CoreLogic: Home Prices Rise Record 18.1% In November (When Will Fed Take Its Foot Off The Pedal??)

Home price growth especially strong in Mountain West and Southeastern states
By November 2022, annual home price growth is predicted to slow to 2.8%

Yes, US home prices continue to rage with CoreLogic’s home price index rising 18.1% YoY.

Their forecast for 2022 is only 2.8% YoY likely due to forecast mortgage rate increases and fiscal stimulus wearing out.

Arizona, of course, is leading at 28.6% YoY. Florida is in second place followed by Idaho.

Slowdown? Let’s hope the slowdown doesn’t turn into a Matchbox and lead to declining home prices.

FOMO Housing Market: October Home Prices “Slow” To 19.08% YoY As Mortgage Rates Rise (Phoenix Fastest At 32.3% And Minneapolis And Chicago Slowest At 11.5%)

There is a lot going on in the US housing market. Excessive monetary stimulus keeping mortgage rates low, historically low inventory available for sale, and FOMO (fear of missing out … on rapidly rising home prices).

The Case-Shiller repeat sales index for October is out … and the national home price index “slowed” to 19.08% YoY as mortgage rates rose. Note that available inventory of homes for sales remains very low.

By metro area, Phoenix AZ once again leads with 32.3% YoY. Minneapolis MN is the slowest growing metro area in terms of home prices at 11.5% (tied with Chicago, IL).

A distant relative of Anthony Fauci.

Simply Unaffordable! Housing Has Gotten More Unaffordable Over Past Year (Addicted To Gov)

Housing in the US is getting “simply unaffordable.” And it has gotten far worse over the past year. Thanks to BAD government policies.

While wage growth is positive, inflation is sucking the life from consumers. REAL average hourly earnings growth is -2.0133%. Even worse, home prices are rising at a 14.12% pace in REAL terms. So, wages are losing to inflation and housing is pulling away from renters in terms of affordability.`

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So it is not surprising that the University of Michigan consumer survey for “Buying Conditions For Housing” remains below 100 (meaning that more people think buying conditions for housing are negative than positive). With the Case-Shiller National home price index growing at a 19.51% YoY pace, it is no wonder that consumers are getting scared of the housing market.

Yes, US inflation is at a 40-year high and the 30-year Treasury Inflation Protected (TIP) yields is at -0.424%. That says quite a bit about the pickle US consumers are in.

US consumer confidence overall has declined to the lowest level since just after the financial crisis and housing bubble burst of 2008-9.

Doctor, Doctor (Yellen), please don’t try to make housing more “affordable” which will result in housing being even LESS affordable.

But I do like how Biden took credit for lowering gasoline prices a little after his anti-energy policies drove up gasoline prices in the first place from $2.20 to $3.40 a gallon, a 55% price increase. Thanks for nothing, Joe!

And with Omicron raging (with few reported deaths), Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s top medical adviser, indicated support for making vaccinations a requirement for domestic fights.

More loss of personal freedom, more government control. We are truly addicted to gov.

US Existing Home Sales Rise In November While Median Price Rises 13.9% YoY Amidst Declining Inventory

While the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses a lame measure of house price inflation, US existing home sales MEDIAN PRICE YoY is growing at 13.9%.

US existing home sales rose by 6.46 million units SAAR, less than the expected 6.53 million units SAAR.

Where is the inventory increases that various talking heads were predicting would emerge? Maybe they meant SUBMERGE?

Here is a video of me looking for the increasing inventory.

Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Rises To 3.12%, REAL Mortgage Rate At -3.689% (REAL Home Price Growth At 14.12% While REAL Wage Growth At -1.94%)

The Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage commitment rate rose to 3.12%. But once we subtract the gut-wrenching inflation rate, the REAL 30-year mortgage rate is -3.689%.

The nominal Freddie Mac 30-year commitment rate rose to 3.12% which is still lower than 3.18% back on April 1, 2021 after surge in rates following Biden’s taking the office of Presidency in January.

Meanwhile, the REAL Case-Shiller National home price index (CS National YoY – CPI YoY) is growing at the fastest rate in history. Great if you already own a home, but lethal if you are renting and want to move to homeownership.

Meanwhile, REAL wage growth is at -1.94% YoY.

Well, Chairman Powell and The Gang failed to raise the Fed Funds Target Rate yet again, but let us know that they will tighten someday soon. The Fed Funds Futures are signalling a rate hike at the June 2022 meeting and another at the November meeting.

While The Fed couldn’t care less about the Taylor Rule, it is still interesting to note just how out of touch The Fed FOMC is with reality. The Taylor Rule indicates that their target rate should be 16.94% rather than the current target rate of 0.25%.

Keeping the target rate unchanged in the face of gut-wrenching inflation is a bold strategy, Cotton.

Let’s see if it pays off.

Lumber Prices UP 127% From Recent Low Helping Drive Up Housing Prices And Bubble (Evergrande Stock Falls To $1.60)

Lumber prices are above $1,000 for the first time since early summer as a hot housing market continues to drive demand.

