US Jobs Surge! BIG Fed Policy Error Or Gov’t Election Manipiulation? (785,000 Gov’t Workers Added In September)

It turns out that Powell’s “emergency” 50bps rate cut was – drumroll – another major policy mistake by the Fed. Or it is Presidential election interference by The Biden/Harris Administration giving Cacklin’ Kamala as talking point?

Moments ago, the BLS reported that at a time when prevailing consensus was for jobs to continue their recent downward slide sparked by the near-record annual jobs revision and several months of downbeat jobs reports, in September the US unexpectedly added a whopping 254K jobs, the biggest monthly increase since March…

… and above the highest estimate (which as noted last night was from Jefferies at 220K). In fact, the number was a 4-sigma beat to the median estimate!

There’s more: unlike previous months where we saw repeat downward job revisions, the BLS said that both prior months were revised up, to wit: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.

Some context: as UBS notes, the moving six-month average on nonfarm payrolls is 167k. The estimate is that 150k is about consistent with a return of the economy to trend growth. Which means that inflation is about to come back with a vengeance, just as the Fed launches its easing cycle.

Remarkably, while payrolls jumped by the most in half a year, the number of employed people also surged, rising by a whopping 430K, also the biggest one-month jump since March.

It wasn’t just the payrolls, however, which came in far stronger than estimates: the unemployment rate also came in stronger than expected, and thanks to the jump in employed workers coupled with the decline in unemployed workers (from 7.115MM to 6.834MM), it dropped from 4.2% to 4.1% (and down from 4.3% two months ago which spared the entire recession panic).

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (3.7 percent) decreased in September. The jobless rates for adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (14.3 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (4.1 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

And here is the rub, because in a vacuum the super strong jobs numbers would have been fantastic, the only issue is that the September blowout comes as the Fed launches an easing cycle and as wages are once again rising as we have warned for the past 3 months. Indeed, in September, the average hourly earnings rose 0.4% sequentially, beating the estimate of 0.3%, while on an annual basis, wage growth was 4.0%, up from an upward revised 3.9% and beating the 3.8% estimate.

One note here: the average workweek for all employees edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in September, which means the hourly earnings increase is not “pure” but rather a function of denominator adjustments. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.0 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.7 hours.

What sector had the biggest growth? UNPRODUCTIVE government workers! A record 785,000 government workers were added in September, pushing total govt workers also to a new record high.

The Biden/Harris Administration has given away billions of dollars to foreign nations (like Ukraine) and illegal immigrants so far this year,

– $24,400,000,000 to Ukraine.

– $11,300,000,000 to Israel.

– $1,950,000,000 to Ethiopia.

– $1,600,000,000 to Jordan.

– $1,400,000,000 to Egypt.

– $1,100,000,000 to Afghanistan.

– $1,100,000,000 to Somalia.

– $1,000,000,000 to Yemen.

– $987,000,000 to Congo.

– $896,000,000 to Syria.

– $9,000 per illegal immigrant that has entered the U.S.

And claim that FEMA has no money left for Hurricane Helene victims who have received only $750 per person. So I have plenty of reasons to have no trust or confidence in the Biden/Harris Mal-administration.

Buying Conditions Under Harris Far Worse Than Under Trump (Great Under Trump, Dismal Under Harris)

The University of Michigan consumer survery is out and the results are startling.

Under Biden/Harris, buying conditions are far worse than under Trump/Pence.

In fact, buying conditions were extremely favorable (above 100) under Trump and dismal under Harris. Particularly for housing (where higher than normal mortgage rates and high housing prices made the “American Dream” the American Scream.

Biden/Harrisnomics At Work! US Existing Home Sales Fall To Near 14-Year Lows In August (Pending Home Sales AT All-time Low!)

More evidence of how destructive Biden/Harris economic policies have been.

The NAR data show existing home sales down 2.5 percent in August to a 3.86 million unit seasonally adjusted annual rate after a small upward revision to 3.96 million units in July.

US existing home sales fell in August to near 14-year lows. Pink box.

Meanwhile, pending home sales (red line) ARE at an all-time low.

On The Harris/Walz Price Control Scam: PPI (Prices Producers Paid) Soared MORE Than CPI (Prices Consumers Paid)

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have produced a destructive proposal to solve the inflation problem: price controls. Her biggest supporters like Elizabeth Warren and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown love the idea of meddling in the private sector,

But I would be symapatheic to their arguement if consumer prices soared more than producer prices. However, the truth is that prices paid by producers (PPI) SOARED far more than prices paid by consumers (CPI).

The cause? Federal goverment spending (green line) exploded with Covid. Harris/Walz are proposing massive spending under her administration hence there will be MORE inflation under Harris/Walz. So, the have to rely on flawed gimmics like price controls. Which will lead to shortage, food lines, rastioning, etc.

Market participants are expecting a 50 BPS cut tomorrow. From 5.50% to 4.913%.

This painting represents Washington DC where the deep state lingers in darkness.

Biden/Harris-illusionomcs! Pending Home Sales All-time Low While Consumer Spending Is Just Government Handouts

We’ll be fooled again by Harris/Walz??

