MMT (Mostly Magic Theory)! The Fraud Of ‘Monetary Policy’ (Mortgage Rates Rising With Magical Fed Money Printing)

MMT is mostly magic! The Federal Reserve relies on “The Power of Magic” to fool people. For example, the massive increase in money printing following Covid and Biden’s disastrous economic policies (or FOLLICIES).

Modern monetary theory (MMT) is not convincing to most trained economists of various schools of thought. This causes many to balk at MMT and mock it, some of which is warranted as a reductio ad absurdum, especially given some of MMT’s more outlandish claims. In fact, my own thesis was an Austrian critique of MMT.

But there is also a fair amount of hypocrisy in the non-Austrian (e.g., mainstream, Keynesian, monetarist) critiques of MMT by mainstream economists. The truth is that most, if not all, of these economists share the same faulty presuppositions regarding what is euphemistically called “monetary policy.” The difference between mainstream and MMT economists is usually one of degree, not of kind.

Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman (1987–2006) and most definitely not an MMT proponent, made a very MMT-friendly claim: “The United States can pay any debt it has because it can always print money to do that, so there is zero probability of default.” While this is literally true, and points to the fact that the nominal debt and dollars are not the issue, it overlooks the distortionary consequences from this manipulation on the entire structure of production. Nevertheless, such a claim is often also repeated by proponents of MMT, as if it contains some magic missing ingredient to unlock greater stores of wealth.

In fact, MMT provides a warranted critique to other schools of economic thought that share an underlying premise while not arriving at the same conclusions. That assumption is so-called monetary policy—that governments via a central banking monopoly ought to be the sole entity that issues and controls money as a policy instrument. The dubious justifications for this are that it provides greater economic stability and expansion of money and credit according to the needs of trade. (Both of these are false, theoretically and empirically.) That said, MMT and mainstream economics both share this presupposition, assuming the validity of monetary policy.

As an example of presenting the broad mainstream on the definition of “monetary policy,” the popular financial encyclopedia Investopedia has previously stated the following:

“Monetary policy is a set of tools that a nation’s central bank has available to promote sustainable economic growth by controlling the overall supply of money that is available to the nation’s banks, its consumers, and its businesses. . . . The main weapon at its disposal is the nation’s money (italics added).”

The casual use of the word “weapon” is apt. In the hands of a state monopoly, money can indeed be “weaponized.” Inflation is the artificial expansion of money and credit that has the effect of transferring wealth from all money holders to the inflater(s). This may be done under the guise of “policy”—appearing official, orderly, and legitimate—but it involves elites in power taking actions that would otherwise be criminal behavior (e.g., fraud and counterfeiting).

Even without the ethical-philosophical discussion on whether changing the money supply is fraudulent, economically, the consequences remain. The inflation of money and fiduciary media (artificial credit) causes economic miscalculations and boom-bust cycles, distorts the structure of production, encourages capital consumption, undermines the actions of individuals, discourages saving, transfers wealth from the citizenry to the government and those who are politically connected, affects money’s purchasing power, and has a whole host of other unintended effects. All this, of course, is done under the legal cover of “policy” to achieve “stable economic growth,” as well as ambidextrously maintaining the false dichotomy between full employment and inflation.

Enter MMT, which takes “monetary policy” concepts to their logical conclusions, demonstrating the consequences in a striking way, and mainstream economists quickly want to disassociate themselves from this “crazy” new idea. People may not appreciate some MMTers claiming what they do about inflation, government spending, full employment, and debt; yet politicians and monetary bureaucrats sure seem to act like they believe MMT.

MMT correctly observes that government—through a balance of taxation, deficit spending, inflation, and monetary policy—attempts to centrally control an economy and does, in fact, direct real resources toward its ends. These are common policy tools of the state and central banks. MMT would just like to leverage these tools to a greater extent and direct them toward different ends. Likewise, Investopedia had further clarified

“The Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy in the U.S. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has what is commonly referred to as a dual mandate: to achieve maximum employment while keeping inflation in check.”

Is this above statement not basically a statement of the goals of MMT? Other economic schools of thought that accept the underlying presuppositions of the necessity of monetary policy are not fundamentally in disagreement with MMT on this point; in fact, they are in fundamental agreement. This undermines the ability of these schools to effectively deliver a fundamental critique of MMT rather than just disagreements about how and to what extent monetary policy is to be utilized.