According to Markets Insider, lumber prices are up 127% from its most recent low. With demand high and supplies low, record low interest rates still drive homeowners to the market, so much that builders are struggling to keep up.

Note the surge in lumber futures prices back in April and May 2021 that eased. But lumber futures prices are gaining steam again.

Let’s see what happens to lumber prices and new home prices if and when The Federal Reserve decides to takes its gargantuan foot off the monetary accelerator pedal.

In other housing-related news, China’s Evergrande remains in the news as its stock price founders.

Perhaps Evergrande should declare bankruptcy.

Psst! US Inflation Is REALLY >11% YoY (Not The Stated 6.9% YoY)

Earlier today I wrote about the horrible November Consumer Price Index (CPI) print of 6.9% YoY.

But that 6.9% YoY is very misleading because of the strange way the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the largest asset in most households’ expenditures: housing.

The BLS measures inflation in housing using the Shelter measurement. Which was only 3.88% YoY. The problem is that the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was 19.52% in its last reading. That is quite a discrepancy.

So, if we substitute the Case-Shiller National home price index for the CPI Shelter, we get an inflation rate of greater than 11%.

And with the Zillow Rent for all homes index growing at 11.2%, this feels more like we are being hit over the head with. Or like trying to eat raw oyster stew … when the oyster fight back.

Here is a video of The Federal Reserve and the Biden Administration trying to control inflation.

UMich Buying Conditions For Housing PLUNGES To 63 Due To Outrageous Home Price Growth & Lessons From The Yellen Pivot

Just look at this chart of the University of Michigan Buying Conditions For Houses index. It was positive (meaning above 100) until shortly after COVID struck and The Federal Reserve rode to the rescue. National home price growth was already at 4.57% YoY in March 2020, then ballooned to 19.51% YoY at the last reading.

Here is the same chart with the broader M2 Money stock and The Fed’s Balance sheet. Same results, just not as dramatic as M1.

We will soon find out if The Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike or taper news. They are likely to confirm tapering, particularly if they believe that tapering won’t roil markets. After all, then Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the FOMC decided to let the Fed’s balance sheet taper (white line) while, at the same time, increasing the Fed’s target rate (yellow line). The S&P 500 index rose 9.5% over the taper/rate increase period of 12/29/2017 to 8/30/2019.

But since Stimulypto (2/28/2020 to 11/30/2021), the Fed’s balance sheet doubled+ from $4,158,637 to $8,681,771. And The Fed Funds Target Rate (UB) immediately fell from 1.75% in February 2020 to 0.25% in March 2020 … and has stayed there ever since. The S&P 500 index rose 54.6% over this Stimulypto period.

But The Fed’s upcoming decision on December 15, 2021 may be a Yellen-pivot (taper balance sheet, but raise The Fed Funds Target rate). But, then again, maybe not. The Fed is getting really bad about forward guidance and choose instead to surprise us. Hence, this is why an a-political rule is preferred (such as the Taylor Rule).

Unfortunately, the Taylor Rule infers a Fed Funds Target rate of 15.50% (using CPI YoY running at 6.20% YoY. If The Fed raises their target rate by 25-50 basis points at the December 15th meeting, color me surprised.

So, the Powell Pivot may just be the Yellen Pivot after all.

S&P 500 REAL Earnings Yield At -2.33% While REAL Wage Growth At -1.43% (REAL 30Y Mortgage Rate At -3.11%) “Weird, Wacky Stuff!”

As Parks and Recreation’s Martin Housely said, “Weird, wacky stuff.”

We now have the S&P 500 REAL earnings yield at -2.33%.

REAL US average hourly wage growth is at -1.43% and the REAL 30-year mortgage rate is at -3.11%.

The cause of this weird and wacky economic stuff? How about the surge in M1 Money and The Fed Balance Sheet?

I can almost see Fed Chair Jerome Powell imitating Martin Housely and saying “Weird, wacky stuff” in his testimony before Congress.

Fed Talk,Talk! Mortgage Applications SURGE 56% WoW As Treasury Yields Tank (Purchase Apps Spike 28% WoW)

Despite the “Talk, Talk” from The Federal Reserve about balance sheet taper and rate “normalization,” we actually saw the 10-year Treasury yield fall from 1.6651% on 11/23/2021 to 1.343 on 12/3/2021. While the 30-year mortgage rate only fell from 3.31% to 3.3%, it is the SIGNAL that The Fed is sending that people should refinance their mortgages ASAP.

You can see the rise in mortgage refinancing applications of 56% week-over-week (WoW) (white line) with the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (blue line) despite the relatively small drop in the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) tiny drop in their 30-year mortgage rate index.

Ditto for the MBA mortgage purchase application index. The drop in the US Treasury yield (blue line) resulted in a 28% WoW increase in mortgage purchase applications.

Here is the table of MBA data for the week of 12/03.

Please note that the 10-year Treasury yield have jumped since 12/03 indicating that mortgage application activity for the week of 12/10 will be lower.