The news just keeps getting worse and worse. Russia is still assaulting Ukraine, WTI Crude prices are above $100 a barrel and climbing, the Cleveland Browns signed Deshaun Watson to replace Baker Mayfield at quarterback, etc.
But back to energy prices. Since Biden was sworn-in as President, WTI Crude Oil futures are up 125%, regular gasoline prices are up 89%, and diesel fuel prices are up 155%. Diesel is important since America uses diesel-powered trucks to transport goods to market.
Globally? The world inflation rate has grown from 2% in January 2021 to 6.82%. Global food prices are up 24%.
Yes, WTI Crude and Brent Crude are above $100 per barrel.
And coal prices are up 256% under Shoeless Brainless Joe.
Mortgage rates? Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate is now above 4.50%.
Let’s see if Dr. StrangeFedpolicy raises rates as aggressively as signaled.
The Federal Reserve is not mentioned in the movies “The Big Short” or “Margin Call”, but The Fed’s policy errors played a big role in the demise of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s equity prices.
Here is a chart of The Fed’s many policies errors. Let’s start with The Fed lowering rates too fast around the 2001 recession. They pushed their target rate from 6.5% in December 2000 down to 1.75% after one year and then down to 1% (PE1). As home price growth accelerated, The Fed engaged in their second policy error — raising rates too fast resulting in a dramatic cooling of home price growth. Then came Policy Error 3: the dropping of The Fed Funds Target rate from 5.25% in September 2007 to an eventual 0.25% in December 2008.
With the election of President Obama, The Fed engaged in Policy Error 4: keeping The Fed Funds Target rate too low for too long, combined with their massive asset purchase programs (QE).
Finally, The Fed (under Yellen) finally raised The Fed’s target rate ONCE under Obama, but started raising rates once Trump was elected. The Fed also slowed their QE under Trump which as called “Fed policy NORMALIZATION.” Then COVID struck and The Fed engaged in Policy Error 5: keeping rates too low for too long … again while massively expanding their balance sheet.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the DC mortgage giants were done in by The Fed’s whipsaw Policy Error machine.
Now we are embarking on PE 5: Powell and The Fed Gang not raising rates but signalling that they will. Like the play “Waiting for Godot.”
US existing home sales fell -7.24% from January as mortgage rates soar. On a YoY basis, existing home sales declined by -2.43%.
The median price of existing home sales “slowed” to 15% YoY in February as inventory picked-up slightly. And yes, Fed Stimulypto is still around and hasn’t helped increase inventory for sale.
As I said earlier, we are seeing the Treasury yield curve plunging towards recession.
Well, Powell and The Fed Gang failed to tackle inflation with its 25 basis point increase in their target rate. The result? Inflation is still roaring and REAL Treasury yields remain NEGATIVE (nominal Treasury yields – inflation).
In fact, the US Treasury 10-year yield hovering around 0% when Biden first became President, then the inflation kraken was unleashed leading to progressively declining 10-year Treasury yields. As on late night, the REAL 10-year Treasury yield is -5.71%.
REAL mortgage rates (Bankrate 30Y rate – inflation) were positive at the beginning of the Biden Administration, but have sunk to -3.40%.
With negative REAL mortgage rates (and continued Fed Stimulypto), we saw February housing starts rise 6.8% in February.
The Fed is apparently jittery about Russia invading Ukraine (mentioned in The Fed minutes) as well as the possibility of China invading Taiwan (NOT mentioned in The Fed minutes).
But if we look at the Fed DOTS plot, we see a rise in The Fed Funds Target rate in 2022 (7 rate hikes), more rate hikes in 2023 and 2024 and then a slowing in the longer term (as if voting members have a clue about the long-run economy).
The WIRP (Fed Funds Futures) is signalling 7 MORE rate increases over the coming year.
Biden is relying on Powell And The Fed Gang to provide ample liquidity in the markets, particularly before the midterm elections in November (hint: Biden doesn’t want Powell to rock the boat).
Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 11, 2022.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 49 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate has surged to 4.46%.
