Will “Animal Spirits” Force “Dovish Trifecta” Off-Course? (Will The Fed Misread Soaring Stock Market And Make Yet ANOTHER Policy Error??)

It smells like … ANIMAL spirits.

The last week or so has seen a tactical ‘hawkish’ reversion in USTs and STIRs to play for a re-pricing lower in March rate-cut expectations, following the recent ‘hard-data resiliency’ with Consumer and Labor, alongside modestly “hawkish” rhetoric (despite soft data weakness)…

And, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott highlights this morning, we are also seeing new upside being bot in SOFR Options for “dovish outcome”-hedging again, with Core PCE looming later this week.The market has had bunches of March SOFR Downside structures trading over the past few weeks to play for “Fed cut overshoot,” which has been the right trade YTD, as the implied probability distribution shows March Fed cuts now having been slashed by over half the the past week and a half (~80% priced to now just ~40%), and accordingly now we’ve witnessed some monetization of tactical Downside in recent days…

And we see the swaption surface getting mushed…

As he notes, the “dovish-trifecta” right-tail repricing has gotten us to ~4900… and, he says, the actual “realization” could then certainly push us through 5000:It’s my expectations that we could very well see:1) “March Fed cut” to pick-up Delta again after what is expected to be a “light” core PCE print this Friday…and taking back pricing following the past week’s Fed speak pushback and “too resilient” Labor- and Consumer- data, which has driven March Fed meeting “cut” probabilities being sliced in half over the past one week (~80% on 1/12/24 to today’s ~40%)The next potential dovish catalyst is 2) the QRA est / announcement end of Jan / start Feb, with “binary risk” implications on the direction of Duration and Risk-Assets, as the market generally anticipates resumption of larger Coupon issuance from the US Treasury ahead—but what if there is one final announcement where Bills stay high, Coupon increases but isn’t as large as most anticipate, AND Yellen signals that this is the final expected Coupon increase?!

While we’re at it and relate to the Treasury’s QRA discussion, let’s not forget the “other” market- and economic- backstop being applied by the Biden Administration (and aided by what looks to be Janet Yellen’s “politically activist” US Treasury with TBAC sign-off) – which is the continued willingness to run large fiscal deficits in an attempt to “run the economy hot” in this election year, with much of it being “paid for” via Bills (so to prevent long-end Rates from pushing higher, which would tighten US financial conditions)……this is Green build, CHIPS Act, and even fresh “election surprises” like Biden announcement Friday on “forgiveness” of a fresh $5B of student loans, now making the total loan forgiveness approved by the Biden admin $136.6B

And finally as a derivative of the above mention, another hypothetical Treasury QRA where we’d see “Bill issuance remaining high, yet with Coupon increases not as large as most anticipate” would then mechnically see MMF’s continuing pulling from RRP to buy Bills, which will further accelerate the RRP drain…and as outlined in recent weeks, “low” RRP levels will act as “a” key input to Fed reaction function on determining LCLoR……which will ultimately mean 3) a pulling-forward on the market’s expected timing on the “end of QT”

This “dovish-trifecta” is the macro catalyst behind the “right-tail” scenario which has appropriately been repriced higher by the market over the course of the past month, and we’ve seen clients allocate some protection spend to this “crash-UP” scenarioAnd again, IF the above were to realize… without negative catalysts (Earnings fine, no further Rates selloff / Fed repricing, continued disinflationary trajectory rebuilds “Fed cut” implied probability) around that upcoming Feb VIXpery with all that Dealer “short VIX Calls” positioning being hedged… there is absolutely potential for an Equities slingshot if there are no issues and those customer “Long VIX Calls” bleed-out, which will mean Dealers puke out their UX1 Longs (as hedges) back into the market for a potential “kicker” to goose Spot Equities even higher…For now, no-one is worried about downside based on VVIX being back near post-COVID lows…

So what then is the largest DOWNSIDE RISK to Equities? 

