The Fed is expected to raise their target rate to 2.875% by February 2023. With that expectation, mortgage rates (yellow line) are soaring. And with that, University of Michigan’s Buying Conditions for housing has plunged to 43, the lowest levels since 1982 as the US was trying to recover from high inflation.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index just plunged to the LOWEST LEVEL in history on inflation and Fed’s reaction.
Average REAL wage growth has now declined to -2.11% YoY.
Pennies from Heaven. That is what the bottom 50% received from The Federal Reserve’s massive doses of monetary stimulus (or stimulypto).
There was one big dose of monetary stimulus in late 2008 surrounding the financial crisis and housing bubble burst, another doses (aka, QE 2 and QE3) then the biggest dose of all with the outbreak of Covid in early 2020.
President Biden should have mentioned on Jimmy Dimmel last night that The Federal Reserve has helped the bottom 50% with its endless monetary stimulus.
But if you were fortunate enough to own a home (the top 1% are likely homeowners), then you benefited from The Fed’s monetary stimulypto.
And I noticed that Biden didn’t mention plunging REAL average weekly earnings YoY.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary “policies” have benefited the top 1% and homeowners relative to the bottom 50% (who often rent and got clobbered with 20% growth in rents).
Great job, Fed! Making housing more unaffordable for rents (combine rising rents and declining REAL wages and we have a real affordability problem).
Home affordability for first time homebuyers?
And what is with Biden’s ear lobes? As inflation is rising, his ear lobes are shrinking.
The inflation numbers are out tomorrow. I noticed that Biden and Jimmy Dimmel only discussed gun control, not the sad state of the economy under Biden.
Here is my version of their chart since 2000 where you can seen the seismic shift in the balance sheet (toxic green slime line), particularly with The Fed’s response to Covid. The Fed is signaling a tightening in monetary policy to help reduce inflation (blue line).
But notice that M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2) is now near the all-time low along with consumer purchasing power.
How BIG is The Fed’s balance sheet? Try more that a third of size of US GDP.
And as The Fed signals its inflation-fighting intentions, mortgage rates have shot up to 5.51%, the highest mortgage rate since June 2009.
This is not the legacy that will endear President Biden to voters. Regular gasoline prices have risen 101% under Biden.
But it not just gasoline and diesel that are soaring (while the rest of us are sore!), CRB Foodstuffs are up 58% under Biden while the 30-year mortgage rate is up 89% under Biden.
And this morning, WTI crude futures are up +1.71%.
And up 142% under Biden.
Prices are sizzling and clobbering the American middle class and low wage workers. But former Federal Reserve Chair and current US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen never saw it coming.
Biden’s just killing us. And Powell is making up for Yellen’s keeping monetary stimulus too high for too long. Price? Mortgage rates are soaring.
Instead of President Ronald Reagan saying ““Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” we need someone to tell President Biden and Federal Reserve Jerome Powell to “Stop driving up prices and making housing unaffordable.” Unfortunately, The Fed thinks that raising interest rates will temper price increases — it won’t. But it could tamper home price growth.
So what we are left with is soaring home prices AND soaring mortgage rates, leaving this scary chart. The housing cost index has risen 114.5% under Biden.
Its only going to get worse from here.
Today’s jobs report for May showed that the U-3 unemployment rate remained the same as April, 3.60%. However, that is lower than the NATURAL rate of unemployment of 4.445% indicating that the labor market is overheated. Historically, The Fed has tightened monetary policy by raising rates when this has happened. So, look for The Fed to keep raising rates.
As I have mentioned before, REAL hourly wage growth is negative since March 2021, just after Biden signed his executive orders canceling drilling on Federal lands and cancelling the Keystone Pipeline. Later, he canceled off-shore drilling permits and Alaska drilling. Now we have REAL average hourly wages declining at -2.8% YoY as The Fed has been reducing M2 Money supply YoY.
Listings of homes is up 11% YoY, the highest in several years.
