Bidenomics! Wheels Come Off The “Strong Jobs” Myth As Job Openings Drop To 2 year Low (Number Of Hires And Quits Plunge As Fed Withdraws Monetary Stimulus)

The wheels are coming off the Bidenomics recovery.

US job openings (JOLTS) keep declining as The Fed withdraws its Covid sugar splash of monetary stimulus and raise The Fed’s target rate.

For those enthralled by the narrative that AI will cause a margin-busting corporate revolution as millions of well-paid, middle-management employees are replaced by a cheap “bullshitting” AI algo, then today’s latest JOLTS report may come as a bigger shock than the big drop in job openings from one month ago. That’s because after unexpectedly dumping by 496K in May (a number which has been revised far worse of course), the BLS just reported that in June the number of job openings was practically unchanged, dropping by just 34K, to 9.582MM from a downward revised 9.616 million. And while the monthly change was modest after the downward revision of course, the total was dragged to the lowest level since April 2021.

The number was about 1.4 million below the 11 million from a year ago and below the consensus estimate of 9.6 million, a rare miss in a series which has been best known for decisively beating Wall Street’s expectations.

According to the BLS, the largest increases in job openings was in health care and social assistance (+136,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+62,000). Job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-78,000), state and local government education (-29,000), and federal government (-21,000)

The slide in the number of job openings meant that after rising to the highest since January 2023 in April, in June the number of job openings was just 3.7625 million more than the number of unemployed workers, the lowest since Sept 2021.

Said otherwise, after rising to 1.82 openings for every worker in April, in June the number dropped to just 1.61, which would have been the lowest level since Oct 2021 if it weren’t for last month’s sharp downward revision.

Yet even as the number of job openings dropped only modestly from the (sharply) downward revised print for May (because under Biden, no number is ever revised stronger), conflicting data remained and in June, the number of people quitting their jobs – an indicator traditionally associated with labor market strength as it shows workers are confident they can find a better wage elsewhere – unexpectedly tumbled by 295K to just 3.772MM, the biggest monthly drop since May 2021.

According to the BLS, the number of quits decreased in several industries, with the largest decreases in retail trade (-95,000), health care and social assistance (-75,000), and construction (-51,000). The number of quits increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+20,000).

And just in case some still believe Biden’s strong jobs lie, the number of hires also tumbled in June, crashing by 326K – the biggest monthly drop since July 2020…

… to 5.905MM, the lowest since February 2021.

Of course, as we have explained on multiple occasions previously, none of the above data actually matters or is credible for the simple reason that the response rate of the JOLTS survey is stuck at a record low 31.2%. Which means that only those who actually have job openings to report do so, while two-thirds of employers are either non-responsive or their mail is quietly lost in the mail.

Wheels. Of massive corruption and debauchery.

Why US Inflation Will Start Rising Again (WTI Crude Futures UP Above $80 Again As Gasoline Futures UP 91.5% Under Bidenomics)

Joe Biden said that Republicans will impeach him in the House of Representatives since inflation is coming down. Huh? No Joe, it is because your are the most corrupt President in history, a compulsive liar and your economic policies are pure World Economic Forum mandates (open borders, Central Bank Digital currency, green energy, etc). Biden started off his Presidency by declaring war on fossil fuels that helped drive prices through the roof. And the middle class are paying the price.

But as inflation cools (blue line) thanks in part to Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (orange line), Biden can gloat. But remember, gasoline prices remain 56% higher under Biden’s Reign of Error. Even worse, gasoline FUTURES are up 91.5% under Biden. Yikes!

But look at how gasoline prices and gasoline futures have risen in July (pink circle). The last inflation report showed that inflation has declined to 3% (still higher than The Fed’s 2% target), gasoline prices are up almost 5% since July 19, 2023.

Gasoline, meanwhile, started the year at less than $2.50 per gallon. This week, gasoline topped $2.90 per gallon and may yet reach $3.

WTI Crude Oil futures have broken through the $80 barrier … again. Heating oil futures are up 1.43% today with WTI Crude futures up 0.61%.

So as energy prices keep rising (and Biden’s EPA keeps issuing green energy edicts and fails to recognize that our power grid can’t support all the electric cars and trucks envisioned by the Obama/Biden green dreamers). As such, energy prices will keep rising and with it … inflation.

