That’s Biden/Harrisnomics! Leading Economic Indicators Down For 29th Straight Month (Outside Of Great Financial Crisis, The Worst Decline In LEI Since Mid ’70s!!!)

That’s Biden/Harrisnomics!

US Leading Economic Indicators down for their 29th straight month – at a level worse than the trough of COVID lockdowns…

…and the head of The Conference Board says ‘nothing to see here’…

The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

For context, outside of the great financial crisis, this is the worst decline in LEI since the mid ’70s!!!

And what is behind the ‘no recession’ call… US equity strength!!

Thank The Feral Reserve for the equity spike!

So, to summarize – almost all the macro data signals weakening growth for years… but because stocks are up (and credit spreads down), there’s no recession anywhere on the horizon!!??

Too Much Debt? Harris Proposing $1.7 Trillion In Spending Despite The US Begin $35+ Trillion In Debt And $218+ Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities (National Assets Of $213 Trillion Less Than Unfunded Liabilities Of $218+ Trillion)

Too much debt? Kamala Harris doesn’t think so. She is proposing economic policies costing $1. 7 trillion without sufficicent offsets. Harris is putting the US on the path to default, following numerous other badly managed nations, like Ukraine and Greece. And much of Latin America.

The US is already at $35+ trillion with unfunded liabilties totalling $218+ trillion. Of course, the Biden Administration is attempting to cut Medicare for seniors and raise the price while handing out unlimited benefits to illegal immigrants.

In July, Ukraine avoided defaulting on $20 billion in loans by reaching a preliminary agreement with private creditors.

.Given the financial burden of war, the country suspended interest payments on international debt over the last two years, which was set to expire on August 1, 2024.

Without this new debt restructuring, this default would have ranked among the 10 largest in recent history. The last time Ukraine defaulted on its debt was in 2015, after Russia’s invasion of Crimea.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows the largest sovereign debt defaults since 1983, based on data from Moody’s via Aswath Damodaran.

The Top 10 Sovereign Debt Defaults

Below, we show the biggest sovereign debt defaults between 1983 and 2022:

Greece’s $264.2 billion default in 2012 stands as the largest overall, unfolding when the country was mired in recession for the fifth consecutive year.

The country defaulted again just nine months later, making it the fourth-largest ever. Leading up to the crash, Greece ran significant deficits despite being one of the fastest-growing countries in Europe. Furthermore, in 2009, the newly elected prime minister revealed that the country was $410 billion in debt—substantially more than previous estimates.

With the second-highest default recorded, Argentina failed to repay interest on $82.3 billion in foreign debt in 2001. Like Greece, it is a repeat offender, defaulting numerous times since independence in 1816. Today, Argentina is the largest debtor to the International Monetary Fund, despite being Latin America’s third-largest economy.

Following next in line is Russia’s 1998 default on $72.7 billion in loans, coinciding with a currency crisis that erased more than two-thirds of the ruble’s value in a matter of weeks. That year, several other countries including Venezuela, Pakistan, and Ukraine defaulted on their debts after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 spurred instability in global financial markets.

Just as 1998 saw a wave of defaults, 2020 was a year marked by major debt upheavals. Due to the pandemic and collapsing oil prices, it was a record year for sovereign defaults, reaching seven in total. Among these, Lebanon, Ecuador, and Argentina saw the largest defaults amid deepening fiscal pressures.

Harris is just another free-spending politician who will eventually lead the US into default. But at least Harris/Walz exude joy.

At least Harris/Walz haven’t adopted (stolen) the phrase “Work makes one free”. 

“It’s Communism”: Kamala’s First Economic Plan Proposes Price Controls To “Combat Inflation”

After the unoriginal Vice President Kamala Harris stole former President Trump’s proposed ‘no tax on tips’ policy, she’s at it again with yet another recycled idea. This time, she’s echoing President Biden’s actions and rhetoric to crack down on sky-high food prices by proposing the first-ever federal ban on “corporate price-gouging in the food and grocery industries”—a move that reeks of socialism.

“There’s a big difference between fair pricing in competitive markets, and excessive prices unrelated to the costs of doing business,” the Harris campaign wrote in a statement, adding, “Americans can see that difference in their grocery bills.”