Economic criticism on these points—whether from MMT to the “other side” or from the “other side” to MMT—involves inconsistency. By condemning the other, they condemn themselves because they share core presuppositions. The existence of MMT is effectively a reductio ad absurdum of so-called monetary policy. MMT reasonably asks: What if we did more of the same? Obviously, the degree to which something is done can be critiqued without abandoning the whole thing, but the flawed assumptions are twofold: (1) that there is “just the right amount” of monetary policy and (2) that there are certain enlightened experts who know what it is and only need monopoly over the money supply to achieve it.

Whether MMT or otherwise, proponents of so-called monetary policy essentially believe that money is a policy instrument (or weapon) to be wielded by government elites to rearrange prices, resources, and the structure of production contrary to the demonstrated preferences of millions of individuals. Therefore, the United States has been under a monetary policy regime of “stabilizers” who have argued about how to implement a fundamentally flawed “policy” for over a century. 

Whenever this fails and destabilizes the economy, we are treated to critics who blame the free market and deregulation and who want to use monetary policy to “run the economy” differently.

Instead, we ought to abandon the fraud of monetary policy and heed the words of F.A. Hayek concerning the results of monetary policy that led to America’s Great Depression:

“We must not forget that, for the last six or eight years [up to 1932] monetary policy all over the world has followed the advice of the stabilizers. It is high time that their influence, which has already done harm enough, should be overthrown.”

Mortgage rates have actually risen as The Fed has increased M2 Money printng. Like DARK magic.

Sahm’s Club? June Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule Suggests Recession Imminent

This isn’t the Sahm’s Club that is good fpr consumers. This is the club which crushes consumers. Better to be called Joe’s Club after our demented President Joe Biden.

In this morning’s US Bureau of Labor Statistics data release, the U-3 unemployment rate increased 4.1 percent in June 2024, rising by one-tenth of a percentage point above the forecast rate. The U-3 rate measures the percentage of the civilian labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work, and available to work, excluding discouraged workers and the underemployed. 

This uptick triggers the Sahm Rule, a real-time recession indicator, suggesting that the US economy is in, or is nearing, a recession. The Sahm Rule, developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, is designed to identify the start of a recession using changes in the total unemployment rate.

According to the rule, a recession is underway if the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more, relative to its low during the previous 12 months. With the June 2024 U-3 rate of 4.1 percent, the average of the last three months being 4.0 and the lowest 12-month rate of 3.5 percent in July 2023, this criterion has been met.

Sahm Rule indications (1960 – 2024)

Source: Bloomberg

Surveys had forecast the U-3 rate to hold steady at 4.0 percent in June, unchanged from May 2024. The seemingly small 0.1 percent uptick, however, carries substantial implications for the broader economy. One possible confounding effect of the signal is growth in the labor force: If the labor force grows rapidly and the economy does not generate enough jobs to match the increase, the unemployment rate might rise and the Sahm Rule may be triggered, even if overall employment is increasing.

The rise of initial claims over the past few weeks, and nine consecutive increases in continuing claims, support the June 2024 Sahm indication.

Source: Bloomberg

Equity futures were flat just after the release, while Treasuries rallied across all maturities.

In recent months, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that “unexpected weakness” may prompt a start to an accommodative policy stance without the additional data sought regarding the pace of disinflation. Historically, an increase in unemployment rates and the onset of a recession have led to policy adjustments aimed at stimulating economic growth and mitigating job losses, and the reversal of the rate hikes which began in 2022 to mitigate the highest inflation in four decades has been widely anticipated.

While more data will be required to confirm the Sahm Rule indication, the impact of accelerating prices, interest rates at their highest levels since 2007, and commercially suppressive pandemic policies have probably caught up with US producers and consumers.

Biden’s version of Sahm’s Club. Where the economy tanks and all he and his wife Jill care about is staying in Power. Perhaps we should call the sagging US economy “Joe’s Club.”

Getting Out Of Dodge! May’s Active Housing Inventory Explodes +27.5% YoY (Denver UP 75.2% YoY)

Gimme two steps to sell my house. Are people getting out of dodge?? Calfornia Gpvernor “Greasy Gavin” Newsom sold his Sacramento home and moved to Marin County for better schools. Sacrramento active housing inventory is up 65.6% YoY.

Active housing inventory in May is up 27.5% YoY nationally, with Denver leading at 75.2% YoY. I highlight Columbus Ohio at +32.9% since that is where I live.

While the government may be able to fake BLS and CPI data to gloss over the fact that 5.5% rates have already likely driven the nation into a deep recession, independent data on the housing market is showing a decades-long shortage in inventory starting to rebound. 

A new report from Construction Coverage has revealed where the largest increases in real estate inventory in the U.S. are taking place.

