, the crews would jetison their cargo of horses to the delight of sharks! So, we are in state of HOUSE latitudes where the wind pushing mortgage refis and purchase apps. So we are all riders on the storm.
Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 39 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Privately-owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,366,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,515,000 and is 0.7 percent below the January 2024 rate of 1,376,000. Single-family housing starts in January were at a rate of 993,000; this is 8.4 percent below the revised December figure of 1,084,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 355,000.
The conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering just below 7%.
Note that on the left=hand side of the above chart that the US Treasury yield curve slope (green dashed line) hit its local high as Joe Biden became President, then began to decline as the insane spending ensued. Mortgage rates started to rise in 2022 as the yield curve slope declined.
But will the yield curve continue to fall along with mortgage rates? I hope not, because it would require to Biden’s insane spending.
Speakig of killers, DNA tests revealed that Aaron Kosminski, a Polishbarber was the murderer known as Jack The Ripper. Although Janet Yellen was my leading suspect.
Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier.
The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 33 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Prepays are down significantly since 2021 which marks the beginning of The Fed starting to raise rates.
Aggregate prepayments for agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) fell 12% in January, with housing seasonals declining and mortgage rates lingering near 7%. MBS turnover speeds have bounced back considerably relative to 2023 lows, though high rates may be starting to take a toll. Even at current elevated rates, GNMA streamline refinancings are picking up as loans issued in spring of 2024 pass out of the refi lockout period.
Most of the job gains in the past few years, and especially 2024, were a mirage, and following the dramatic August 2024 preliminary data revision which vaporized 818K jobs (which had never existed in the first place.
Over 1 Mmillion foreign-born workers found a job in January … but virtually no native borns.
And in the longer view, you can see the Biden/Harris effect after 2021.
Biden/Harris were economic heartbreakers. For the middle class, not for the Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders class who made out like bandits under Biden’s corrupt leadership.
Big pharma owns Bernie, Liz, Chuckie, Patty Murray, Warnock and Wyden.
No, its not 1903. Its 2025 and Dayton Ohio is the third most affordable city in the USA.
Ohio, the cradle of American Presidents (McKinley, Grant, Taft, Benjamin Harrison, Hayes, Garfield, Harding), is also home to 4 of the most affordable cities in the USA, according to The Virtual Capitalist.
As expected, the Trump Administration levied tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China, etc. The short-term result? Gold is stable, Bitcoin fell. Or as Gene Autry sang, “South of the Border (Down Mexico Way)”.
The stock market? Down -1.53%.
And then we have the doom porn about Mexico’s “impending” collapse. The Peso is declining, and Senator Chuck Schumer is getting hysterical about Mexican exports to the USA for Super Bowl Sunday. He incorrectly claimed that most beer is imported from Mexico and avacados for guacamole. Avacados are also grown in the USA, Peru, etc.
Bear in mind that Mexico is like California where the Left holds a supermajority. Hence, Mexico employs destructive economic policies (it could only be worse if California Governor Gavin Newsom was President of Mexico. But Mexico’s impending collapse is years in the making and Trump’s tariffs were only the last nudge over the cliff. Mexico COULD try to get control over the drug and human trafficking cartels, stop illegal immigration and stop the flow of fentanyl.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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