The Biden/Harris illiusionomics was built on false hoods.

Look at pending home sales, now the LOWEST in history. The midwest led the decline in PHS at -7.8%.

Why? One reason is the illusion of a growing economy … that wasn’t growing organically. It was just Biden/Harris doling out trillions in handouts. Trillions of dollars in annual “consumer spending” is actually just government handouts being spent by people – it’s increased every month this year:

Highway To Hell! US Pending Home Sales Index Falls Below Pandemic Low (Now At Worst Ever Level)

Biden/Harrisnomics is the US ecoonomy’s highway to hell.

US pending home sales just fell to below pandemic lows and is officially the worst in history.

Way to go Biden/Harris. The economy distorters and killers. Welcome to NEW Venezuela!

American Peronism: Kamala’s Plan to Ruin America’s Economy (Harris Is America’s Evita [Eva Peron])

08/24/2024•Mises WireDaniel Lacalle

Price controls, higher taxes, government intervention, and subsidies paid for by printing a constantly devalued currency.

These are the essential pillars of “21st century socialism” and the radical left Peronism that obliterated Argentina. These are also the main elements of the economic plan presented by Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. Undoubtedly, this is the most radical socialist economic plan ever announced by the Democrats.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Harris’s proposals will cost $1.95 trillion over 10 years. However, it emphasizes that if certain measures become permanent, this figure could increase to $2.25 trillion.

The Harris campaign has stated that these costs will be offset by a classic excuse of socialism in any election: “higher taxes on corporations and high earners.” This is, obviously, ludicrous, because there is no revenue measure that will cover the already bloated $2 trillion annual deficit and an added $2 trillion. The mantra of “higher taxes for the rich” always means higher taxes and more inflation, a hidden tax, for you.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has already warned of the fiscal disaster of the United States, with an annual deficit of 6% of GDP. Despite not accounting for a recession and projecting record tax revenues from 2024 to 2034, the CBO predicts an explosion in the budget deficit from $1.9 trillion to $2.8 trillion by 2034, even before factoring in Harris’s new spending plan. This means that the adjusted deficit will rise above 6.9 percent of GDP by 2034, almost twice the average of 3.7 percent over the previous 50 years.

Following the Harris plan, the United States public debt will likely increase by $24 trillion in a decade. As I have explained, there is no set of revenue measures that can bring $2 trillion per year in additional tax receipts, and tax hikes will harm both investment and growth.

An economy that generates an annual deficit of 6 percent of GDP to achieve a mere 2 percent annual growth is already on a dangerous path, and Harris’ plan would make it even worse.

Kamala Harris promises to cut inflation by spending and printing more money, reducing competition, and attacking businesses. It has never worked and never will because it is upside-down economics. Welcome to the US “Peronism.”.

Imagine all those United States citizens who have escaped Latin American or European economies impoverished by interventionism to find a better opportunity in the United States only to find that the same policies will be implemented by Harris.

The narrative of price gouging and greedflation is simply false. In 2023, profit margins in the grocery industry hit the lowest level since 2019, at 1.6%, according to the IMF. Corporations, even if they were stupid and reckless, cannot make all prices rise constantly. Competition would eat away at their market share; newcomers would eliminate them, and aggregate prices would fall. Furthermore, stores and businesses cannot make aggregate prices soar, maintain the increase, and consolidate it, which is the measure of inflation (CPI) we read every month. The only thing that can make all prices rise and continue increasing at a slower pace is printing money and eroding the purchasing power of the currency.

The only thing that can make aggregate prices rise constantly is the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency, which comes from massive government spending and printing currency to disguise fiscal imbalances.

Kamala Harris and her team know that their spending plan will make the national debt soar and that price controls do not reduce prices. In fact, these should not be called “price controls” but “limits to competition.” If corporations were the cause of inflation and price controls were the solution, Peronist Argentina would have enjoyed the lowest inflation in the world in the past decades.

Harris’ proposals to forgive debt are profoundly anti-social. They do not forgive any debt; they just add it to the national debt and make you pay for it. This enormous increase in public debt will be a burden for every American, particularly the poorest, with persistent inflation and lower real wages. US citizens have already endured negative real wage growth since January 2021, when Biden took office, according to the Federal reserve of St Louis. Expect worse.

Why does Harris promote the same policies that have failed everywhere? Promising free stuff and blaming others for the negative consequences is the defining strategy of socialist politicians.

Are you surprised to see how Germany, France, and other historically rich nations slump into stagnation, high debt, persistent inflation, enormous taxes, and the destruction of the middle class? Those policies are what Harris is promising. Who benefits? The vast government and its surrounding corporations reap the benefits.

Many people hold the belief that a nation cannot be considered socialist if it contains private companies. It makes no sense. State control does not limit itself to capital ownership but also to the imposition of increasingly restrictive laws, regulations, and confiscatory taxes. In fact, the government likes to absorb most of the wealth created by the private sector without the inconvenience of managing the businesses. Huerta de Soto defines socialism as “any system of institutional, methodical aggression against the free exercise of entrepreneurship” and that is precisely what Harris promises.

