Confidence! It’s what consumers DON’T have under Bidenomics.
For the fourth straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower. In fact January’s was the biggest downward revision since Feb 2022. And Conference Board Consumer Confidence was DOWN to -3.90 in January, the worst since Feb 2022.
It really isn’t surprising the consumer confidence stinks. Food prices (CPI) are UP 21% under Vacation Joe Biden. Diesel fuel prices are UP 90% under Listless Joe.
Well, Biden’s appearance on (unfunny) Seth Myer’s Late Night Show certainly didn’t make me feel more confident about America’s future.
The Case-Shiller National home price index rose in December by 5.54% year-over-year (YoY) while average weekly earnings has remained lower that home price growth since September 2023 (pink box) and from August 2020 to December 2023.
Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 11th straight month in December (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up 0.21% MoM (in line with the 0.20% MoM expected and 0.24% prior).
San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in December, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase. Portland showed a 0.3% increase this month, holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth.
Given the current level of home prices, here is a picture of the average down payment for a house by state. Florida and Washington DC lead the nation followed by Washington state and California.
The Fed’s love potion #9: Printing endless supplies of money. But it still isn’t creating a large enough growth in new homes. The Fed’s money printing has helped drive housing prices up 32.7% under Biden, making housing unaffordable for millions of households.
After December’s 8.0% surprise jump was revised down to +7.2% MoM, January sales rose just 1.5% MoM (half the 3.0% expected). In fact all three of the last months’ data was revised lower…
The downward revision and disappointment reduced the YoY sales growth to just 1.8%…
The total new home sales SAAR rose from a downwardly revised 651k to 661k in January (well below the 684k expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
The median sales price of a home decreased to $420,700 in January from a year ago, marking the fifth-straight decline (up marginally from the $413,000 in December which was two year low).
Interestingly, the average price (NSA) soared from $493.4k to $534.3k)… which signals more higher-priced homes selling…
Source: Bloomberg
Mortgage rates are back on the rise, not exactly a good sign for new home sales as homebuilders margins collapse…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, new-home supply increased to 456,000 from the prior month, the most in over a year.
Source: Bloomberg
Is reality about to set in for the US housing market? Or will Powell step in (with a banking crisis excuse) to save all that ‘wealth’?
…
Source: Bloomberg
The total new home sales SAAR rose from a downwardly revised 651k to 661k in January (well below the 684k expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
The median sales price of a home decreased to $420,700 in January from a year ago, marking the fifth-straight decline (up marginally from the $413,000 in December which was two year low).
Interestingly, the average price (NSA) soared from $493.4k to $534.3k)… which signals more higher-priced homes selling…
Source: Bloomberg
Mortgage rates are back on the rise, not exactly a good sign for new home sales as homebuilders margins collapse…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, new-home supply increased to 456,000 from the prior month, the most in over a year.
Source: Bloomberg
Is reality about to set in for the US housing market? Or will Powell step in (with a banking crisis excuse) to save all that ‘wealth’?
Of course, mortgage rates rising 149% under Biden might have something to do with it.
Although the Attom data is from Q3 2023, not much has changed. Under Biden (and his HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, Fed Chair Jay Powell, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen), I did manage to find TWO AFFORDABLE areas to live: Shreveport Louisiana and Midland/Odessa Texas. The housing market remains unaffordable for millions of Americans.
I am not surprised given that the Case-Shiller National home price index has risen by 32.7% under Biden while mortgage rates are up … 149%.
Robin Hood is a legendary heroic outlaw originally depicted in English folklore and subsequently featured in literature, theatre, and cinema. Traditionally depicted dressed in Lincoln green, he is said to have stolen from the rich to give to the poor. Politicians have created the new “Forgotten Man” by Amity Shlaes.
However, politicians like Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell are “reverse Robin Hoods” dressed in business suits (although Jamie Raskin D-MD is often seen wearing a bandana and John Fetterman D-PA is often seen in a hoodie and shorts). They instead enact policies that steal from the middle class and give to themselves and the donor class. How do you think that politicians like the Bidens, Obama, Clintons and AOC go in broke and emerge as multi-millionaires?
Part of the problem with the reverse Robin Hood model is the Federal Reserve itself. They helped punish the 99% with inflation due to excessive money printing. The share of total net worth held by the top 1% has exploded since The Fed’s rate cuts following the 2001 recession. The Fed has never lowered rates since to levels we saw prior to the 2001 recession, although The Fed is getting close.
Then we have the green energy hysteria (which like pornography excites the brain and distorts logical thinking). Wealthy donors have received a massive windfall (along with China) from Biden/Congress’s green energy spending (scam). The middle class and low-wage workers are now playing higher utility bills (sacrificial lambs on the altar of global warming … or cooling) along with seeing gasoline and diesel prices far higher than before Biden was elected. Gasoline prices are up 46.25% under Biden and diesel prices are up 55.6%.
I like this chart of the distribution of household wealth by income group. The top 1% (the elite Pelosi class, are getting wealthier and wealthier. The 90-99% group are doing well, but not as well as the top 1%. The bottom 50% (who the Washington DC elite class seems to have forgotten about)
Here is a table of the same data.