CRE Fire! Office Valuations Plummet As Fed Raises Rates To Fight Inflation (US Gross Domestic Income YoY Fell To -0.8% In Q1, NOT A Good Sign!)

Commercial real estate (CRE), particularly office space, reminds me of the Arthur Brown tune “Fire!” except that Jerome Powell of The Federal Reserve is the God of Hellfire! While fighting inflation caused by … The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending (aka, Bidenomics). Call this the Over, Under, Sideways Down economy. The top 1% are doing quite well, while the lower 50% of net worth households are struggling.

The Q1 2023 NCREIF Office property (value) index shows declining office value since Q2 2022 as The Fed began raising its target rate to combat inflation.

From Trepp, we have this shocking table showing the decline the average total value loss over the span of around a decade. The oldest buildings experienced the largest reduction in value of 60%, and the newest experienced the least (but quite substantial) reduction of 52%. Although the newest buildings performed the best relatively, their 52% value reduction is easily the most concerning, and displays truly how much distress is present in the office sector. This group has the highest percentage of Class A buildings, but its reduction value over the past decade is still approximately on par with buildings constructed over half a century prior. With north of $150 billion in securitized maturities beyond 2023, these trends set a gloomy tone for their future and the performance of office properties as a whole.

Then we have this alarming headline from Trepp: “Commercial Mortgage Sector Faces Another Wall of Maturities as $2.75 Trillion Rolls by 2027.” An estimated $528.7 billion of commercial mortgages mature this year, according to Trepp data, which projects that next year, maturities will increase to $532.8 billion. The projections are based on data for the first quarter compiled using the Federal Reserve’s flow of funds and made various assumptions regarding loan terms for each of the major lender categories. The data would indicate that the market is facing a wall, if not a mountain of maturities that would make the 2015-2017 wall of maturities look almost inconsequential. During that period, roughly $1.1 trillion of loans were scheduled to come due. But attention was focused on the CMBS market, as more than $335 billion of loans were set to mature during the period.

Well, REAL gross domestic income fell -0.8% YoY in Q1 2023 as M2 Money growth crashes. Not a good sign for the US economy or commercial real estate.

Here is the Trepp Report on declining office values.

Of course, office properties are suffering from almost out-of-control crime in major American cities and the desire of workers to work from home rather than commute to work in cubicles.

But never fear! We have massively corrupt and compulsive liar Joe Biden as President!! He is the President of The 1%! Not the other 99%.

Call him Deep State Joe! The bully from Delaware.

Bidenomics In One Chart! Bidenomics Benefits The Elites (Top 1%) Far More Than The Common Man (Bottom 50%) In Terms Of Net Worth (Bank Credit Growth Crashing To Earth)

I wanted to play Aaron Copland’s Fanfare For The Common Man, but thought that The Federal Reserve theme song (laughing song from “Death in Venice”) was more appropriate given their insane money printing since 2008 then 2020 with Covid. Yes, The Fed is laughing at us.

Bidenomics, massive spending on green energy mandates while curbing fossil fuel consumption, has been a true wonder for the top 1% of net worth (let’s call them The Elites). And Bidenomics, like Obamanomics, relied on super generous Federal Reserve money printing.

The result? Total Net Worth held by the top 1% has grown rapidly since the Covid outbreak and Fed monetary expansion (plus Congress going wild spending). The bottom 50%? They improved in terms of net worth

So, The Elites (top 1%) want The Fed to keep on printing money, since their net worth soars.

Meanwhile, US bank credit is crashing as The Fed slows M2 Money growth.

Not only is credit growth grinding to a halt, but unrealized losses on bank investment securities continues to worsen.

If you didn’t see this, then check out House testimony of extraterrestrial visitations to Earth. This has been happening since the 1950s (allegedly), so why NOW is there sudden interest in aliens? Deflection away from the horrible scandal of Biden taking money from foreign actors? Likely answer? Biden and Mayorkas will send Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to negotiate with alien invaders giving them anmesty, free school, free food, free healthcare and directions on how to register to vote. And giving aliens preferential trade status. All for “10% for The Big Guy!”

Bidenomics? Orange Juice Futures UP 192% Under Biden, Frozen OJ Up 40% Under Biden’s Reign Of Error (Even Fed Printing Debacle Can’t Fix This Problem)

I love orange juice! Unfortnately, as a diabetic, OJ is off limits. So I have to watch others drink one of my favorite beverages.

