Powell Says Foreign Buyers Distorting Yield-Curve Readings (Gold Rises On Powell Head Fake As US Dollar Declines)

Like John Belushi from The Blues Brothers, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is saying that the markets lackluster response in terms of bond yields to his “hawkish” announcement yesterday “isn’t his fault.”

(Bloomberg) Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell appears unperturbed by the fact that longer-term bond yields remain low even as officials lay the ground work for tighter policy and inflation is ticking higher.

While the drop in longer-term rates may be viewed by some as indicative of where so-called terminal rates for U.S. policy might ultimately lie, Powell on Wednesday emphasized the impact of ultra-low yields in places like Japan and Germany in helping to keep them anchored.

“A lot of things go into the long rates and the place I would start is just look at global sovereign yields around the world,” Powell said at a news conference following the Fed’s final scheduled policy meeting for the year, which saw officials ramp up the pace of stimulus withdrawal and boost predictions for rate hikes in 2022. The Fed Chair noted that rates on Japanese and German government bonds are “so much lower” than those on Treasuries and that with currency hedging taken into account American debt provides investors with a higher yield. “I’m not troubled by where the long bond is,” he said.

This stands as something of a contrast to the view expressed back in 2005 by one of Powell’s predecessors. Back then, Fed chief Alan Greenspan described a decline in long-term bond yields even in the face of six policy rate increases as a “conundrum.”

Or it could be that no one REALLY believes that Central Banks will ever cut interest rates, despite surging inflation.

The US Treasury 10-year yield dropped 7 basis points overnight and remains just south of 1.50%. The Eurozone remains below 1% (with Germany at -0.358% and France at -0.009% at the 10-year mark). Japan is at 0.039%. This is what Powell means by low global rates keeping US long-term rates down.

The 10-year Treasury term premium (measured before Powell’s head fake on raising rates) has returned to pre-Biden levels.

Meanwhile, global equities futures are up across the board (well, except for Mexico).

Gold rose on Powell’s “Tomorrow” talk while the US Dollar fell.

The Fed could have raised their target rate if they were REALLY interested in cooling inflation. The Taylor Rule remains at 14.94% while The Fed is stalled at 0.25%. Even if you don’t like the Taylor Rule, it still highlights how ridiculous Fed Stimulypto is.

Well, we do have a government-propelled economic recovery, but at a cost of declining REAL wages thanks to the highest inflation rate in 40 years.

Hold That Tiger! Fed Keeps Rate At 0.25% But Doubles Pace Of Tapering To $30 Billion A Month (3 Rates Hikes Forecast For 2022, 3 In 2023) Dow Rises Over 300 Points

The Fed’s new theme song is “Hold That Tiger” meaning that despite soaring inflation rates, The Fed kept their target rate at 0.25%. Way to really pull a Volcker and raise rates to choke off inflation. … NOT!

However, The Fed doubled the pace of tapering to $30 billion a month. Median forecast shows three rate hikes in 2022, three in 2023.

The reaction? The Dow rose 363 points as of 3:36pm EST and the 10-year Treasury yield rose a measly 1.9 bps as markets celebrate The Fed DOING NOTHING TO CURB INFLATION.

Here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell singing “Tomorrow” from the musical Annie. Since Powell and The Gang love to kick the can down the road.

The Fed Is the Main Inflation Culprit (But Federal Government’s Spending Spree Was The Icing On The Inflation Cake)

There was an interesting op-ed in The Wall Street Journal entitled “The Fed Is the Main Inflation Culprit”.

If price stability is squandered, financial stability is put at risk. If financial stability is lost, the economy is imperiled and the social contract is threatened.

During the past several quarters, U.S. inflation has surged—now running about triple the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The surge in prices is unlikely to reverse on its own. The longer that prices are unstable, the greater the challenge to the conduct of macroeconomic policy. The last thing the country needs is its third major economic upheaval in a decade and a half.

The consequences of inflation—and the attendant risks—have long been understood. In 1898 economist Knut Wicksell explained: “Changes in the general level of prices have always excited great interest. Obscure in origin, they exert a profound and far-reaching influence on the whole economic and social life of a country.”

I agree with the op-ed, but as Paul Harvey liked to say, “And now for the rest of the story.”

