Is The US Economy Already In A Recession? Put/Call Ratio, US Yield Curve And 20 Straight Months Of Negative Wage Growth Say Yes, Real GDP And Unemployment Rate Say No

Today is all quiet of the financial market front since the US stock

Today is all quiet of the financial market front since the US stock and bond markets are closed. But as the new year starts, we have to ask the following question: is the US already in a recession?

Well, if you follow the NBER business cycle tracker, the answer is no. Unfortunately, the NBER only tells us if we are in a recession after it has already happened.

A simple measure of IMPENDING recession is the US yield curve which is currently inverted. Typically, a recession occurs within months of the yield curve inverting. But if we look at real GDP growth, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker is at 3.7%, so no recession there (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is often used as a measure of recession).

But another indicator of “all is not well” is the CBOE Put/Call Ratio. Typically, the Put/Call Ratio spikes during a recession. But on December 28, 2022, the Put/Call Ratio spiked to its highest level since 1996. Although it has calmed down to 0.84 on December 30, 2022. Suffice it to say that there is enormous uncertainty in markets.

Covid begat massive Fed monetary stimulus and an excuse for the Federal government to go on a series of spending sprees (Covid “relief”, Instrastructure, Inflation Reduction, and now the $1.7 Trillion pork-laden Omnibus bill). Now that historic big spender Nancy Pelosi (CA-D) is no longer Speaker, will her successor have such a voracious spending appetite? The US economy is still benefitting from Covid-related stimulus which also helped generate 40-year highs in inflation.

Thanks to inflation, US workers have had 20 consecutive months of negative wage growth. But as M2 Money growth slows to a halt, so will real average hourly earnings.

The traditional measures of recession (unemployment and Real GDP growth) are NOT pointing to recession, but 20 straight months of negative wage growth points to bad news for workers. Throw in an inverted yield curve and massive volatility in the CBOE Put-Call Ratio and we have a party … that I don’t want to attend.

In other news, the Washington Commanders football team unveilved a new hog mascot. Of course, the Washington Hogs mascot could also apply to the Federal government with their incessant pork-barrel spending. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is the honorary hog.

Hey big spenders, spend TRILLIONS on Ukraine and pork barrel projects.

and bond markets are closed. But as the new year starts, we have to ask the following question: is the US already in a recession?

Well, if you follow thme NBER business cycle tracker, the answer is no. Unfortunately, the NBER only tells us if we are in a recession after iti has already happened.

Thanks to inflation, US workers have had 20 consecutive months of negative wage growth. But as M2 Money growth slows to a halt, so will real average hourly earnings.

Hey big spenders, spend TRILLIONS on Ukraine and pork barrel projects.

US Housing Leading Growth Index Slumps To Lowest Since 1982 And 2008 Recessions (Fed Pivot Coming?)

As we begin 2023 (and I am still bummed-out over Ohio State University losing a nail-bitter to Georgia in the Peach Bowl), we need to look at the condition of one of the most important sectors of the US economy.\, housing.

If we look at the US Housing Leading Growth index (courtesy of RecessionAlert.com) has slumped to its worst reading since the recessions of 1982 and 2008.

And then we have the OCED leading indicators for the US falling as M2 Money growth slows.

My favorite chart shows US home price growth falling faster than University of Michigan football team’s national championship home hopes.

Will this prompt The Federal Reserve to pivot? Only time will tell.

A Year Of Pain! Investors Struggle In A New Era Of Higher Rates And Goin’ Green, Worst Combined Stock And Bond Returns Since 1871 (Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway Was UP 4% In 2022, Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Was DOWN -67%)

2022 is one of the record books and not in a Tiger Woods way. Call it a year of pain.

First, the US enacted policies that drove up energy prices (goin’ green) that reverberated through the entire economy in the form of higher prices. Second, The Federal Reserve, in attempt to combat runaway inflation, started removing the excessive monetary stimulus that had been around since Fed Chair Bernanke initiated QE, the seemingly unlimited purchase of Treasury and Agency MBS securities. Janet Yellen continued the massive asset purchases and zero interest rate policies or ZIRP. Now that inflation has struck the American middle class hard, we are seeing Fed Chair Powell doing what Bernanke and Yellen wouldn’t do — remove the monetary punchbowl.

