Slowing! Mortgage Purchase Applications DOWN 12% YoY (Mortgage REFI Applications DOWN 50% YoY)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their weekly mortgage application survey this morning. Mortgage applications decreased 8.1 percent from one week earlier, for the week ending February 4, 2022.

The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 52 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

And mortgage refinancing applications are down 50% since the same week last week.

Here are the stats. Pretty much down across the board.

Given a slowing mortgage market, I designate The Office’s Kevin Malone as the face of the market with rising interest rates.

Treasury Curve Flattens as Inflation Risk Stokes Hike Bets (Schrute Bucks As A Hedge Against Inflation?)

The US Treasury yield curve has flattened to almost pre-Covid levels, signalling fear of inflation. And given our bottlenecked economy that The Fed and Federal government seem not to understand (or care), the flattening signals a wild ride ahead.

The Treasury yield curve flattened sharply Monday as surging energy prices stoked inflation fears and added fuel to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to lift policy rates as soon as next year.

The gap between 5- and 30-year yields shrunk to as little as 84.5 basis points, raising concerns over it potentially signaling a growth slowdown, before rebounding to about 88 basis points. The low Monday put the spread at its least since April 2020, a time when pandemic fears brought the global economy to a near shutdown. Five-year yields are up 4 basis points to around 1.168%, while the 30-year bond yield was down around 1 basis point at 2.03% at 12:36 p.m. New York time.

Instead of cryptocurrencies, we might be better off with Schrute Bucks as a hedge against inflation.