Trump’s Private Market Economy Soars Despite Low Inflation (Biden’s Government Economy Was The Inverse – High Inflation, Low GDP Growth)

Welcome to the Trump economic revolution!

As of June 9, 2025, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimates that real GDP growth was 3.8%. So much for Trump’s tariff “war” destroying the economy.

Latest estimate: 3.8 percent — June 09, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 9, unchanged from June 5 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from -2.2 percent to -1.9 percent.

Biden relied on government hiring and Fed’s money printing to drive the US economy. And then the gas ran out.

Those Were The Days? Atlanta Fed GDP Q2 Now At 3.8% (Fed Rate Cut Looks Unlikely)

The dismal days of Biden/Harris/Yellen are gone. Although Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries and my in-laws are all singing “Those Were The Days.” Of immense government corruption and waste.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 5, down from 4.6 percent on June 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.0 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -2.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to annualized second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.36 percentage points to 2.01 percentage points.

Here is the breakdown.

The Fed still needs to lower rates by 100 basis points, but that looks unlikely.

Glad All Over! AI Contributes Massive Amount To GDP Growth As Median Home Price Growth Contracts

I am glad all over … because the AI boom is delivering a record contribtion to US GDP.

And US home prices are contracting making housing more affordable.

I don’t care what you did when you lived in Fort Worth, but at least home prices are contracting.

Core PCE Fell In April To Lowest Since April 2021, +2.5% YoY (Fed M2 Money Printing UP 4.3% YoY)

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – fell once again in April to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5% YoY.

And The Fed keeps on printing money!

Supercore inflation is down to -0.023 MoM.

The Fed is thinking that they can help.

Pending Home Sales Remain In The House Latitudes (Homebuilder Confidence At 34)

Its like Joe Biden and his bonehead advisors are still gumming up the housing market. Pending home sales in April remains in the house latitudes.

NAHB home builder confidence remains below 50 at 34.

Is the music over for the housing market? High housing prices, high mortgage rates, restrictive zoning all hinder markets.

New Home FHA Mortgage Share Surges As Debt-To-Income Ratios Surge (New-home Loan Sizes Fell To 2021 Levels)

The not shocking news out of DC: The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will “Massively” Increase Near-Term Deficits, Add $5 Trillion In Debt. The surprising news? New home FHA Mortgage Share has surged!

On the not surprising news front: FHA debt-to-income ratios have surged (the surge started under Biden).

New-home loan sizes have fallen to 2021 levels.

Moody’s Downgrades USA Credit Rating From Aaa (M2 Money UP 40% Since Covid, Public Debt UP 56%, US CDS Down Near Greek Levels!)

Now you know why Trump is so eager to cut wasteful spending! The real mystery is why Democrats and RINOs are so determined to continue wasteful spending and not cut taxes.

Trump inherited a fiscal disaster from Biden and Congress. Not to mention The Federal Reserve. Credit default swaps (CDS) for the USA are near Greece (and China) levels.

Since Covid struck in 2020, US debt is up a staggering 56%!

And M2 Money is up 40% since Covid.

Opa! Our country is on fire!

Stock Market Soars As China Flinches! (NASDAQ 100 Highest Since Mid February)

Well, U.S. and China reached an agreement to lower tariffs in a 90-day cool-off period. Despite China claiming they would NEVER agree to tariffs! The result? The NASDAQ 100 rose to its highest level since mid-February.

So much for the MSNBC/CNN doomsayers.

Delinquency Rate On US Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) For offices SURGED To 10.3% In April (Near Highest EVER)

The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SURGED to 10.3% in April, near the highest EVER.

Moreover, the multifamily delinquency rate spiked 113bps in April, to 6.57%, the highest since 2015.

Mortgage Applications Increased 11% From Preceding Week, Fed Will Remain On Hold (Purchase Apps Up 12%)

The Fed can help, but won’t. We are still struggling to recover from Biden’s cockeyed management of the economy,

Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The economic news last week included a negative reading for first-quarter GDP growth and further signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector, mixed with a solid employment report for April. The net impact on mortgage rates was mostly downward but just back to levels from early April. The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.84 percent.

But there will be no rate cuts today from The Fed.