The Federal Reserve is only half of The Federal government “Stimulypto.” Starting in late 2008, The Fed crashed their target rate to 25 basis points and began their quantitative easing (QE) program where The Fed purchased Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) amongst other assets. Notice in the chart below that QE was adjusted, but never went away and The Fed’s target rate only was increased once before Trump’s election as President, then raised eight times then decreased five times. And no rate increases under Biden. So The Fed scorecard is Obama/Biden: 1 rate increase. Trump: 13 rate changes. And The Fed’s balance sheet has gone bananas since the COVID outbreak.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn’t really take-off until March 2021 as a result of STIMULYPTO (excessive monetary stimulus + Federal government spending).

Here is the Federal government spending surge that helped generate the highest inflation in a generation.

So while the op-ed author blames inflation solely on The Federal Reserve, The Fed was unable to achieve its inflation goal for much of the post-financial crisis period. It was the double whammy of Fed monetary stimulus + Federal government stimulus (spending) that pushed inflation to 6.8%.

Following Paul Harvey’s “The Rest of the Story,” I choose baseball player Whammy Douglas to represent the double whammy of Fed + Fed government stimulus to produce inflation. THAT is the rest of the story.

Throw in the Biden Administration’s war on fossil fuels (driving up energy costs by over 50%) and we have a TRIPLE WHAMMY!!

The WSJ op-ed author was focused only blaming The Fed. Sorry, it was a Double Whammy.

Psst! US Inflation Is REALLY >11% YoY (Not The Stated 6.9% YoY)

Earlier today I wrote about the horrible November Consumer Price Index (CPI) print of 6.9% YoY.

But that 6.9% YoY is very misleading because of the strange way the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the largest asset in most households’ expenditures: housing.

The BLS measures inflation in housing using the Shelter measurement. Which was only 3.88% YoY. The problem is that the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was 19.52% in its last reading. That is quite a discrepancy.

So, if we substitute the Case-Shiller National home price index for the CPI Shelter, we get an inflation rate of greater than 11%.

And with the Zillow Rent for all homes index growing at 11.2%, this feels more like we are being hit over the head with. Or like trying to eat raw oyster stew … when the oyster fight back.

Here is a video of The Federal Reserve and the Biden Administration trying to control inflation.

Real Wage Growth Falls To -1.9% As Inflation Rises To 6.8% In November (Taylor Rule Rate Rises To 16.94% While Fed Remains At 0.25%)

Inflation keeps rising and consumers keep getting hurt. No wonder President Biden’s team sent out a media splash asking them to put a smile on that face and hype the economic recovery.

Real wage growth fell to -1.9% YoY in the latest Consumer Price release. As The Fed keeps its massive foot on the monetary gas pedal.

The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.8% YoY.

The biggest gains in Consumer Prices were for energy with gasoline rising 58.1% YoY. But almost nothing was spared the rod of government policies.

Core inflation (CPI – energy – food) rose to 4.9% YoY, the highest since 1991.

The Taylor Rule, what The Fed Funds Target rate SHOULD be, rose to 16.94%. Versus the current rate of 0.25%. Its as if The Fed Open Market Committee is watching Tik-Tok instead of the economic numbers.

Inflation Near 40-Year High Shocks Americans, Spooks Washington (As Largest Wealth Redistribution In US History Occurs … Towards The 1%)

The U.S. is poised to enter Year Three of the pandemic with both a booming economy and a still-mutating virus. But for Washington and Wall Street, one Covid aftershock is starting to eclipse almost everything else.

Already-hot inflation is forecast to climb even further when November data comes out on Friday, to 6.8%. That would be the highest rate since Jimmy Carter was president in the early 1980s — and in the lifetimes of most Americans.

And the CPI change since last year, according to the Federal Reserve of St Louis FRED is a staggering 16.262%.

And with U.S. Jobless Claims plunge to 52-year low, its about time that The Fed begins removing the humongous monetary stimulus.

After all, largely thanks to Federal Reserve policies, we have seen the greatest wealth redistribution in US history … to the top 1%.

And away from the bottom 50%.

Way to go Federal Reserve!

S&P 500 REAL Earnings Yield At -2.33% While REAL Wage Growth At -1.43% (REAL 30Y Mortgage Rate At -3.11%) “Weird, Wacky Stuff!”

As Parks and Recreation’s Martin Housely said, “Weird, wacky stuff.”

