The Wreck Of The US Middle Class: America’s Paychecks Bigger Than 40 Years Ago, But Purchasing Power About The Same (Credit Card Delinquencies Highest Since 1991)

Under Bidenomics and Fed monetary “policies”, we now have the wreck of the US middle class.

To begin with, America’s paychecks are bigger than 40 years ago, but purchasing power of those larger paychecks is about the sames as it was 40 years ago. Great job Washington DC!!! … NOT!!!!

Meanwhile, credit card delinquencies are at the highest level since 1991.

Americans are feeling extreme financial stress.

Coping with Bidennomics and The Fed has been most difficult. Especially if you listened to Biden’s D-Day speech (almost stolen word-for-word from a Ronald Reagan speech).

Demented Joe Biden being led by the hand by his money-grubbing wife. “Joe, you will be here soon!”

Going Down! Economic Surprise Index Slumps In Election Year To Lowest Under Bidenomics (Economic Confidence Has Been TERRIBLE Under Biden)

The US economy is going down.

2024 hasn’t been a good year for Bidenomics. The Economic Surprise Index is falling to its lowest point in years.

The economic confidence index has been terrible since Covid and Biden’s Reign of Ecoomic Error.

We need to give Biden the hook!’

And I don’t want The Lizard Queen either.

Boom, Boom! ATL Fed Nowcast Plunges To 1.8% As Consumer Spending Estimate Collapses (Real Estate Construction Spending Leads Collapse In GDP)

Boom boom!

ATL Fed Nowcast plunges to 1.8% as their consumer spending estimate collapses – less than 3 weeks ago, they were forecasting 4.2% growth for Q2; a recession likely began in April.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.8 percent on June 3, down from 2.7 percent on May 31. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts for annualized second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth declined from 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent.

fff

Since I used The Animal’s version of the John Lee Hooker great tune “Boom Boom,” I will use another Animals tune for Joe Biden’s penchant for sniffing little girls. “Baby Let Me Take You Home.”

The Animals band. Not to be confused with the animals in the Biden Administration and Congress.

Job openings in April 2024 dipped to 8,059. Notice the trend (orange line) is below the trend set prior to Covid (red line).

Krugman’s Grossly Misleading Inflation Victory Declaration … BUT Purchasing Power Of US Dollar Is Down -16.5% Under Biden (Food Prices UP 21%, Home Prices UP 34%, Used Car/Truck Prices UP 17.7%)

Call it Washington DC soullessness.

Back in 2023, Socialist Paul Krugman declared that “the war on inflation is over!!! “We” won, at very little cost.” I love when elitists claim “We won!” since clearly 99% of Americans lost since food, housing and car prices up are double digits under Biden.

The problem is that food, energy, shelter, and used cars/trucks are a huge part of Americans consumption basket.

Under Biden, food CPI is up 23%. Home prices are up 34% and used cars/truck prices are up 17.7%.

A note to Paul Krugman, YOU may have won, but the rest of Americans lost. Consumer purchasing power of the US Dollar is DOWN 16.5% Under Biden.

Here is where we stand under Bidenomics.

Ask Joe if he cares.

Chicago PMI Screams RECESSION! Falls To Cycle Low Of 35.4, Back To 2008 Recession Levels (Copper Prices Rising!)

Not so Sweet Home Chicago!

After unexpectedly slumping last month to 37.9, the Chicago PMI index cratered even more unexpectedly in May, when it defied hopes of a rebound to 41.5, and instead tumbled even more, sliding to a cycle low of 35.4 which was not only below the lowest estimate, but was staggeringly low. To get a sense of just how low, the last two times it printed here was during the peak of the covid and global financial crises…

… which seems to suggest that at least according to Chicago-based purchasing managers, the economy is in a depression.

This is how the final number looked relative to expectations.

Looking at the report we find the following:

Business barometer fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Supplier deliveries fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

Did nothing rise? One thing did:

Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

So we have not just a depression, but a stagflationary depression in which everything else is going to hell, except prices: they keep on rising.

And while it is unclear what has prompted this unprecedented bearishness (the surely negative contribution from Boeing is likely to blame for a substantial portion of the apocalyptic outlook), one thing is certain: Goldman will have to come up with even more goalseeked surveys that explain away reality and tell us how purchasing managers really should feel…

On the good news front, REAL Gross Domester Income rose to 1.5%.

