As I told my Chicago, Ohio State and George Mason University finance and real estate students, repeatedly, “Watch out when The Fed begins to tighten monetary policy. It will be a bloodbath for taxpayers.”
Well, here we are. I argue that Biden’ green energy knucklehead policies are driving inflation, or it could be the insane level of Federal spending that Obama economist Larry Summers warned us about, or rising wages (in part due to Federal spending) is to thank for inflation. Or all of the above.
Regardless of the cause, the bond market is enduring its worst selloff in a generation, triggered by high inflation and the aggressive interest-rate hikes that central banks are implementing. Falling bond prices, in turn, mean paper losses on the massive holdings that the Fed and others accumulated during their rescue efforts in recent years.
Rate hikes also involve central banks paying out more interest on the reserves that commercial banks park with them. That’s tipped the Fed into operating losses, creating a hole that may ultimately require the Treasury Department to fill via debt sales. The UK Treasury is already preparing to make up a loss at the Bank of England.
The Reserve balance has crashed into negative territory.
And Fed losses are skyrocketing.
Agency MBS prices are up today, but are down since August 2022. But risk measures duration and convexity are zooming upwards.
The Federal Reserve’s DOTS PLOT shows where each Fed official’s projection for the central bank’s key short-term interest rate is headed. As of the September 21, 2022 Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the prediction of future Fed target rates is decidedly DOWNWARD SLOPING.
The Fed hawks, those that want to tighten monetary policy, are Bowman, Waller, Kashkari, Mester and George. The Fed doves (or those who are neutral) are Biden recent appointees Barr, Cook, Jefferson, Logan, Collins. Note that Brainard and Bostic are the only technical doves.
I call the hawks at The Fed “The Blackhawks” since their mission of fighting inflation may lead to a recession. And Bowman, Mester and George are Lady Blackhawks.
One of my friends on Wall Street wrote my yesterday claiming “The 10-year Treasury yield is set to crash. Brace for impact!” Then I logged into Bloomberg this AM and saw the 10-year Treasury yield up almost 10 basis points (although it is down -2 BPS at 10:20am). Did markets not read his comments?? Maybe they did!
Well, The Fed is doing the Tighten Up. That is, The Fed is FINALLY removing their excessive monetary stimulus left over from the Bernanke Blowout (2008 adopting Japan’s print ’till you drop model).
But as The Fed removes their monetary stimulus (rate increases), we are seeing negative effects in the housing market. I call this chart “The X Factor.”
The US Treasury 10-year yield is up to 4.3% this morning, a far cry from 1.804% when Biden was crowned as President on January 20, 2021. The 30-year mortgage rate is up from 3.67% on Coronation Day to 7.32% yesterday, an increase of … 100% (that is, the 30-year mortgage rate has doubled under Biden). At the same time, Existing Home Sales YoY have gone from -2.41% in January 2021 to -23.79% in September 2022. THAT is a HUGE decline!
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for housing for 77 in January 2021 to 39 in November 2022. That is a -49% decline in consumer confidence. Also a big decline.
But going back to my pal’s email, he also said that The Fed is unwinding its balance sheet at a dangerously rapid rate (orange line). Relative to just increasing it, I would agree with him. But The Fed’s balance sheet is barely declining to my eyes. The troubling thing for housing is that inflation is so hot that REAL average hourly earnings YoY (yellow line) has fallen from +0.24% growth YoY on January 25, 2021 to a horrific -2.80% YoY rate in September 2022.
Bill’s point to me is that lending is still hot (at least commercial and industrial lending or C&I) while The Fed’s balance sheet remains in force (green line).
The Fed has a lot more work to do if they want to cool the commercial lending market. They have successfully slowed down the residential mortgage market.
Today’s existing home sales were … gruesome. While EHS month-over-month were down only -1.5%, on a year-over-year basis EHS was down a staggering -23.79%.
If you look at the declining growth rate of M2 Money (green line) and rising mortgage rates (yellow line), we can see why the housing market is struggling.
How about median price? That dropped to 8.07% YoY as inventory for sale remains lower than before Covid and Covid stimulypto.
US 30-year mortgage rates rose to 7.20% yesterday, the highest rate since 2000. Why?
Core inflation is rising and its the highest since 1992. Diesel prices, the all-important fuel for the transportation industry, is rising again after a brief respite and is near the all-time high.
But will mortgage rates continue to rise? That depends on The Federal Reserve. Will they continue to try to combat inflation (largely caused by … The Federal Reserve and voracious Federal spending under Biden/Pelosi/Schumer (The Three Amigos).
As of today, investors in Fed Funds Futures are pointing to a peak of Fed tightening in May 2023, then a slow decline in rates.
While this is The Fed Funds rate, it is likely that mortgage rates will continue to rise to May 2023 then level out at 9%-9.25%.
I really miss teaching college students. An example of a test question I gave was the first chart: who was The President when all hell broke loose (pink box)? 1) Joe Biden, 2) Donald Trump or 3) Millard Fillmore?
The answer, of course, is Joe Biden.