The report notes that the current housing shortage—which is now estimated to be between four million and seven million homes—can trace its beginnings to long before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the 10 years following the Great Recession, the United States constructed fewer new homes than in any other decade since the 1960s.

They write that the lack of housing affects certain areas more severely than others. Researchers ranked locations based on the percentage change in the average monthly housing inventory—the total number of active listings plus pending sales at the end of the month—between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024.

Data from a national level showed that U.S. housing inventory decreased from more than two million in 2012 to a low of approximately 630,000 at the start of 2022.

Over the same period, months’ supply—a measure of how long it would take existing inventory to sell if no new homes came on the market—plummeted from a national high of 7.5 months to a historic low of 1.1 months, the report adds.

It also noted that inventory has rebounded slightly since early 2022: throughout the first quarter of 2024, the national inventory hovered around 970,000 homes for sale, marking a 4.0% year-over-year increase.

Despite this uptick, existing inventory would sustain the current sales pace for just 2.9 months—a marginal increase from the 2.8 months’ supply recorded last year.

The report broke down trends by cities and states, finding that as of the first quarter of 2024, states with the lowest levels of supply are concentrated in and around the Midwest (such as Kansas with 1.5 months of supply) and the Northeast (including Rhode Island with 1.8 months of supply).

However, Washington also stands out for having some of the lowest levels of available housing nationally, with just 1.9 months of supply.

In contrast, several states in the South, led by Florida (5.2 months of supply), along with Hawaii (5.2 months) and Montana (5.1 months), present notably more favorable conditions for buyers.

Among the nation’s largest cities, Denver, El Paso, and Dallas recorded the largest year-over-year increases in housing inventory. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Las Vegas, Raleigh, and Chicago recorded the biggest declines.

The data is hardly a 2008-style collapse, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t noteworthy. 

While the ‘turning of the tide’ still remains muted, the housing market is so large it rarely corrects swiftly. It’s important to notice, however, that rising inventory ticking higher – combined with mortgage rates now over 7% – could easily be telegraphing a correction in prices heading into 2025.

Did NAIOP Get The Memo? Moody’s Predicts 24% Of Office Towers Will Be Vacant By 2026 (Attendance In 10 Largest Business Districts Still Below 50% Of Pre-COVID Level)

Did NAIOP get the memo? NAIOP (National Association of Industrial and Office Properties) is a trade group comprised of commericial real estate developers and academics. Lobbying for more office space to be built despite overbuilding,

Another chink in the armor of the US economy (not the roaring economy Biden and Yellen keep screaming about). Overbuilding of office space, COVID shutdowns, remote working and urban crime. A recipe for office vacancy. Moody’s predicts 24% of office towers will be vacant by 2026!

During the first three months of 2023, U.S. office vacancy topped 20 percent for the first time in decades. In San Francisco, Dallas, and Houston, vacancy rates are as high as 25 percent. These figures understate the severity of the crisis because they only cover spaces that are no longer leased. Most office leases were signed before the pandemic and have yet to come up for renewal. Actual office use points to a further decrease in demand. Attendance in the 10 largest business districts is still below 50 percent of its pre-COVID level, as white-collar employees spend an estimated 28 percent of their workdays at home.

A new report from Moody’s offers yet another grim outlook that the commercial real estate downturn is nowhere near the bottom. Elevated interest rates and persistent remote and hybrid working trends could result in around 24% of all office towers standing vacant within the next two years. The office tower apocalypse will result in more depressed values that will only pressure landlords. 

“Combining these insights, with our more than 40 years of historic office performance data, as well as future employment projections, our model indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63- month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally,” Moody’s analysts Todd Metcalfe, Anthony Spinelli, and Thomas LaSalvia wrote in the report. 

In a separate report, Tom LaSalvia, Moody’s head of CRE economics, wrote that the office vacancy rate’s move from 19.8% in the first quarter of this year to the expected 24% by 2026 could reduce revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion. Factor in lower rents and higher costs, this may translate into “property value destruction” in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars. 

In addition to remote working trends, Moody’s analysts pointed out that the amount of office space per worker has been in a “general downward trend for decades.” 

At the peak of the Dot-Com boom, office workers used an average of 190 sq ft. The figure has since slid to 155 sq ft in 2023. 

“The argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses,” the analysts said, adding, “If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”

Related research from the McKinsey Global Institute forecasts that office property values will plummet by $800 billion to $1.3 trillion by the decade’s end. 

Moody’s expects vacancy rates to top out as office towers are demolished or converted to residential ones in the coming years. 