Using Robert Shiller’s on line data, US stocks and bonds have had an awful year, the worst combined year since 1871.

US equity returns have been demolished under the NEW dual mandate (goin’ green = rising prices = Fed tightening).

Let’s see how two of the most famous investment gurus did in 2022, Warren Buffet and Cathie Wood. Buffet’s Bershire Hathaway Class A equity was UP 4% in 2022, while Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF collapsed by -67% in 2022.

Here is the clinker. The US economy (as well as the global economy) seem dependent on “cheap money” from Central Banks like The Federal Reserve. So the question is … will The Fed pivot? Fed talking heads are saying no, but Fed Funds investors are saying yes to a pivot after June 2023.

Ulysses S Grant was the President the last time the combined stock and bond market was this bad.

Wipeout! Global Bonds And Stocks Suffer $18 Trillion Wipeout In 2022 (MSCI All Country World Index Down >20% In 2022)

Wipeout!

More tech tantrums. China’s Covid surge. And above all, no central banks riding to the rescue if things go wrong. Reeling from a record $18 trillion wipeout, global stocks must surmount all these hurdles and more if they are to escape a second straight year in the red.

With a drop of more than 20% in 2022, the MSCI All-Country World Index is on track for its worst performance since the 2008 crisis, as jumbo interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve more than doubled 10-year Treasury yields — the rate underpinning global capital costs.

And in the US, we have the S&P 500 index being pulverized by Fed rate hikes to in their attempt to slow inflation.

And in the US, mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities are also getting pulverized by inflation and Fed rate tightening.

We are now left with the leftovers like high inflation.

Speaking of leftovers, …

Surviving Inflation And The Fed: ARK’s Cathie Wood or TSLA’s Elon Musk? Or Bitcoin? (Answer: All Are Down Around -68% YoY)

Trying to survive high inflation is difficult, but surviving The Federal Reserve’s counterattack to inflation is even more difficult.

Two people who constantly appear in the business are ARK’s Cathie Wood and TSLA’s Elon Musk. A third we can add is Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX and Alameda Research infamy.

So which one was the best at surviving inflation and The Fed’s counterattack? Answer? None of them.

Since the same day last year, we have seen M2 Money growth plunge and The Fed Funds Target rate rise rapidly from 25 basis points to 4.50%, a rapid increase. But over the last year, Cathie Wood and ARK fell -68.4%, Elon Musk’s Telsa fell -68.9% and Bitcoin fell -65.1%

So, ARK, Tesla and Bitcoin were demolished in 2022 thanks to inflation and The Fed’s counterattack. But the NASDAQ index was down too, but only -35.2% YoY.

US November Pending Home Sales Crash (-38.6% YoY) As Fed Tightens And M2 Money Growth Grinds To A Near Halt

US existing home sales in November collapsed by -38.6% YoY as M2 Money growth runs out of gas.

The above chart is similar to yesterday’s “Ski Slope” chart of US home prices YoY.

Unfortunately, pending home sales YoY are the worst in recorded history.

What will President Biden do about this dire situation? Our “Vacationer in Chief” is off on yet another vacation to St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands, so probably nothing. Now that Biden is sunbathing, what will his Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen do?

US Home Price Growth “Slows” To 9.24% YoY As Fed Tightens Noose (But Fed’s Balance Sheet Remains Elevated)

The US housing market continued to sag in October as the impact of higher mortgage rates and concerns over the economy rattled buyers and sellers.

Prices fell 0.5% from September, the fourth consecutive monthly decline for a seasonally adjusted measure of home prices in 20 large cities, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.

The market began downshifting earlier this year as the Federal Reserve started hiking its benchmark interest rate, with the goal of easing high inflation that’s been driven in part by skyrocketing housing costs.