We now have the S&P 500 REAL earnings yield at -2.33%.

REAL US average hourly wage growth is at -1.43% and the REAL 30-year mortgage rate is at -3.11%.

The cause of this weird and wacky economic stuff? How about the surge in M1 Money and The Fed Balance Sheet?

I can almost see Fed Chair Jerome Powell imitating Martin Housely and saying “Weird, wacky stuff” in his testimony before Congress.

Fed Talk,Talk! Mortgage Applications SURGE 56% WoW As Treasury Yields Tank (Purchase Apps Spike 28% WoW)

Despite the “Talk, Talk” from The Federal Reserve about balance sheet taper and rate “normalization,” we actually saw the 10-year Treasury yield fall from 1.6651% on 11/23/2021 to 1.343 on 12/3/2021. While the 30-year mortgage rate only fell from 3.31% to 3.3%, it is the SIGNAL that The Fed is sending that people should refinance their mortgages ASAP.

You can see the rise in mortgage refinancing applications of 56% week-over-week (WoW) (white line) with the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (blue line) despite the relatively small drop in the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) tiny drop in their 30-year mortgage rate index.

Ditto for the MBA mortgage purchase application index. The drop in the US Treasury yield (blue line) resulted in a 28% WoW increase in mortgage purchase applications.

Here is the table of MBA data for the week of 12/03.

Please note that the 10-year Treasury yield have jumped since 12/03 indicating that mortgage application activity for the week of 12/10 will be lower.

Here is the MOVE bond volatility index and the US Treasury 10-yield chart. Can you spot the COVID outbreak??

Here is a video of Fed Chair Jay Powell doing “Talk, talk” about tapering.

US Unit Labor Costs SOAR 9.60% QoQ As Labor Productivity DECLINES 5.20% QoQ (Worst Since 1960)

If this what the Biden Administration had in mind? Soaring labor costs at the same time that labor productivity is falling to its lowest level since 1960?

Powell and the Gang’s monetary approach doesn’t seem to be working for the labor market …

But is working extremely well for asset prices.

Wall Street parties while Main Street suffers worst decline in productivity since 1960.

Alarm! Treasury Dealer Short Positions Another Red Flag for Liquidity As Stock Market Surges On Realization The Fed May NOT Taper (And Fausti Oversold Omicron Threat)

Alarm!

(Bloomberg) — The recent drop in primary-dealer holdings of front-end Treasuries is another warning of potential market dislocation heading into the year-end liquidity vacuum.

As of Nov. 24, primary dealers — which are mostly the large banks — were on the whole betting against two- to three-year Treasuries rather than buying. They had net short positions of just over $9 million, near the most bearish levels since 2017, signaling a pullback by buyers that provide crucial liquidity for older Treasury issues.

The positioning in the front-end of the curve “suggest less demand from the dealer community to fund off-the-run long positions,” Barclays strategists Anshul Pradhan and Andres Mok say in a Dec. 3 note. Off-the-run Treasuries are notes and bonds created in past years and traded less frequently than the newest issues; they’re the biggest part of the market and make up most of the Federal Reserve’s daily asset purchases, which are being scaled back.

Short positioning increased on a relative basis as a result, “which may also have crowded demand to borrow particular issues over others,” the analysts wrote.

Those forces together could contribute to an increase in market dislocations.

Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot shocked financial markets. A week later, stocks are higher.
The S&P 500 staged its biggest rally since March to wipe out losses from the past week. The speculative fringe that was a smoldering wreck Friday was soaring Tuesday. An index of meme stocks rallied more than 4%, while one composed of airlines added 1.6%. A gauge of newly public companies advanced more than 4%, SPACs jumped more than 2% and even cryptocurrencies rallied, with Bitcoin powering back above $51,000.

It’s a stunning about-face for risk assets that went into a tail spin after the Federal Reserve chair suggested he favored accelerating the removal of monetary support. What follows are takes from market-watchers on why the market is looking past the Fed’s potential change in policy.

Also, the realization that Fausti was chicken-little and Omicron is not the planet killer.

Or could it be that with China easing, the US will be forced NOT to taper. Or taper only ever-so-slightly.

With the Dow up another 500+ points, it looks like no one is taking Powell and the Gang seriously about tapering. Or Fausti for that matter.

NIAID Director Anthony Fausti.