Then we have the exploding mortgage rates under Biden. Rates are up over 155% under Old Grandad Joe Biden. Another shot through the heart of the middle class. And Washington DC is to blame.
Speaking of Washington DC millionaire elites, I want to share this picture with you. Hillary Clinton is NOT Robin Hood but an example of a REVERSE Robin Hood.
Cars and light trucks are seeing declining YoY sales in January (-0.7%) as M2 Money growth remains negative.
Automotive News was the first to report Ford Motor Co. halted shipments of all 2024 F-150 Lightning electric pickup trucks for an undisclosed quality control issue just weeks after slashing production volumes for the EV model due to sliding demand.
“We expect to ramp up shipments in the coming weeks as we complete thorough launch quality checks to ensure these new F-150s meet our high standards and delight customers,” company spokeswoman Emma Bergg wrote in a statement.
Last month, Ford announced plans to slash the Lightning production in April “to achieve the optimal balance of production, sales growth and profitability.”
The automaker (and many others, like Mercedes Benz) is recalibrating its electric vehicle strategy as the Biden administration plans to downshift the EV transition as demand plummets.
Thousands of auto dealers nationwide recently warned the ‘climate change warriors’ in the White House: the 2030 EV push is backfiring.
“Currently, there are many excellent battery electric vehicles available for consumers to purchase. These vehicles are ideal for many people, and we believe their appeal will grow over time. The reality, however, is that electric vehicle demand today is not keeping up with the large influx of BEVs arriving at our dealerships prompted by the current regulations. BEVs are stacking up on our lots,” the dealers said.
They warned: “Already, electric vehicles are stacking up on our lots which is our best indicator of customer demand in the marketplace.”
“Key takeaways thus far from earnings season are that the EV slowdown is not showing any evidence of an inflection, Level 4 autonomy headwinds continue to persist, and fears over supplier inventory overbuild are likely overblown.
The Hollies said it best: Stop, stop, stop. FIAT Money Printing that is.
Typically, we look at M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2) as a measure of how much the economy grows by expanding the money supply.
M2 Money Velocity is currently at 1.344, and still below where we were under Trump prior to Covid. After Powell printing palooza after Covid, M2 Money Velocity collapsed and is slowly rising, but remains low by historic standards.
Perhaps a more interest velocity is DEBT velocity (GDP/DEBT). Under Biden’s Reign of Error, Federal debt has increased by $6,539,359 million while real GDP has increased by only $1,948.731 billion (or roughly $2 trillion in GDP growth after $6.54 trillion in debt). Or a DEBT velocity of 0.3. Yikes! No wonder China is bailing on US debt!
This chart makes debt issuance look better than it really is. Again, the DEBT VELOCITY of 0.3 is terrible meaning that for every $1 of Federal debt, we get 30 cents in Real GDP under Biden. One of my macroeconomics textbooks stated that debt growth is fine as long as real GDP growth rises faster than debt growth. Apparently, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen didn’t read that textbook! Real GDP has grown by 9.43% under Biden while Federal debt has grown by … gulp .. 24%.
Yes, the US is borrowing like the proverbial drunken sailor while they “invest” in green energy, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and massive social welfare programs (like the old breads and circuses from the dying Roman Empire). When watching the media’s obsession with Taylor Swift and Chief’s Tight End Travis Kelce at The Super Bowl, it reminded me of “Breads and Circuses” as our nation is collapsing like a dying star. (That is why I Iike Gold, Silver and Bitcoin!)
What about The Federal Reserve? It was created in 1913 after signed into existence by President Woodrow Wilson. Since The Fed’s inception, consumer purchasing power has declined by 97%.
And under Biden, inflation has been so bad that consumer purchasing power is down 16%.
In summary, The Federal Reserve has been printing like crazy (I would say Batshit Crazy, but I actually think bats are adorable). And Treasury (under former Fed Chair Janet Yellen) has been borrowing like crazy too. While politicians claim the economy is in great shape, it is really because The Fed is printing wildly, Yellen is borrowing wildly, and much of US GDP is not due to the private sector, but Federal government spending … to the donor class. This is NOT a sustainable and will eventually crash into a ravine.
So, despite recent declines in energy prices, gasoline prices are still up 46.25% under “Green Joe” and the all important for shipping, diesel prices, are still up 55.6% under Brainless Joe.
One would think that massive rises in gasoline and diesel prices would make everyone buy an electric vehicle (EV). But alas, the high cost and unreliability of EVs is turning off consumers. (I own a hybrid and wish I didn’t).
This time it deals with supply chain logistics, with Bloomberg reporting this week that in the year and a half since passing the Inflation Reduction Act, automakers are finding out the hard way that the rigorous criteria for manufacturing batteries using materials from the United States and its free-trade allies could render them cost-inefficient compared to global competitors.
Companies like Tesla are instead taking advantage of a temporary shift in the rules to stock up with cheaper batteries from countries like China.
The Biden administration’s new rules will all but cut out China from the supply chain, however, which will make it tougher to find affordable metal suppliers.