Rates for 30-year, fixed mortgages reached 7.08% in October — and again in November — though they have since retreated, Freddie Mac data show. With borrowing costs roughly double where they were at the start of the year, and inflation leaving less savings to put toward a down payment, homebuyers have pulled back. Sellers are also reluctant to list their properties, yet houses that are on the market are lingering and getting discounted as demand slumps.

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index “cooled” to 9.24% YoY growth as The Federal Reserve tightens its monetary noose.

Of the top twenty metro areas, both Miami and Tampa Florida were up over 20% YoY. Hot ‘Lanta, Charlotte and Dallas were over 10% YoY. Mordor on the Potomac was up “only” 6% and all other metro areas were under 10%.

But if we look at October/September changes, all metro areas are down (MoM) with San Francisco the worst.

Finally, The Federal Reserve’s massive balance sheet is still out in force.

Look at this chart of the Case-Shiller National home price index again The Fed’s balance sheet. Uh-oh.

Let’s look at San Francisco (my hometown) since The Federal Reserve began interest rate tightening.

US Gasoline And Diesel Prices Falling As Fed Tightens Monetary Noose (But Gasoline Prices Still Up 30% Under Biden, Diesel Prices Up 78%)

As the global economy slows and global central banks continue to tighten, we are seeing gasoline and diesel prices falling.

But bear in mind that US gasoline prices remain 30% higher since Biden was sworn-in as President. Diesel prices are up a staggering 78% since that fatal day.

Speaking of tightening monetary policy, the US Treasury yield curves have flattened/inverted since The Fed started tightening with rate increases to fight inflation.

Let’s see how inflation does with Congress’ $1.7 trillion, unread Omnibus bill. Aka, Grand Theft Congress. Pelosi is holding an iPhone and Schumer is holding the scope rifle. McConnell is wearing the gas mask since the wasteful spending truly stinks.

US New Home Sales Rose 5.8% MoM In November, But DOWN -15.3% YoY For The Ninth Straight Month (M2 Money Is Vanishing)

A classic good news, bad news story. The good news? US new home sales rose 5.8% in November, better that the expected -5.1%, The bad news? On a year-over-year basis, US new home sales FELL

Sales of new US homes unexpectedly rose in November, suggesting some stabilization in demand as mortgage rates eased late in the month from their highs.

Purchases of new single-family homes increased 5.8% to an annualized 640,000 pace last month after rising in October, government data showed Friday.

A mid-month retreat in 30-year mortgage rates back below 7% along with an increase in builder incentives may have helped support demand. Still, the sales data are volatile from month to month. With home prices remaining elevated and the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates further, headwinds for the housing market will persist into 2023.

The increase in sales last month was concentrated in the West and Midwest.

The report, produced by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, showed the median sales price of a new home was up 9.5% from a year earlier to $471,200.

There were 461,000 new homes for sale as of the end of last month, though the grand majority remain under construction or not yet started. The number of homes sold in November and awaiting the start of construction — a measure of backlogs — rose to the highest since the beginning of the year.

But for all the cheerleading, new home sales were DOWN -15.3% on a year-over-year basis. The ninth straight month of negative new home sales growth.

At least the median price of new home sales was down -2.79% from October to November.

Inflation Bomb? US Core PCE Deflator Calms Down To 4.7% YoY, Still Over 2x Fed Inflation Target (Taylor Rule At 10.10%, Still Unachievable)

There’s inflation in the air. The US Core PCE deflator slowed to 4.7% YoY in November. But it is still over 2x The Fed’s inflation target.

The lower core PCE growth of 4.7% YoY results in a Taylor Rule estimate for The Fed Funds Target rate of 10.10%. Which The Fed will never reach, particularly since the House Of Overlords (the US Senate) just passed a grossly irresponisble omnibus bill of $1.7 trillion laden with insidious pork barrel spending and, on a depressing note, billions for border security in Egypt, Oman and other countries, just not our wide-open border with Mexico.

Here are the Lords of Darkness (Schumer and Pelosi) who concocted this witch’s brew of crony payoffs that will be ulitmately signed by El Stupido (Biden).