Category: Gold

Soothe Me? Q1 GDP Now At -2.8% As 10Y Treasury Yield Falls To 4.157% (Recession Jitters?)

Soothe me? As we move further away from Sleepy Joe’s horrid economic policies, we should see an improvement in GDP from the current Atlanta Fed GDP Now Q1 Forecast of -2.8%.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26.

The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -3.95 percentage points to -4.79 percentage points in the standard model and from -1.92 percentage points to -2.53 percentage points in the alternative model.

The US Treasury 10Y yield has fallen to 4.157% as recession fears mount.

Simply Unaffordable! Multifamily Serious Delinquencies Soar To Highest Since 2000 (Home Prices UP 37% Under Biden, Rents UP 25%)

Housing and rental properties are simply unaffordable.

Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rate on Multifamily (Apartment) loans soared to highest rate since 2000. Since it is as of January 31, 2025, you can’t blame this on Donald Trump (although I am sure they will try).

Of course, home prices and rents soared under Biden. Home prices rose 37% under Biden and rents rose 25%. Simply unaffordable.

And The Fed will keep on printing money!

Credit has been deteriorating.

The Empire Strikes Out! NY’s Empire State Activity Survey Drops To -19.30 (Biden Hangover)

The Imperial March from Star Wars should have been the theme for Bidenomics, the top-down government-directed economy (mainly to political donors). It will take a while for the economy to recover from its addiction to Federal government spending.

Speaking of The Empire, the New York Fed’s Empire State business activity survey declined to -19.30. Would Jerome Powell and The Fed have cut rates had they known about the Empire activity survey yesterday?

Emperor Palpatine. Aka, 10% Joe.

Eggs And Money? Eggs Prices Plummet For 3rd Straight Week As M2 Money Velocity Rises

New USDA data reveals a third consecutive week of price declines at supermarkets.

But the media is always willing to blame Trump for anything, including eggs prices.

Velocity of M2 Money is back to where is was when Trump left office the first time.

Eggs versus M2 Money.

Riding the Trump wave of economic optimism!

Mortgage Applications Increased 11.2 Percent From Last Week (Purchase Index Increased 8 Percent)

The US economy is gradually recovering from Bidenomics (government/donor dictated spending). Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week and was 90 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates declined for the sixth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping to 6.67 percent, the lowest level since October 2024. As a result, applications increased over the week and were up 31 percent from a year ago.

Turnover speeds are arisin’!

Subprime Crisis 2? Subprime Auto Delinquencies Soar Under Biden/Harris To 6.6%

Thank God President Auto Pen is out of office!

Inflation? Lower real wage growth? Excessive personal loan growth?? All resulting in historic subprime auto loan delinquency rate of 6.6%.

Auto Loan 60+ Day Delinquency Index

Der Kommissar! Germany’s 10Y Bund Swap Spread Turns Negative, Investors Sour On Debt

Der Kommissar!

German 10-year bond yields are trading above euro interest rate swaps for the first time in history (-12.62), a watershed moment for these markets that underlines just how much investors have soured on government debt.

Bund yields +30bps today – the biggest spike on record going back to 1990.

Is the US next?

Cabbage Rolls And Coffee! Mortgage Applications Increased 20.4 Percent From One Week Earlier

The mortgage market is back! Time to polka!!

Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 20.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 22 percent compared with the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 37 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Thank God the adults are in charge in DC instead of the children we saw at Trump’s speech last night.

The Fool? US Dollar Soars As Probability Of Default Reaches 42%

Trump inherited a brittle economy from “The Fool” Joe Biden. And it is shown up.

The Trump Administration is fighting the remnants of Biden’s policies by cutting spending (DOGE) and deregulation.

All this has resulted in a soaring US Dollar.

Tarot cards have officially renamed “The Fool” card as “The Biden.” Although in Washington DC, there is no shortage of fools (see Maxine Waters (D-CA) and Rashida Talib (D-MI).