Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
I’ll feel a whole lot better when CMBS office serious delinquenies get below 10%. But serious delinquencies on office space is currently at 10.59%.
The US Treasury yield curve is steepening.
Office delinquencies are likely to rise in Los Angeles as Governor Newsom sits on his greasy hands as LA burns.
Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 30, 2025. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Most mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.92 percent and staying in the 6.8 to 7 percent range since April.
Biden/Harris/Yellen’s gross economic mismanagement reminds me of the song “Into The Mystic.” Because it requires a mystic to determine WHO was running the Biden/Harris adminstration and using the autopen.
CC Rider! 30Y MBC Current Coupon (CC) spreads is widening.
And metals are along for the ride! Gold and silver are soaring!
I am glad all over … because the AI boom is delivering a record contribtion to US GDP.
And US home prices are contracting making housing more affordable.
I don’t care what you did when you lived in Fort Worth, but at least home prices are contracting.
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – fell once again in April to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5% YoY.
And The Fed keeps on printing money!
Supercore inflation is down to -0.023 MoM.
The Fed is thinking that they can help.
US 30y bond yields are heading toward their highest level since 2007.
The yield curve has finally normalized!
And significantly steeper in 2025.
Later and shallower rate cuts are being priced.
The not shocking news out of DC: The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will “Massively” Increase Near-Term Deficits, Add $5 Trillion In Debt. The surprising news? New home FHA Mortgage Share has surged!
On the not surprising news front: FHA debt-to-income ratios have surged (the surge started under Biden).
New-home loan sizes have fallen to 2021 levels.
Now you know why Trump is so eager to cut wasteful spending! The real mystery is why Democrats and RINOs are so determined to continue wasteful spending and not cut taxes.
Trump inherited a fiscal disaster from Biden and Congress. Not to mention The Federal Reserve. Credit default swaps (CDS) for the USA are near Greece (and China) levels.
Since Covid struck in 2020, US debt is up a staggering 56%!
And M2 Money is up 40% since Covid.
Opa! Our country is on fire!
Well, U.S. and China reached an agreement to lower tariffs in a 90-day cool-off period. Despite China claiming they would NEVER agree to tariffs! The result? The NASDAQ 100 rose to its highest level since mid-February.
So much for the MSNBC/CNN doomsayers.
The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SURGED to 10.3% in April, near the highest EVER.
Moreover, the multifamily delinquency rate spiked 113bps in April, to 6.57%, the highest since 2015.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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