Doesn’t Millard Fillmore, the 13th President of the United States, look like actor Alec Baldwin after too many cheeseburgers and chocolate milkshakes at In-N-Out Burger?
Bear in mind that the are numerous wildcards in play, like the Russia/Ukraine war and the probability the China will invade Taiwan in the near future.
Model is down 20% this year, its worst return since 2008
Yet routs could allow model to ‘rise from the ashes’
(Bloomberg) Blame the Fed, war and fiscal profligacy all you want. But big trouble was lurking in many widely followed portfolio strategies long before those threats took hold (because of the Fed).
That’s the upshot of new research that uses a yield-derived valuation model to show the famous 60/40 allocation reached its most expensive level in almost five decades during the Covid-19 rally. The situation has reversed in 2022, which is now by some definitions the worst year ever for the bond-and-equities cocktail.
The data is a harsh reminder of the primacy of valuation in determining returns. It may also pass as good news for the investment industry, suggesting logic rather than broken markets is informing the current carnage. Leuthold Group says the hammering has been so brutal that valuation is apt to become a tailwind again for a portfolio design many seem willing to leave for dead.
It’s worth considering the heights from which 60/40 has fallen. Yields on the Bloomberg USAgg Index slid in 2021 to 1.12%, while the earnings yield on the S&P 500 dropped to 3.25%, one of the lowest readings in the last four decades. Taken together the levels had never implied a more bloated starting point for cross-asset investors.
To be sure, the 60% stock, 40% bond mix did a good job of protecting investors against market swings in the past. This year has been different, with stocks and bonds falling in tandem amid stubbornly high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s whatever-it-takes approach to bringing it down. A Bloomberg model tracking a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% fixed-income securities is down 20% this year, a hair away from topping 2008 as the worst year ever and only the third down year since Bloomberg started tracking the data in 2007.
The co-movement of equities and bonds has tightened “decisively” in 2022, with three-month rolling correlations jumping to a 23-year high of 45%, versus the 10-year average of minus 25%, according to Mandy Xu and Frank Poerio at Credit Suisse Group AG. In other words, both are selling off in tandem, with the two recently posting 11 consecutive days of moving together, a streak not seen since 1997. And their performance is twice as bad this year as it was in 2002 when stocks posted a similar drawdown.
“We were coming off historically high valuations for both equities and fixed income,” Marvin Loh, senior macro strategist at State Street Global Markets, said in an interview. But the strategy could soon start to do what it’s supposed to do, he added, “because you’re getting in with fixed-income valuations that make a whole lot more sense. There’s a lot more natural buyers for a 4% 10-year than there is for 0.3%.”
Plenty of others have taken this view as well — cross-asset strategists at Morgan Stanley said over the summer that the 60/40 portfolio was merely resting and not yet dead, while researchers at the Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors said it was a bad time to “steer a new path” and abandon the balanced approach.
Elsewhere, exchange-traded fund investors are preparing for the possibility that peak bond pain has passed, with investors scooping up call options on products like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) and the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD).
Let’s see how it all works out as M2 Money YoY crashes with Fed tightening.
I love to teach, but my students at Chicago, Ohio State and George Mason would fall asleep when I would discuss repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements (or REPOs and Reverse REPOs). But repos and reverse repos are a critical part of the banking system.
In short, the Repo market is a window into what’s going on behind the scenes.
As Bidenflation soars, and The Fed counterattacks, we see Fed’s repo market remains elevated. Note that The Fed’s balance sheet (orange line) is only slowly being reduced.
Right now, the risk lurking in the shadows is Balance Sheet Runoff. The Fed, the markets, the regulators, have limited experience with the Fed shrinking the balance sheet. Bottom line: there’s a risk that Balance Sheet Runoff will breaking something.
The global stock market is up again today, despite Fed tightening and a war in Ukraine. The Dow is up 1.38% and the S&P 500 is up 1.75%.
Likely cause? Rumors that The Fed and other global central banks will pivot sooner than later.
It is likely that The Fed will pivot to prevent a crash and the stock market in pricing in that pivot.
Bernanke, Yellen and Powell are NOT Paul Volcker. In fact, I am coining a new nickname for Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Pivot Powell.
The US Empire State Manufacturing Survey General Business Conditions SA index fell to -9.1 in October, continuing a downward trend along with the downward trend in Fed M2 Money stock growth.
And the global sovereign debt market is showing fear as 10-year sovereign yields drop -10 basis points. The UK 10-year is down -36.8 bps! The US is down only -6.6 bps this morning.
Over the past year, the dollar has been on a tear: The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of foreign currencies, is up 18%. And up 25.2% under 80-year old US President Joe Biden (well, he will be 80 in November).
For tourists, a strong dollar is great news. It means you get more for your money abroad.
But for investors, a beefed-up buck is decidedly bad news.
When the dollar strengthens, that means foreign revenues are going to translate into fewer dollars. Those earnings are going to come in lower and any overseas investment you own is going to hurt you in a rising dollar environment.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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