Republicans are trying to lock in Trump’s tax cuts and Democrats are resisting. We now know that DOGE is trying to end the wasteful spending in DC. But I would really like to see tax rates on the middle class fall.
The wealth gap between the top 1% of taxpayers and the bottom 50% of taxpayers is enormous. And has gotten worse since 1990.
Meanwhile. to fight off the temporary effects of the tariff war, Trump is urging Fed Chair Powell to cut rates.
Powell will likely NOT cut rates. But what does “Lunatic Liz” Warren say about rate cuts??
US home prices hit a new record high in February, according to the latest data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, rising 0.4% MoM (as expected). However, the pace of price rises did slow modestly (after accelerating for the past three months) to +4.50% YoY. And home prices track Fed money printing.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for February, down from a 4.1% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 5.4% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from a 4.7% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 7.0% and 6.6%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 1.5%.
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices presented slight upward trends in February, posting 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month increases of 0.5% and 0.4%. The U.S. National Composite Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%.
“Even with mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range and affordability challenges lingering, home prices have shown notable resilience,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Buyer demand has certainly cooled compared to the frenzied pace of prior years, but limited housing supply continues to underpin prices in most markets. Rather than broad declines, we are seeing a slower, more sustainable pace of price growth.”
We are still suffering from Biden’s horrible economic policies. 10% Joe had a heart of fool’s gold.
Existing-home sales descended in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slid in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales dropped in the Midwest and South, increased in the West and were unchanged in the Northeast.
Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in March. Year-over-year, sales drew back 2.4% (down from 4.12 million in March 2024).
Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 1.33 million units, up 8.1% from February and 19.8% from one year ago (1.11 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.5 months in February and 3.2 months in March 2024.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is apparently waiting for the tariff “war” to settle down before he pushes for interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, rising mortgage rates are hurting consumers and the mortgage industry.
Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Overall mortgage application activity declined last week, as rates increased to their highest level in two months. The 30-year fixed rate rose for the second straight week to 6.9 percent, an almost 30-basis-point increase over two weeks.
Despite the slump in ‘soft’ survey data, analysts expected Empire Fed Manufacturing to bounce back from March’s tumble to one year lows and they were right with the headline index rising from -20.0 to -8.1 (considerably better than the -13.5), but still negative. However, while current conditions jumped, expectations plunged to the lowest since 9/11/.
Thunderstruck! The tariff kerfuffle between the Trump Administration and China is causing turbulence in the Treasury market. The 10-year Treasury rate is soaring with China’s counterpunching.
MBS spreads are widening.
Along with volatility.
But corporate spreads are widening more than MBS spreads.
The 10Y-2Y yield curve has risen to the highest level since the early days of “China Joe” Biden.
On a related note, Freddie Mac serious delinquency rates on mortgages is now the highest since the financial crisis.
The mortgage market got its mind set on a recovery, but Biden’s mindless economic policies have jammed up the mortgage market. Example? Mortgage applications are down in a season where they typically increase.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 57 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. Most mortgage rates finished last week lower, with the 30-year fixed essentially unchanged at 6.70 percent. Last week’s level of purchase applications was its highest since the end of January, driven by a 3 percent increase in conventional purchases, while government purchase applications were down 2 percent.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.70 percent from 6.71 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Conforming 30Y mortgage rates are up 137% since Biden was elected President.
Soothe me? As we move further away from Sleepy Joe’s horrid economic policies, we should see an improvement in GDP from the current Atlanta Fed GDP Now Q1 Forecast of -2.8%.
The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -3.95 percentage points to -4.79 percentage points in the standard model and from -1.92 percentage points to -2.53 percentage points in the alternative model.
The US Treasury 10Y yield has fallen to 4.157% as recession fears mount.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.