The Deep! The US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Keeps Going Deep Into Inversion As M2 Money YoY Collapses

The US economy is in “The Deep.” Deep into yield curve inversion, that is.

The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve swam deeper into inversion at -75 basis points. The deepest inversion since just before The Great Recession and housing market crash.

98 Shades Of Gray! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inverts To -73.5 BPS, Worst Since 1981 (98 Straight Days Of Inversion)

The Biden Administration is setting all sorts of records. One is the worst inflation rate in 40 years. Another is highest gasoline prices in history (until the latest global slowdown). The list goes on, but here is another one: the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is now at -72.5 basis points, the more inverted curve since 1981.

This is the US Treasury version of 50 Shades Of Grey.

Drivers To See Highest Thanksgiving Gasoline Prices Ever While Diesel-To-Gasoline Spread Soars (Food Prices UP 49% Under Biden, Diesel Prices UP 102%)

As Americans prepare to hit the road for Thanksgiving, average gas prices will be at their highest seasonal level ever, according to GasBuddy.

GasBuddy says the national average is projected to stand at $3.68 on Thanksgiving Day. This is nearly 30¢ higher than last year, and over 20¢ higher than the previous record of $3.44 set in 2012.

And diesel prices, the life blood of the shipping industry, relative to gasoline prices, are soaring. Highest since 2004.

As we approach Thanksgiving Day, it is important to be thankful … that things aren’t even worse under Billions Biden. US CRB foodstuffs are up 49% under Biden while diesel fuel is up 102%.

Now, gasoline prices fell recently as WTI crude prices slipped on slowing demand. And as stimulus wears out.

And its now only food.

Have a holly jolly Thanksgiving!!

My Thanksgiving dinner, because of the cost, will be a Jersey Mike’s turkey and provolone sub (mini). Or this canned dinner.

NOW A Warning?? FTX Owes Its 50 Biggest Unsecured Creditors More Than $3 Billion (Biden Leads Call For Global Bitcoin And Crypto Rules After Shock FTX Collapse)

As Meryl Steep said in Death Becomes Her, “NOW a warning??”

Joe Biden Leads ‘Critical’ Call For Game-Changing, Global Bitcoin And Crypto Rules After Shock FTX Collapse. After Sam Bankman-Fried helped Democrats avoid a red wave. NOW a warning??

The chaos created by Sam Bankman-Fried (FTX Crypto Exchange) and Alameda Research (SBF’s hedge fund) will go down in history as one of the biggest scams. And should earn a top spot on Phil Hall’s 100 Years Of Wall Street Crooks.

Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each.

FTX-linked entities owe their single biggest unsecured creditor more than $226 million, according to a redacted list of top 50 creditors filed late Saturday. All of them were listed as customers and ten have claims of more than $100 million each, the filings show.

The creditors, whose names and  locations weren’t disclosed, are among the vast array of people and institutions caught up in FTX’s insolvency. The 50 largest claims are all from customers owed $21 million or more. 

In the US, bankrupt companies are required to disclose information about their debts as part of insolvency proceedings. Creditors will get to weigh in on the best way for FTX to repay its debts as the bankruptcy unfolds. 

FTX said it has assets and liabilities of at least $10 billion each in preliminary court papers. The case may involve more than one million creditors, according to lawyers for FTX. 

The case is FTX Trading Ltd., 22-11068, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.

And then this headline from the Wall Street Journal: FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried Cashed Out $300 Million During Funding Spree.

On top of that, SBF is attempting to raise MORE money. The question is … who would be dumb enough to listen to SBF?

Crytpo continue to fall as investor confidence in crytpo has waned since SBF’s fraud was exposed. (In SBF’s defense, I am sure that current House Financial Services committee Chair Maxine Waters will declare he is a victim of changing market conditions, not historically massive fraud and political influence pedaling).

Didn’t SBF or his Alameda Research girlfriend Caroline Ellison look at Bitcoin as inflation roared under Biden and Fed started to remove its epic monetary stimulus? Or did any of the investors or their representatives bother to look at the books of FTX or Alameda Research??

I have the sneaking suspicion that Caroline Ellison or some other little fish will take the fall for SBF’s fraud. SBF has bought-off too many politicians.

NOW a warning from Biden??

Sam Bankman-Fried’s magical election elixir.

Alarm! Yesterday’s PUT/CALL Ratio Was Highest In History (1.46, Higher Than 2001 And 2008!) REAL M2 Money YoY Plunges To Lowest Since 1980 And Jimmy Carter

Alarm!

Yesterday’s PUT/CALL ratio was the highest in history at 1.46. That is higher than 2001 and 2008.

REAL M2 Money YoY has crashed to its lowest level since 1980 and Jimmy Carter.

And the train keeps on rollin’.

Instead of Little Games, The Federal Reserve is making this BIG GAMES.

Existing Home Sales Update: REAL Median Home Price Growth At -1.17% YoY, REAL Wage Growth At -3.0% YoY, REAL 30yr Mortgage Rate At -0.5254% (How Bad Is US Inflation??)

The US housing market is slowing, to be sure. Yesterday’s existing home sales (EHS) report revealed that US EHS were down -28.43% YoY and the median price of EHS slowed to 6.6% YoY.

But that is just the surface of the EHS report for October. Once I removed inflation (CPI YoY) from the numbers, we are left with REAL median price of EHS growth of -1.17% and REAL average hourly earnings YoY of -3.0% YoY. The REAL 30-year mortgage rate is -5.25%. That reveals how horrible inflation is in the US.

It is important to note that EHS numbers are lower in October than they were before Covid stimulypto (my name for the massive spending spree by Congress and massive injection of monetary stimulus by The Fed. Even the REAL 30-year mortgage rate is negative at -0.5254%.