Outside of “Mag 7” guidance disappointments, I believe the next worst-case scenario for current positioning in Stocks would be an “Animal Spirits” US data reacceleration which forces the above “dovish trifecta” off-course and blows-out the recently calming “Fed Rates path” distribution again:Why would resumption of better US growth data negatively impact US Equities consensus thematic / singles positioning?Because after the 4Q23 de-grossing of short books and forced “Net-up” to stop the bleed and chase (massive squeeze & cover in low quality / cyclical value / leveraged balance sheet / high short interest “junk”)….2024 YTD has instead seen the market reset the prior “Momentum” regime of “Long Quality / Size / Secular Growth” i.e. MegaCap Tech, while re-shorting that economically-sensitive “low quality / junk” stuff againIn a world of slowing but positive growth to 2% GDP and now with 3m inflation annualizing sub 2% target…you go back to that “QE of old” 2010s -decade playbook of “long stuff that can grow earnings and profits without needing a hot economic cycle”…i.e. long quality, size (liquid) & secular growth / short leverage & cyclical valueBut IF we see the “animal spirits” data reacceleration off the back of the massive FCI easing that the Fed and Treasury have facilitated, plus the persistent wage growth and still too strong labor meaning consumption remains robust, along with ongoing govt fiscal stim / spending…

.

..we risk a chance of inflation pivoting away from the current disinflationary trajectory (God-forbid actual “reflation”) which would could see that “long secular growth / short econ sensitive / cyclical value’ trade get a shock reversal…

…as long-end Yields and accordingly then, financial conditions, re-tighten and smash the “high valuation” Quality / Secular Growth stuff, while the heavily hated / shorted Cyclicals would painfully squeeze higher.Don’t forget, we’ve seen that happen before (yes we know the magnitudes of the inflationary impulse are different, but the timing of the human-emotion/monetary-policy-over-confidence double-rip in inflation is unquestionable)…

So, be careful what you wish for from higher and higher all-time-highs for stocks – the stronger they look (on the back of dovish expectations), the more likely The Fed is to hold back the actual dovish actions so much hope is founded on.

Bailout Part Deux? Prepare For “Very Ugly” Two Years Of CRE Turmoil With $2.5 Trillion In CRE Debt Maturing In Next 5 Years

Remember the massive bank bailout of “subprime” mortgage securities back that resulted in the Dodd-Frank banking legislation of 2010? Yes know, where they promised NO MORE BANK BAILOUTS EVER??? Particularly if Disease X is unleashed and we start shutting down economies and schools again. Will we see ANOTHER bank bailout??

Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick spoke with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on the sidelines at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week. He offered a bleak outlook on the commercial real estate sector, warning a “very ugly” two years is ahead. 

“Coming due in the next two and a half years at these higher rates – you’re not going to get proceeds, meaning when you have a $120 million loan on a building, and someone says I’ll give you 90 million at a much higher rate – than it throws the keys back to the lenders – and there’s going to be a lot of them that are going to get wiped out,” Lutnick told Bartiromo.

“I think $700 billion could default … The lenders are going to have to do things with them. They’re going to be selling. It’s going to be a generational change in real estate coming at the end of 2024 and all of 2025. We will be talking about real estate being just a massive change,” Lutnick said.

He warned: “I think it’s going to be a very, very ugly market in owning real estate over the next, you know, 18 months, two years.” 

Lutnick noted that loan sales are set to become a major business opportunity with the upcoming maturity of CRE mortgages. He highlighted that an estimated trillion dollars of CRE debt is coming due over the next 2.5 years.  

Shortly after the regional bank implosion in March 2023, Morgan Stanley penned a note to clients about a $2.5 trillion wall of CRE debt coming due over five years. 

A recent survey of Terminal users by Bloomberg’s Markets Live found most respondents believe the office tower market needs a deeper correction before a rebound materializes. 

Lutnick pointed out, “Real estate equity, REITS, are going to be in trouble … a lot of them are going to be wiped out, so many defaults, I think.” 

Bloomberg office REITs have been plunging since early 2022 when the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in a generation to tame inflation. 

“Commercial real estate is experiencing a meaningful repricing as cap rates correlate to long-term to interest rates,” Morgan Stanley told clients in a recent report, adding, “Patience is required while refinancing to higher debt costs gradually triggers valuation adjustments.” 