Higher taxes and more debt.

The government will print money to provide subsidies in a currency that is constantly losing value. It will blame stores and businesses for inflation. Interventionist policies will continue to erode the private sector. And they will repeat.

The makers of these policies are aware that they will negatively impact the economy, yet they will also engender a substantial number of enslaved citizens who rely on the government and must abide by its decisions. Voters see an alleged tsunami of free money but ignore the fact that they will pay for it through higher inflation, lower real wages, and diminishing opportunities for small businesses and families.

Yes, under Obama/Biden, then Biden/Harris,

The Harris team believes deficits do not matter and that the Federal Reserve can always disguise any budget imbalance. However, cracks have already appeared. Persistent inflation is the consequence of years of excessive spending and monetization. The next step is the risk of losing the US dollar as the world reserve currency when the world stops accepting the ever-increasing debt.

Under Obama/Biden and Biden/Harris, we have seen massive money printing and devaluation of the US Dollar. Trump/Pence too, but they were nailed with Covid. And the Democrat shut down off schools and local economies.

But all Harris (America’s Eva Peron) wants to do is dance. And not answer serious questions.

Streets Of Baltimore: Office Tower Sold For $4 Million ($12 Per Square Foot)

The Streets of Baltimore. I don’t think Gram Parsons would like the streets of Baltimore anymore.

A 345k SF office tower in Baltimore sold for $4M That’s a shocking $12 per square foot.

That’s cash on the barrelhead. Unless some poor lender is willing to take a bath on CRE in major metro areas like crime-ridden Baltimore.

Downtown? Office Values In US Metro Areas Have Crashed 52% From Highs (Zombie Towers In Large Cities Creating Drag)

Downtown? I know a place where the crime and congestion isn’t so bad, the suburbs.

Commercial real estate market challenges are more severe for older office towers in downtown metro areas than those outside city centers. The mismatch between funding needs and available credit in a high-interest-rate environment has also intensified the strain on building owners, as elevated tower vacancy rates persist across many markets due to the ongoing trend of remote work becoming the norm. 

Aging business districts from Los Angeles to Chicago to Boston of zombie towers with high vacancy rates that have no use in today’s economy. 

Big landlords, including Brookfield, Blackstone, and Starwood Capital Group, have walked away from older downtown towers in recent quarters.

The latest data from MSCI shows office values in metro areas have crashed 52% from their highs. Some of the worst declines have occurred in San Francisco, Manhattan, Washington, and Boston.

Source: Bloomberg

Between 2019 and 2023, about $557 billion of value evaporated from US offices due to a multi-year slide in demand, with older towers quickly falling out of favor with companies, according to an estimate by economists at Columbia and New York universities. CBRE Group noted that only 2% of towers in the US are considered top-tier, with rents 84% higher than the rest of the market. 

Data from brokerage Savills shows office rents in business districts have grown slower than rents for similar buildings outside metro areas. 

Source: Bloomberg

The move to new towers highlights how, for decades, the bubbles in legacy downtown districts, fueling economies, have ended for now, and older towers will have to be torn down.

To be very frank. It’s a crisis. Democrats running the crime-ridden metro area are delusional and blinded by their woke religion as the city’s population recently crashed to a 100-year low, and violent crime remains a major issue.

We’ve had conversations with multiple folks at wealth management and investment banking firm Stifel Financial about the latest shift of operations outside the dying business district to a new tower in a much safer and newer district. At first, Stifel contemplated leaving the city for the suburbs because far-left Democrats in City Hall could not enforce law and order.

CRE foreclosures are on the rise.

Don’t forget about Soros-funded district attorneys not enforcing the law in large cities. Expect more of the same if Harris/Walz win the election.

Big Bubbles! US Home Prices Up 6.47% YoY, Hit All-time High As Fed Keeps Foot On Monetary Gas Pedal

Big bubbles! US home pricest hit an all-time high as The Fed keeps its foot on the monetary gas pedal following the Covid economic shutdown in 2020.

Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 16th straight month in June (according to the latest data from S&P CoreLogic – Case Shiller – data today), up 0.42% MoM (hotter than expected and accelerating from May). On a YoY basis, prices rose 6.47%, but notably that is the third straight monthly slowdown in the pace of price appreciation…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, US home prices reached a new record high in June (as median new home prices continued to tread water)…

Source: Bloomberg

Home prices continue to track Fed Reserves closely, but a turning point may come soon…

Source: Bloomberg

Given the smoothing and heavy lag in the Case-Shiller data, it’s hard to find a causal relationship between prices and mortgage rates…

Source: Bloomberg

But, with prices reaccelerating and mortgage rates already back below 7.00% – in anticipation of The Fed – WTF does Powell think is going to happen when he actually starts cutting with prices at these record highs.

The Freddie Mac HP index shows the variation in home price growth. New Jersey coastal towns of Atlantic City and Ocean City grew at 10% YoY while Lake Charles LA declined by -2% YoY.