The Harris campaign said the vice president will unveil the new federal proposed ban on Friday at a campaign rally in the battleground state of North Carolina as part of a broader economic policy platform. The proposal will ensure food companies can’t exploit consumers to increase profits, according to CBS News, citing Harris-Walz campaign officials.

Harris’ policy speech will also call on the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys to examine corporations violating price-fixing rules. Her remarks are expected to echo Biden’s actions and rhetoric, especially with his war against meat processing companies that he alleges are responsible for higher burger prices at the supermarket.

VP Harris’ campaign argues that lowering Americans’ costs is a function of socialist-style price controls. Yet this is the quickest way to understand that Harris’ economic team has no actual understanding of inflation.

Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni explained, “Here’s your “price gouging” narrative: average costs paid by businesses have risen just as much as costs charged to consumers – if businesses are being “greedy,” they’re doing it all wrong…” 

Instead of curbing out-of-control government spending, which debt rises $1 trillion every 100 days, and understanding that monetary inflation driven by the Federal Reserve’s money creation is the root cause of inflation, Harris deflects the actual problem: The Fed. She instead goes after big corporations for ‘illegal price gouging.’ 

Here’s a snippet of Money Metals Midweek Memo’s Mike Maharrey commenting on Harris’ proposed price-fixing ban on big food companies: 

The second “dumb” idea Maharrey discussed came from Vice President Kamala Harris, who was recently asked about her plan to combat inflation. Maharrey criticized her response, which he described as “word salad,” pointing out that she merely acknowledged the problem without offering any concrete solutions. Instead, she promised to take on “big corporations” engaging in “illegal price gouging,” corporate landlords, and big pharma.

Maharrey argued that Harris’s approach misses the root cause of inflation, which is monetary inflation driven by the Federal Reserve’s money creation. He cited the July budget deficit data, revealing that the Biden administration spent another $574 billion in just one month, running a $243 billion deficit. Maharrey emphasized that inflation is not caused by corporate greed but by the government’s excessive spending and borrowing.

“Price inflation is a symptom of monetary inflation, which has everything to do with money creation by the Federal Reserve,” Maharrey explained. He warned that Harris’s proposed policies, including price controls, would likely lead to shortages and exacerbate the problem rather than solve it.

Kamalanomics = ‘communist economics’ as some X users describe… 

“We are no longer talking about hypothetical communism, we are talking about two straight up communists who want to institute a federal price ban on food and a federal minimum wage that is going to make every corporation go out of business.

Voting for communism is not the solution to your precious feelings.”

Grocery stores have a 3-4% profit margin if they are lucky.

The Fed Money Printing And Stock Prices And Housing Prices (Why The Fed Must Keep On Printing!)

The Fed’s theme song: Keep on printing!

Look at this chart of the S&P 500 index against M2 Money stock.

And this chart of Case-Shiller home prices against M2 Money.

Bottom line? The Fed has to keep on printing money. Otherwise, the US economy will collapse like a cheap building.

Here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell creating assets bubbles.

What Is The Fed Doing? Mortgage Rates Up 102% Since 2022 As The Fed Still Has A Long Way To Go In Shedding Its $2.4 TRILLION MBS Holdings

What’s it going to be? Mortgage rate increases or balance sheet (MBS) reductions?

Since the Covid outbreak in early 2020, The Fed went wild with rate cuts and massive and unpredented balance sheet expansion.

Let’s look at The Fed’s puchase of agency MBS and mortgage rates. From 2020 2022, The Fed continued to buy agency MBS. But in 2022, all hell broke loose as The Fed went crazy RAISING rates, but slowly began unwinding their balance sheet. The result? Mortgage rates began to climb. In fact, the US conforming mortgage rate for 30 years has risen 102% since early 2022. The Fed is only slowing unwinding their MBS holdings.

Despite the struggles in the residential housing market, the COMMERCIAL mortgage market is a trainwreck.

What will The Fed do?? After all, nothing from nothing beats nothing.

US New Home Sales Fall In June As Homebuyer Confidence Crashes To Record Low (Biden/HarrisNomics or Cacklenomics)

From Zero Hedge.