Lutnick’s not the only one with a dismal outlook on CRE. 

In a recent interview, Scott Rechler, Chairman and CEO of RXR Realty, told Goldman’s Allison Nathan that the CRE downturn is still in the early innings

2024—America’s Year of Living Dangerously (10% For The Big Guy Biden As Likely Lame Duck President)

Victor Davis Hansen says it best! 2024—America’s Year of Living Dangerously. With “10% For The Big Guy” Biden as likely lame duck President.

Lame-duck presidencies, especially in the last six months of their final term, in general can offer opportunities for America’s enemies to take advantage of a perceived vacuum as one government transitions to the next.

But these normal changeover months are especially dangerous when a perceived weak or appeasing lame-duck president is likely to be replaced by a strong deterrent successor that will likely serve as a corrective to his disastrous policies.

James Buchannan (1857-1861), a northern but pro-South president, was a particularly anemic chief executive. He had done little if anything to try to deal with the growing rift between North and South, especially the furor over the Dred Scott decision and Bloody Kansas. Even when warned, Buchannan did little to beef up the U.S. Army or increase its weapon stockpiles to deter any potential secessionist state.

After Buchannan declined to run for a second term, the South understood that the abolitionist and anti-slavery Republican candidate Abraham Lincoln might well be elected in 1860—given the North/South split within the Democratic Party. And they understood that President Lincoln might well use force to stop secession.

Therefore, in the waning days of the Buchannan administration, after Lincoln’s victory, seven southern states seceded during the presidential transition, a confused North reacted little, more would follow, and a terrible Civil War became inevitable.

During the waning days of the crippled second term of Richard Nixon in summer 1974, communist North Vietnam saw a once deterrent president fatally weakened by Watergate. It was encouraged by a renewed antiwar movement, a likely soon anti-war Congress, and the next president, Gerald Ford—a probable caretaker soon to be replaced by an anti-war Democrat. And so in late 1974 and 1975, the communists renounced ignored peace accords, judged correctly that the directionless US would not help South Vietnam stop a massive invasion from the North, and thereby won the 12-year-long war.

As the Jimmy Carter administration began to wind down and as it was increasingly judged as weak abroad, the new theocratic revolutionary government in Iran stormed the U.S. embassy and took hostages in November 1979. Throughout the next year, Tehran systematically humiliated the U.S., mocked an impotent Carter administration, and rebuffed all U.S. efforts to secure the return of the hostages.

The Soviet Union as well saw the dying and still inert Carter term as ripe for exploitation and so invaded Afghanistan a month later, in December 1979. It too concluded that there would be a year of continued timidity in Washington before a likely remedy from a Republican president—in this case, Ronald Reagan, who had declared his candidacy a little over a week after Iran took hostages with clear promises to restore U.S. deterrence abroad.

We are now once again entering one of these dangerous moments, compounded by a weakening of the armed forces. During Biden’s tenure, the U.S. military has suffered historic shortfalls in recruitment, the disastrous humiliation in Afghanistan, a new DEI commissariat that wars on meritocratic promotions and assignments, the politicization of generals and admirals, the hyped but otherwise inane effort to root out mythical white supremacists and “domestic terrorist” bogeymen from the ranks, and the expulsion of some of our best soldiers for their reluctance to be vaccinated, many of them having developed natural immunity from prior infection.

The Pentagon is short on ships and planes. U.S. weapons stocks are dangerously low, drained by the abandonment of billions of dollars of equipment to the Taliban, the resupply efforts to Ukraine and Israel, the failure of the Biden administration to fund the restocking of our munitions and to ramp up resupply production—and a $35 billion national debt fed by $2 trillion annual deficits.

Add eight million illegal aliens who pranced over a nonexistent southern border, nearly uninhabitable big-city downtowns, an epidemic of violent crime, and a president who resuscitates mostly to blast half the country as “semi-fascists” and “ultra-MAGA” extremists.

Add it all up, and the world abroad agrees America is in a strange, self-inflicted decline and will not or cannot defend its interests, or for that matter itself.