Here is a photo of alligators in Great Falls, Virginia, up-river from Washington DC. They are likely congregating for the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement today.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) final demand rose 10% YoY in February, further evidence of spiraling inflation under Biden/Pelosi/Schumer’s reign of error.
And speaking of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the Empire State Manufacturing Survey (General Business Conditions) crashed to -11.8.
And Russia is losing the economic demolition derby with Ukraine (at least for sovereign debt).
I am still trying to figure out what House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) meant by “When we’re having this discussion, it’s important to dispel some of those who say, well it’s the government spending. No, it isn’t. The government spending is doing the exact reverse, reducing the national debt. It is not inflationary.”
Really Nancy?
Here is a chart of Federal government outlays and inflation. Massive expenditures and growth in Federal debt and the resulting inflation. Nancy?
Yes, it is the much anticipated Fed Week! The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce it decision (probably the first rate hike under Biden of 25 basis points).
This morning, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 11.1 basis points and the Bankrate 30Y mortgage rate rose to 4.33%.
Actually, sovereign yields are up around 10 basis points in the US, Canada, and across the pond.
Fed Funds Futures are pointing to 7 rate hikes over the next year with 1.114 rate hikes on Wednesday. That means The FOMC may raise rates MORE than the 25 basis points expected my many (including me).
The US Treasury actives curve remains steeply upward sloping while both the Russian and Ukraine sovereign curves are steeply inverted and crashing.
Russia has pushed the weighted average maturity of its dollar sovereign bonds out to almost 12 years.
The most hilarious headline of the day is a Bloomberg opinion piece: “Fighting Inflation May Require the Fed to Be Brutal: Clive Crook” How about the Biden Administration relaxing oil drilling and pipeline restraints? Otherwise, brutal translates into causing a recession. Great suggestion, Clive! … NOT!
Well, so much for rising gasoline prices being the fault of Vlad “The Ukrainian Impaler” Putin and Russia invading Ukraine. In fact, gasoline prices were rising at a 62% YoY pace in April 2021, well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
REAL gasoline prices (nominal gasoline prices less inflation) are up 32.72% YoY in February.
Press secretary Jen Psaki can take the opportunity to proclaim that REAL gasoline prices have actually declined in February.
I keep waiting for the Biden Administration and Congress to launch price controls and supply rationing rather than simply allow the Keystone Pipeline to be built and allow drilling on Federal lands.
US Speaker of the House and American Oligarch Nancy Pelosi together with Senate Majority Oligarch Charles Schumer passed yet another massive spending bill that seemingly benefited them and not the American middle class.
This legislation would provide $774.4 million for the Members Representational Allowance, known as the MRA, which funds the House office budgets for lawmakers, including staffer salaries. This $134.4 million, or 21 percent, boost over the previous fiscal year marks the largest increase in the MRA appropriation since it was authorized in 1996, according to a bill summary by the House Appropriations Committee. For paid interns in member and leadership offices, the House would get $18.2 million.
This is especially unfortunate given at inflation is growing at 7.9%. If we remove food and energy (two important categories for consumers and retirees), core inflation is growing at 6.4% YoY. As such, Social Security COLA doesn’t even keep pace with CORE inflation, let alone food and energy costs.
In August, Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced staffers’ salaries could exceed those of lawmakers. Members in both the House and Senate, with the exception of leadership, make an annual salary of $174,000. Staffers can make up to $199,300.
After an 11-year drought, congressional earmarks are back with vengeance.
The $1.5 trillion, 2,741-page omnibus spending package is loaded with funding for lawmaker pet projects, some of which could help incumbents in this fall’s elections.
The legislation includes more than 4,000 earmarks, according to a list of projects provided to The Hill by a Senate Republican aide that spanned 367 pages.
One of the biggest winners was New York — thanks to Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who is up for reelection this year.
Schumer’s name is attached to 59 earmarks totaling nearly $80 million in the omnibus’s transportation and housing and urban development (HUD) section alone, according to a review by The Hill. He successfully requested funding for the projects either individually or with other lawmakers from his home state.
Is wild-spending Pelosi actually “The Bride of Chucky (Schumer)”?
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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