“Right-sizing will continue over the next decade as the market shakes out less efficient space for flexible floorplans that support our relatively new working habits,” they said. 

Earlier this year, Goldman analyst Jan Hatzius pointed out that a further 50% price decline would make office tower conversions financially sensible. 

Meanwhile, in March, Goldman’s Vinay Viswanathan penned that “office mortgages are living on borrowed time.” 

Office stress isn’t entirely done yet. The downturn is likely to persist through 2026. 

Wasting Away Again In Bidenville! US New Home Sales Crashed In May (Near 7% Mortgage Rates Aren’t Helping)

It seems everything Biden touches turns to stone. This used to be called “The Medusa Touch” but I changing that to “The Biden Touch.” And that includes housing. Or we can simply sing along with the late Jimmy Buffet and “Wasting aways again in Bidenville.”

And near 7% mortgage rates aren’t helping (as The Fed continues its fight against Bidenflation).

US new home sales were expected to dip 0.2% MoM in May… but they didn’t..

New home sales crashed 11.3% MoM (after April’s 4.7% drop was revised up to a 2.0% MoM rise). That is the biggest MoM drop since Sept 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest YoY drop since Feb 2023, taking the SAAR down to the same level as it was in 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Median new home price fell 0.9% YoY to $417,400 – lowest since April 2023 – (with the average selling price at $520,000) with a big downward revision for April from $433k to $417k!…

Source: Bloomberg

For the first time since June 2021, median existing home prices are above median new home prices…

Source: Bloomberg

As BofA warned yesterday:

The US housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon. After a surge in housing activity during the pandemic, it has since retreated and stabilized. We view the forces that have reduced affordability, created a lock-in effect for homeowners, and limited housing activity will remain in place through our forecast horizon “

At the same time, the supply of available homes increased to 481,000, still the highest since 2008.

Source: Bloomberg

New home sales are catching down to the reality of mortgage rates continuing to hold above 7%…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems homebuilders finally gave up filling that gap in anticipation of an imminent Fed rate-cut to save the world.

Will Biden double down on his failed policies tonight in the CNN Presidential debate? Perhaps Joe can sing “Double Shot of Bidenomics.”

Hey Big Spenders! 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists say Trump policies will fuel inflation (big spending gov’t +37.7%, US debt up 50% under Biden driving the economy, along with Federal Reserve)

Hey big spenders (Biden, Congress and the 16 Nobel prize winning economists).

June 25 (Reuters) – Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists signed a letter on Tuesday warning that the U.S. and world economy will suffer if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November.

The jointly signed letter, first reported by Axios, says the economic agenda of U.S. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, is “vastly superior” to Trump’s, the former Republican president seeking a second term.

Read the source article from Reuters for the rest of the Marxist clown show. What Joe Stiglitz and other Leftist economists are cheerleading in the excessive post Covid spending spree that Biden and Congress went on. There is a different between a free market system and government directed spending, usually on large donors.

One source of crippling inflation under Biden is (wasteful) government spending, up 37.7% under Biden. Federal debt is up a nauseating 50% under Biden. These levels of spending and debt are NOT sustainable!

Another souce of inflation under Biden has been The Federal Reserve. With Covid. The Fed entered like gangbusters dropping their target rate to 25 basis points and massively increasing their balance sheet. Call this BIDEN 1. Then to squelch inflation, The Fed raised their target rate and slowly started to unwind the balance sheet. We saw a slowing of inflation. Nothing to do with Biden, although I am sure he will take credit for it at Thursday’s debate with Trump.

Inflation was growing rapidly in Biden 1, but inflation started to slow (Biden 2) as The Fed rapidly raised their target rate.

Dallas After Midnight! “Poor National Leadership” As Stagflation ‘Erodes Business Confidence’

Dallas after midnight! Especially with a broken Congress and President.

Philly Fed Services jumped into expansion (to two year highs?), Chicago Fed National Activity Index surged, Case-Shiller home prices hit a new record high but appreciation slowed, Conference Board Expectations hovers near decade lows, Richmond Fed Manufacturing tumbled, Dallas Fed Services improved but remains in contraction

But, below the hood of the last one we see some more interesting dynamics evolving as revenues and employment decline while prices re-accelerate

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 25th straight month of contraction (sub-zero) for the Dallas Fed Services index and judging by the respondents’ comments, there is a clear place to point the finger of blame:

Poor national leadership and lack of confidence have eroded the business environment.