This, in turn, will threaten President Biden’s goal to boost the domestic electric vehicle market. Bloomberg writes that mining companies and labor unions insist that without curtailing the influx of cheaper, Chinese-subsidized materials, the U.S. can’t develop a competitive EV market.
Meanwhile, the higher costs are driving automakers away from EVs. And as battery material requirements are set to double by 2027, fulfilling these mandates will be increasingly difficult, putting Biden’s ambitious EV strategy at risk.
The demand side of the equation also looks less than favorable. We wrote just hours ago about how Ford was slashing prices on its Mach E and Lightning 150. Tesla has been slashing prices to stoke demand for nearly a year now.
Both Ford and GM have said they’re going to curtail their investment in EVs. General Motors, who posted better than expected earnings earlier this month, said that it plans on changing its product lineup to include more hybrid vehicles, drifting away from pure electric vehicles.
CEO Mary Barra said on the earnings call: “Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035, but, in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environment or environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build this charging infrastructure.”
Recall, a report from Consumer Reports last year found that electric vehicles have almost 80% more problems and are “generally less reliable” than conventional internal combustion engine cars.
But hey, what good is a “free” market if the government doesn’t have complete and total control of consumer choice, right Joe? After all, Biden drives a gas guzzling Chevy Corvette. When Biden sells his Corvette and buys a Chevy Bolt, I might believe him. Nah!
So, the free market is standing up to Biden’s hard left tyranny.
My new nickname for Biden is Dopey. And Kamala Harris is Happy (because she laughs constantly). Mayorkas is Bashful (he doesn’t do anything). NY Senator Chuck Schumer is Grumpy. Jill Biden is Doc (for her pathetic PhD in Education). The intellectual seven dwarves are running our country into the ground.
I remember the joke made by Jay Leno about Obama. Go to a McDonalds and order whatever you want and give the bill to the person behind you. Unfortunately, that is the Democrat playbook under Obama/Biden (hereafter termed “O’Biden”). For example, Biden is bragging about forgiving student loan debt relief in the amount of $1.2 Billion in student debt for roughly 153,000 borrowers. And bragging that he is ignoring the US Supreme Court like a banana republic dictator. Like the Jay Leno “joke,” SOMEONE has to pay for this election year vote pandering. But that is the beauty/tragedy of BIG government. It is so big and the numbers so monstrous that many kind of shrug and go “eh.” But someone pays and its the middle class in the form of taxes and inflation.
Who is going to pay for the 10 million illegal immigrants that have crossed the southern border under Biden? While Paul Krugman points to a higher GDP from immigration (illegals still buy goods and services), but mostly are a deadweight drag on social services such as welfare, Medicare, schools, healthcare system, etc.). And of course migrant crime is going off the charts. Who pays for Biden’s border fiasco? The middle class and low wage workers, of course. Elites benefit from uncontrolled immigration, generally live in compounds with private security that the rest of us can’t afford. Remember President Carter and the Cuban Mariel boat lift where Fidel Castro emptied his prisons and sent them to Florida creating absolute mayhem and a huge spike in crime? Biden and Cuba Pete Mayorkas turning up the heat on immigration and its accompanied crime wave.
O’Biden loves to spend other people’s money. Aka, OUR money. Case in point. According to the CBO, net interest on the exploding Federal debt under O’Biden now exceeds our defense spending and that gap is expected to explode. To be sure, the US is funding billions in the middle east, handing over billions to Zelensky and Ukrainian oligarchs, and we have China. What a mess!
So, when will “Billions Biden” stop spending other people’s money? Well, only a barely-held Republican House can stop Biden. Meanwhile I will focus on soaring food prices and eat cheap cabbage rolls and drink coffee. Until Biden kills off those pleasures.
But don’t worry! We might get Gavin Newsom, the ultimate used car salesman, to replace Biden against Trump. But Biden’s ego is so massive (why I have no idea) that he won’t go down without a fight. And what about Cacklin’ Kamala?
US existing home sales disappointed in January jumping 3.1% MoM (vs +4.9% MoM exp). Quite a different picture from the non-seasonally-adjusted rise of just 0.3%…
Source: Bloomberg
This January rise dragged the YoY decline up to just -1.7%…
Source: Bloomberg
“While home sales remain sizably lower than a couple of years ago, January’s monthly gain is the start of more supply and demand,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
The median home price reached an all-time high for the month of January…
“Multiple offers are common on mid-priced homes, and many homes were still sold within a month. The elevated share of cash deals – 32% – indicated a market full of multiple offers and propelled by record-high housing wealth,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Additionally, properties typically remained on the market for 37 days in January, up from 29 days in December and 33 days in January 2023.
So who’s buying homes?
Well, you know the answer to that – even more institutional buyers as first-time homebuyers priced out
First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in January, down from 29% in December and 31% in January 2023.
All-cash sales accounted for 32% of transactions in January, up from 29% in both December and one year ago.
As a reminder, mortgage rates started off the year below 7% and have risen since…
Source: Bloomberg
So don’t expect this renaissance to continue.
And with mortgage rates hitting 7% … again. And rates are up over 155% under Biden.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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