As copper prices keep on rising. Which is bad news for Biden’s shift to EVs! (Once again, Biden is driven around in gas guzzling Chevy Tahoes/Suburbans and owns a Chevy Corvette). There isn’t enough copper production to build the EVs that Biden wants.

Biden drove his Chevy to the STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE and the reserve was dry. And them good old Democrats were drinkin’ whiskey and rye after a New York Jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, despite there not being any laws broken.

I have testified and sat through many trials in New York city and have never seen a court case quite like the one the Trump lost with the Judge effectively telling the jury to find Trump guilty.

US Pending Home Sales Plunge To Record Lows In April As Rates Rose (After Terrible Mortgage Report)

With the terrible mortgage applications index from Wednedsay, we are seeing US pending home sales crashiing. As Joe Biden handles the economy his way.

After an unexpected jump in March, pending home sales were expected to drop 1.0% MoM in April as mortgage rates pushed back above 7.00% and stayed there.

Well, the analysts had the direction right but magnitude was way off as pending home sales plunged 7.7% MoM – the biggest drop since Feb 2021 (and below the lowest estimate), leaving sales down 0.7% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 29th straight month of YoY declines for non-seasonally-adjusted pending home sales.

This MoM decline pushed the Pending Home Sales Index back to record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The Midwest saw the biggest drop in pending sales, down 9.5% in April, followed by declines of 8.5% and 7.6% in the West and South, respectively. Contract signings in the Northeast fell 3.5%.

“The impact of escalating interest rates throughout April dampened home buying, even with more inventory in the market,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“But the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut later this year should lead to better conditions, with improved affordability and more supply.”

All driven by affordability crisis as mortgage rates surged back above 7.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

“The prospect of measurable home price declines appears minimal,” Yun said.

“The few markets experiencing price declines will be viewed as second-chance opportunities for buyers to enter the market if those regions continue to add jobs.”

As a reminder, the pending-sales report tends to be a leading indicator of sales of previously owned homes, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Is The Thrill Gone From Mortgages? US Mortgage Puchase Demand Falls 3% From Previous Week, Down 10% From Last Year, Down 40% Under Biden (Refi Demand Down -15% Since Last Week)

The thrill is gone …from the US mortgage market.

Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 24, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6.3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent lower than the same week one year ago. And -40% under Biden.

The Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from the previous week and was 12 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

It is still an unfavorable time to buy a home!

From the film “Ronin” that sums up actor Robert DeNiro in one sentence.

Spence (Sean Bean): “You know, you think too hard.”
Sam (Robert DeNiro): “Nobody ever told me that before.”

How would DeNiro consider the 40% drop in mortgage purchase demand under Biden?

Economic Surprise Index Falls To -0.126 As Buying Conditions For Housing Remains Negative For Most Of Biden’s Presidency (US Debt Servicing Costs 12% Of Government Spending)

I saw former President Obama criticizing former President Trump for not passing “transformative” changes. That is, Trump didn’t sign any Obama-like transformative changes (like Obamacare). Truimp did try to slow down the damage done by Obama and his transformative agenda (e.g., open borders, wealth redistritution, green energy) that Biden has attempted to continue.

As we approach the party conventions and Presidential election of 2024, we saw the Economic Surprise Index (ESI) in May decline to -0.126.

Coupled with Biden’s negative buying conditions for housing (higher mortgage rates and soaring house prices), Obama’s Jacobian transformative economic fantasty is on thin ice.

Speaking of higher interest rates, US debt servicing costs currently make up 12% of government spending. Jacobin revolution = Cloward-Piven.

Let’s hope the Obama/Biden Jacobin revolution doesn’t get to this point!

Fear The Talking Fed! Inflation Restarts As Fed EXPANDS M2 Money (Mortgage Rates Stabilize)

Money, money!

The various talking heads from The Federal Reserve keep jawboning about whether to raise rates or not. One of the major drivers of inflation is … money. M2 Money growth YoY is growing again (blue line)! And with it, inflation has been rekindled.

Mortgage rates? There is a lag between M2 Money printing and conforming mortgage rate growth.

Fear the talking Fed.

Sign Of The Times! Mortgage Purchase Demand (Applications) DOWN -2% Since Last Week, DOWN -11% Since Last Year (VA Mortgages Prepaying The Fastest)

It’s a sign of the times under Bidenomics!

Mortgage applications increased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 17, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined for the third straight week, dropping to 7.01 percent – the lowest level in seven weeks. Thus, the Refinance Index increased 7 percent from the previous week and was 21 percent higher than the same week one year ago.