  • The Federal Reserve’s recent  announcement of no rate cuts in the near future is concerning regarding the  immediate and lag effect it could  have on the local economy. We have received  direct feedback from many of our clients in various industries, and they are  increasingly concerned. They are freezing hires and spending, with many  reducing spending. The primary reason is the economic stagnation locally and  nationally affecting their businesses.
  • People are adjusting to new economic realities. Few are expecting salary increases and are instead making lifestyle  adjustments to deal with higher living costs. Reality is also setting  in for the apartment owners we serve. They understand rents aren’t going up and  interest rates aren’t coming down. As rate caps expire and loans mature,  lenders are having to adapt as well. Ultimately, a lot of private equity (much  in the form of individual retirement savings put into syndications) is getting  wiped out.
  • We need a rate cut before we will  see any revenue improvement from home sales.
  • As elections draw near, the political environment worsens, creating more uncertainty in our business.
  • We feel inflation and fear of more inflation plus the rise in cost of living are holding consumers back. Hopefully we will adapt to the new realities soon.

Customers are concerned about the election, so they are holding off on large purchases.

  • The lack of building activity is  shutting down the appliance industry.
  • Affordability has become an ever-increasing problem for new car dealers. The price increases of new cars combined with  higher interest rates have put new cars out of reach for more and more people.
  • [Car] inventories continue to swell, and  interest rates remain high. Our grosses are off, and margins continue to  decline. Profits are down 20  percent from the prior year.
  • The economy is slowing. The consumer  is more cautious and more reluctant to purchase at higher prices and payments.

And finally, this seemed to sum up just how business-owners feel in general about the current occupant of The White House:

“Our outlook depends heavily on the presidential  election.

BIG Bubbles! National House Price Index Up 6.3% Year-over-Year in April Despite Mortgage Rates Up 147% Under Biden (San Diego Fast Growing At 10.3% YoY, Portlandia Slowest Growing)

This isn’t a tiny bubble!

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April (“April” is a 3-month average of February, March and April closing prices). The pace of appreciation has slowed from the previous month, reflecting the toll of 7% mortgage rates and low inventory.

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Break Previous Month’s All-Time High in April 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain for April, down from a 6.5% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 8.0%, down from an 8.3% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, dropping from a 7.5% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest annual gain among the 20 cities in April with a 10.3% increase this month, followed by New York and Chicago, with increases of 9.4% and 8.7%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank this month for the smallest year-over-year growth, with a 1.7% annual increase in April.

The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends decelerated from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 1.2%, 1.36% and 1.38%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite posted the same month-over-month increase of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively as last month, while the 20-City reported a monthly increase of 0.4%.

“For the second consecutive month, we’ve seen our National Index jump at least 1% over its previous all-time high,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “2024 is closely tracking the strong start observed last year, where March and April posted the largest rise seen prior to a slowdown in the summer and fall. Heading into summer, the market is at an all-time high, once again testing its resilience against the historically more active time of the year.

“Thirteen markets are currently at all-time highs and San Diego reigns supreme once again, topping annual returns for the last six months. The Northeast is the best performing market for the previous nine months, with New York rising 9.4% annually. Sustained outperformance of the Northeast market was last observed in 2011. For the decade that followed, the West and the South held the top posts for performance. It’s now been over a year since we’ve seen the top region come from the South or the West.

Of course, Fed Money Printing is helping drive home price growth. Perhaps too much!

Here is Jerome Powell, Chairman of The Fed Bubble Blowing Machine!!

Better Off Than 3 1/2 Years Ago? Home Prices Up 34% Under Biden (Rising Property Taxes And Home Insurance), Mortgage Rates Up 147%, Rent CPI Up 5.3%

In politics, it is usually discussed whether you are better off today than 4 years ago. Well, not if you are a renter or need to buy a home with mortgage financing.

If you are a homeowner, you are better off in terms of home equty. With the Case-Shiller National home price index up 34% since Biden’s selection as President. That is the good news.

The bad news? Property taxes are soaring and home insurance rates are up.

The worst news? The 30 year conforming mortgage rate is up 147% under Biden.

If you are a renter, you are worse off because of rising rents and the diffculty of transitioning to homeowership. Despite slowing, rental CPI is still growing at 5.3% YoY.

Surprise! US Economic Surprise Index Slumps To -28.10 (Lowest Since 2022)

Well, perhaps bot a genuine surprise. We are aware that the US economy has been slowing as the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus from Covid is wearing out.

The economics surprise index slumped to -28.10, the lowest since 2022.

I feel like the US economy is experiening a Ragnarok change. With the giants (World Economic Forum/UN. etc) winning.