But like everything else under Bidenomics, orange juice is far more expensive.

Orange juice futures, the subject of the comedy “Trading Places,” are up 192% under Biden’s Reign of (Economic) Error. And frozen OJ is up 40%.

Sorry Joe, The Federal Reserve can’t print its way out your horrible economic grand plans.

Regular gasoline prices are soaring … again. And are now up 55% under Bidenomics.

On that surprising GDP report, we saw the 10-year Treasury yield spike to almost 4%.

Speaking of oranges and Florida sunshine …

Is That All There Is? US Avoids Recession As Real GDP Rises 2.4% In Q2 As Debt-To-GDP Hits 124% (10Y-2Y Curve Rises To … -97.952 BPS)

As Peggy Lee warbled, “Is that all there is?”

Both The Federal government and Federal Reserve went wild with stimulus surrounding the Covid economic shutdown in 2020. The excessive reaction function is still working its way through the economy and we finally got Q2 Real GDP QoQ of 2.4%! But seriously, is that all we got from an increase in public debt of 39% since January 2020, and M2 Money increased 36%. And, of course, The Federal Reserve double their balance sheet from 2020 to today … and are slow walking its removal. So, with Biden’s insane green spending and Powell’s monetary stimulytpo, all we got was 2.1% Real GDP growth YoY??

And US public debt to GDP is now over 120%, thanks in part to Federal spending and Fed monetary stimulus related to the Covid economic shutdowns.

Foul Powell on the prowl.

US New Home Sales Fall -2.5% MoM In June To 697k Units Sold (Thank The Fed For 23.8% YoY Growth!)

New home sales in June fell -2.5% from May to June to 697k units sold. But on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, new home sales are up 23.8%. Thanks largely to The Federal Reserve slow walking the shrinking of their massive balance sheet.

Too much monetary stimulus and The Fed’s failure to remove the Covid stimulus is now hitting new home sales.

Biden’s Mortgage Market! Mortgage Demand Falls 1.8 Since Last Week, Purchase Mortgage Demand Down -49% Since April 2021, Refi Mortgage Demand Down -87% As Mortgage Rates Up 115% (Hurts So Bad?)

Biden loves to brag about Bidenomics, or should I say selective stats like the labor market. But the mortgage market hurts so bad.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 21, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index 1.5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.4 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Since April 2021, purchase mortgage demand is down -49%, refi mortgage demand is down -87% as mortgage rates are up 115%.

KJP “Hurts So Good” Presser: Prices UP 16.6% And Real Wages Down -3% Since Biden Took Office (Food UP 56%, Gasoline UP 52%, Mortgage Rates UP 153%) Hurt So Good???

Biden Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “The American people are beginning to feel Bidenomics”

Prices are up 16.6% and real wages are down 3% since Biden took office.

Well, at least Jean-Pierre didn’t claim like her boss Joe Biden claimed that he “ended cancer as we know it.”

But getting back to Jean-Pierre’s claim that “The American people are beginning to feel Bidenomics.” She is right (for once). Americans are REALLY feeling Bidenomics. And it hurts SO BAD!!!

What hurts so bad? Food (CRB Foodstuffs) are up 56% under Bidenomics. Real weekly wage growth is down -90% since Biden assumed office. Regular gas prices are up 52%. And the 30Y mortgage rate is up a staggering 153%. Yes, Karine, this hurts so bad!

While real wages are down -3% under Biden and the real average weekly wage growth is down -90%. That REALLY hurts so good.

But Biden and KJP think that Bidenomics “hurts so good.”

A video of Bidenomics.

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Slows To -0.46% YoY As Fed Withdraws Covid Stimulus SLOWLY (Mortgage Rates UP 151% Under Bidenomics, Taylor Rule Suggests Fed Rate Of 10.42%)

The Case-Shiller home price numbers are out for May. The national home price index is down -0.46% YoY as The Fed slows M2 Money growth into negative growth territory. No doubt Biden (and Karine Jean-Pierre) will take credit for slowing home price growth, although The Federal Reserve slowing monetary stimulus is mostly responsible.

The Fed is still slow walking shrinking its enormous balance sheet. Although The Fed is cranking up their target rate.

The Taylor Rule suggests a 10.42 target rate to cool inflation. They are only half way there!!!