After a disappointing dump in existing home sales in June, new home sales just confirmed the slowdown, dropping 0.6% MoM (notably below the 3.4% MoM expected) and also saw a major downward revision in May from -11.3% MoM to -14.9% MoM. That leaves new home sales down 7.4% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

That shift dragged the new home sales SAAR down to 617k – basically unchanged since 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

While the median new home price rose in June, it remains below the median existing home price…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears the homebuilder subsidy fad is wearing off as mortgage rates show no signs of easing significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, none of this should be a surprise as homebuyer confidence has collapsed to an all-time record low…

Source: Bloomberg

Will cutting rates help?

Probably not. Bidenomics is now called Harrisnomics (or Cacklenomics) since Harris as VP was the tiereaker in the US Senate. So, she holds some responsibility for the outrageous, wasteful spending in Washington DC.

Is The World Souring On US Treasuries And The Fed? Biden/Congress Out Of Control Spending Is A Disaster (UNFUNDED Entitlements Promised By Federal Government Larger Than Total National Assets!)

Here is a chart of Non-commerciak net positions for US Treasuries, currently showing more bailing out of Treasury positions. Has the world sours on DC’s fiscal train wreck and The Fed?

Of course, budget deficits are a disaster with Biden/Congress spending like drunken sailors in port and showing no signs of letting up. The good news? At least a court struck down Biden’s illegal cancelation of student debt (a desperate attempt to win votes). That would have spiked the budget deficit.

As I pointed out yesterday, the UNFUNDED entitlements promised by the Federal government are now larger than that total national assets (business, household). In other words, if the US liquidated ALL assets, they couldn’t pay off the UNFUNDED entitlements. And good luck taking away the entitlements!

Nothing From Nothing! Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Remains Negative At -4.8 YoY (US Unfunded Entitlements Now Exceed Total US National Assets!)

Nothing from nothing should be the slogan of Bidenomics.

Conference board’s leading economic indicators remains negative YoY at -4.8.

Worried? What if I told you that the promises of unfunded entitlements from the Federal government now exceeed the TOTAL national assets of the US??

Way to go, Joe! But he had plenty of help from Congress.

Something Stupid! Biden Proposes Rent Control Of 5% Annual Cap Rent Increases

President Biden was expected yesterday to propose a cap of 5% on annual rent increases for tenants of major apartment landlords, and he did. Whether it can happen is something else.

As the White House communicated on Tuesday, the administration is looking for Congress to pass legislation for landlords with more than 50 units in their portfolios, that being the proxy for institutional owners, although it would also affect private investors, family offices, and others that might own at least that many units. According to administration calculations, the total pool would cover 20 million rental units.

The law would then give landlords a choice. They could either restrict annual rent increases to no more than 5% a year or they would forfeit the ability to take fast depreciation of rental housing. There would be an exception for new construction or “substantial renovation or rehabilitation.”

So, Biden is dusting off the old Jane Fonda/Tom Hayden Santa Monica, CA rent control scheme.

I am guesing that this will not pass the House, but will probably pass in the Confederacy of Dunces: the US Senate.

Inflation Slows To 3.0%, But Shelter Still Rising At 5.2%, Electricity Up 4.4% (Core Prices Continue To Rise And Have Never Been Higher)

Are you ready? You can tell an election is on the radar since inflation numbers are settling down for the most part. According to the BLS, overall inflation fell slightly in June to 3.0%.

Shelter CPI is up 5.14% YoY as M2 Money growth has been rising slowly … again.

Core CPI also ‘missed’, rising just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.2% exp), dragging the YoY Core CPI down to +3.27% – its lowest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods deflation also dominates core prices disinflationary trend…

We do note that Core consumer prices have still not seen a single monthly decline since Bidenomics began.

Core consumer prices are up just under 18% since Bidenomics began (+4.9% per annum) – that is dramatically higher than the 2.0% per annum Americans experienced under Trump…

Core consumer prices have never been higher.

The much-watched SuperCore CPI rose on a MoM basis but declined (back below 5.0%) on a YoY basis (but obviously remains extremely elevated)…

Source: Bloomberg

Transportation Services are seeing prices fall…

Finally, we can’t help but get a sense of deja vu all over again here. What if… The Fed cuts (because bad – recession – data), Biden loses (because dementia), and inflation re-accelerates (just like in the 80s)…

Source: Bloomberg

Challenger job cuts in construction we the highest since 2008 putting downward pressure on wages.