Let’s see how the housing market does with soaring mortgage rates.
First, ADP US jobs added flopped (only 128.2k jobs added, the lowest reading under Biden and the massive Federal Reserve stimulus). Much lower than the expected 300k. Second, nonfarrm labor productivity fell in Q1 -7.3%. Third, unit labor costs soared to +12.6%.
M2 Money stock YoY is falling, but remains at 8% YoY.
Here is the summary table for today.
And then we have the Atlanta Fed GDPNow, real-time GDP tracker for Q2 at 1.3%.
As M2 Money growth slows, US GDP is slowing as well. Is this a monetary hangover??
And, of course, rents are soaring for the American middle class and low wage workers.
President Biden met with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to discuss how to control the inflation that is crushing the middle class and low-wage workers.
Here is a good example of why Biden is worried. There is a mid-term election on the horizon and people are angry and scared. Housing, generally the largest asset owned (or rented) by a household is simply unaffordable thanks, in part, to the over-stimulation of the economy by 1) The Federal Reserve in terms of money printing and 2) the Federal government in terms of fiscal stimulus in response to the Covid outbreak in March 2020.
In nominal terms, the gap between US home prices (Case-Shiller National Home Price Index YoY – US Average Hourly Earnings YoY) is near the all-time high.
Yes, home price growth exploded upwards when The Fed rapidly expanded their balance sheet in response to the Covid outbreak … and only now are considering shrinking the balance sheet.
In terms of house prices, CoreLogic has a nice chart depicted the odds of home prices dropping over the coming year. I circled Columbus Ohio because that is where I am moving (knock on wood).
And then we have the 30-year mortgage rate rising with The Fed’s expected tightening of monetary policy. That will certainly make housing even less affordable, unless house price growth cools dramatically.
German inflation hit another post-World-War-II record high, piling pressure on The ECB’s need to exit from crisis-era stimulus after numbers from Spain also printed hotter than expected.
Driven by soaring energy and food costs, this morning’s data showed consumer prices in Europe’s largest economy surged 8.7% YoY – far hotter than the +8.1% expected (the highest since the start of the monthly statistics in 1963).
And top of that, the German 10-year Bund rate rose +9.4 BPS this morning, although Finland, Hungary and Slovakia all rose above +10 BPS.
While US markets are closed today in honor of Memorial Day, the US Treasury curve (10Y-2Y) has stabilized at 25.8 basis points after the initial shock of The Fed finally raising rates for the first time under Biden.
Then there is this headline: Biden to Meet Powell to Discuss Economy Amid Inflation Pain. So much for Fed independence. I wonder if Powell will say “Joe, have you ever considered canceling your executive orders on oil and natural gas exploration?”
Memorial Day weekend is one where families often travel to meet relatives and friends, or travel to Washington DC to remember those who have died in the service of our country.
But traveling has gotten a lot more expensive under Biden. Gasoline prices are up 92.4% under Biden, while food prices are up 60%. Those hamburgers and hot dogs for grilling are being replaced by … pizza? Or maybe plant-based products.
Zillow’s Rent Index All Homes YoY was only 0.6234% in February 2021, and has soared to 16.36% YoY under Biden. That is an increase of 14.75x. So, not only is it much more expensive to travel on Memorial Day weekend, but it is far more expensive to stay home in your rental property.
On the currency front, we are seeing the US Dollar falling (greenback line), along with the Yuan/USD cross currency. West Texas Intermediate Crude Cushing OK spot is at $115.07.
At least Venezuela and Iran are benefiting greatly by Biden’s energy policies, even if Americans are suffering. Perhaps this is the new foreign policy of Wynken (US VP Harris), Blynken (US SecState), and Nod (Biden).
Remembering my Uncle Jack Sanders who served in the Battle of The Bulge during World War II, winning an individual Silver Star for bravery and two Purple Hearts. He rose from “buck” private to First Sergeant by the end of WWII.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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