On a side note, how come fraudulent former Stanford student Elizabeth Holmes gets 11 years in prison for her Theranos scam, but Sam Bankman-Fried only gets a House hearing with Maxine “Dirty” Waters as Chair by losing a far greater amount? Could the fact that SBF and his co-founders at FTX contributed $300,351 to nine members of the House Financial Services Committee, according to Federal Election Commission records?

I guess Elizabeth Holmes did not make the requisite pay-offs.

US Existing Home Sales In October Plunge -28.43% YoY As Fed Tightens Monetary Noose (EHS Median Price Growth YoY Slows To 6.6% As Inventory Declines)

As I mentioned on Varney and Company on Fox Business, housing is going to suffer when The Fed starts to tighten their monetary policy. And here we are, folks!

US existing home sales fell a staggering -28.43% YoY in October as M2 Money growth grinds to almost a halt.

October’s existing home sales YoY of -28.43% is the WORST since The Great Recession and collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The median price of existing home sales slowed to 6.6% YoY. Inventory of EHS remains below pre-Covid levels.

Unrelated to housing, Prince Imhotep (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari) said Friday that the whole idea of cryptocurrency is “nonsense” after the implosion of FTX revealed the industry’s shortcomings.

“This isn’t case of 1 fraudulent company in a serious industry,” Kashkari said on Twitter, commenting on an article about how investors fell for FTX. “Entire notion of crypto is nonsense. Not useful 4 payments. No inflation hedge. No scarcity. No taxing authority. Just a tool of speculation & greater fools.”

Or it could be that investors don’t trust The Fed or Federal government to act in their best interest.

Here is a crypto investor (in red fez) being lectured by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.

Limbo Rock! How Low Can The Treasury Yield Curve Go? (Now At -70 Basis Points, Most Inverted Since 1981)

How low will the US Treasury 10y-2y yield curve go?

As of today, the US Treasury 10yr-2yr yield curve is the most inverted since 1981 at -70 basis points.

Meanwhile, equity put/call ratio from CBOE spiked yesterday to highest since 1997.

I am disappointed that The New York Times cancelled their $2,400 event to listen to Sam The Sham Bankman-Fried, Vlad “Show my your money!” Zelensky, Larry “The Big Fink” Fink and Janet “We never saw it coming” Yellen. I would have loved to do the New York Times job for them and ask hard questions to Sam The Sham and Zelensky about money laundering.

Shanghai To LA Shipping Costs Decline 81% From Peak As Fed/Fed Gov Stimulypto Slows To 2010 Levels (M2 Money Growth Slows To 2.6% YoY)

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co, wrote today “Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020)”

Yes, Liz Ann, shipping costs from Shanghai to Los Angeles are plunging. But why?

Federal Reserve and Federal government stimultypo has wound down. M2 Money YoY growth is the lowest since 2010 and no, it isn’t the result of Mayor Pete’s magical skills at clearing the logjam at Los Angeles ports. It is the slowing of Federal stimulus (or stimulypto).

Here is Liz Ann Sonders tweet.

Let’s see if 1) The Fed continues to hike and 2) will House Republicans halt the insane spending, particularly since the start of Covid in 2020.

FTX Chief Hunts for Crypto, Calls Controls ‘a Complete Failure’ (Cryptos Getting Creamed As Fed Tightens) Didn’t SBF See That Coming??

As I have said before, Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX exemplifies loose Fed monetary policy and its unintended consequences: shoddy investment practices by both sides and ridiculous claims that are unverified.

Like Sam Bankman-Fried tweeting that FTX and his team were held as paragons of running an effective company.


I am sure that SBF’s attorneys (like his parents) are telling Spam to stop tweeting ridiculous defenses. As in its all the fault of crypto volatility. We now know that at best SBF had a total lack of corporate controls and thought risk management was the Hasbro board game. And SBF while virtue signaling failed to mention his twisted relationship to Ukraine funding.

(Bloomberg) — Advisers now overseeing the carcass of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX Group are struggling to locate the company’s cash and crypto after finding poor internal controls and record keeping at the now-bankrupt company.

“Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information,” John J. Ray III, the group’s new chief executive officer who formerly oversaw the liquidation of Enron Corp., said in a sworn declaration submitted in bankruptcy court. 

“From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented,” he added.

Advisers have located “only a fraction” of the digital assets of the FTX Group that they hope to recover during the Chapter 11 bankruptcy, Ray said. They’ve so far secured about $740 million of cryptocurrency in offline cold wallets, a storage method designed to prevent hacks. 

The company’s audited financial statements should not be trusted, Ray said. Advisers are working to rebuild balance sheets for FTX entities from the bottom up, he said.
 

FTX “did not maintain centralized control of its cash” and failed to keep an accurate list of bank accounts and account signatories, or pay sufficient attention to the creditworthiness of banking partners, according to Ray. Advisers don’t yet know how much cash FTX Group had when it filed for bankruptcy, but has found about $560 million attributable to various FTX entities so far. 

Although restructuring advisers have been in control of FTX for less than a week, they’ve seen enough to depict the crypto company as a deeply flawed enterprise. Lasting records of decision making are hard to come by: Bankman-Fried often communicated through applications that auto-deleted in short order and asked employees to do the same, according to Ray. 

Well, this story keeps getting worse and worse and makes Sam The Sham look like a common criminal rather than a Democrat Saint.

Didn’t SBF’s chief economist show this chart to him and his Alameda team? The one where crytpos soars at The Fed and Federal government go wild on stimulus, then back-off? As The Fed tightens, cryptos are getting crushed.

At least Bitcoin rallied a bit today to $16,564.21, but other cryptos are down … again. Litecoin is actually up 4.57% while Solana is down -4.35%.

SBF, like Janet Yellen, will claim he didn’t see it coming.