In particular, both enemies and neutrals have accordingly drawn a number of self-interested conclusions about the waning Biden administration and what may follow:

  1. That Joe Biden, to their apparent delight, has in the last three years reversed the Trump deterrence policies and thus has green-lit their aggressions.
  2. That given the ensuing chaos, they have further agreed that Biden’s growing unpopularity with the American people makes it likely that both he and his appeasement policies will be gone by January 2024.
  3. That Donald Trump may well return to office. That would mean a much worse deal for Russia, China, Iran, and its terrorist satellites, and thus recognition that 2024 is a brief window of opportunity for aggression.

Putin remembers that Trump blasted 200 Russian mercenaries in Syria, got out of a bad missile deal with Moscow, upped sanctions on Russian oligarchs, flooded the world with cheap oil, destroying Russian oil export profits, sold once-canceled offensive weapons to Ukraine, and warned what would happen if Putin invaded Ukraine. Of the last four administrations, Trump’s was the only one that saw no Russian cross-border invasions.

China remembers that Trump slapped tariffs on its mercantilist market economy, accused China of birthing the COVID virus at its Wuhan virology lab, increased military spending, forced NATO to spend another $100 billion on munitions, and jawboned more alliance members into upping their military contributions. Beijing knew that to send a spy balloon across the continental United States between 2017-21 would have meant its destruction the minute it entered U.S. airspace. China did not serially threaten Taiwan during the Trump era—and may believe that this year could be the last chance in a decade to confront Taiwan.

Iran has concluded two things about 2024: 1) they do not wish to see another Trump presidency on the horizon that took out its top-ranking terrorist-general Qasem Soleimani, slapped sanctions on its oil, yanked the U.S. out of the flawed Iran Deal, declared the Iranian Houthi satellites a foreign terrorist organization, cut off all aid to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, moved the U.S. closer to Israel, and warned Hezbollah of consequences should it start a war with Israel; and 2) that the present Biden abdication will likely be short-lived and thus now may be the time to take advantage of a currently directionless global superpower that either will not or cannot deter Iranian aggression.

So what should we expect in 2024? Lacking a strong U.S. patron and sponsor, Israel will be subject to more international calls to leave Gaza, to negotiate with Hamas, and to give up the idea it can “destroy” Hamas.

Hezbollah will likely up its daily barrage of missiles into Israel.

Iran will become more overt in supplying Russia, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis with weapons.

China will increase its threats to Taiwan and weigh carefully the costs-to-benefits of attacking the island.

The common denominator? All our enemies are right now calculating how best to use their gift of the next 12 months from a non-compos-mentis president and his neo-socialist team that either believes the U.S. is at fault for much of the world’s pathologies or is too terrified to do anything about them.

In sum, adversaries believe there is a rare window of opportunity in which the U.S. uncharacteristically does nothing to deter its enemies, back its allies, or win over neutrals. And over the next year, we can only pray they are mistaken.

If Biden loses to Trump in November …

Bleeding Economic Indicator? Conference Board LEI Fell 0.1% In December, Down -6.9% YoY (Annual Growth Rate Remains DEEPLY Negative)

Not exactly the economic report that the Biden Administration and The Federal Reserve were hoping for. To quote The Rolling Stones, “You can’t always get what you want.” Actually, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is more of a BLEEDING economic indicator as we enter 2024.

NEW YORK, Jan. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.

“The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.”

The annual growth rate of the LEI remains deeply negative.

On an annual basis (YoY), the LEI is down -6.9%.

Am I surprised that the LEI is bleeding so badly? Not with “Vacation Joe” Biden at the helm! Or his eloquent Climate Envoy John Kerry!

Zelensky Lashes Out At Trump Over ‘Very Dangerous’ Plan To End Billions For His Family And Friends

Joe Biden is the candyman for Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has lashed out at former President Trump over his Ukraine stance and recent rhetoric, particularly the GOP presidential front-runner’s claim that he can negotiate peace between Kiev and Moscow within 24 hours. This terrifies Zelensky since his family and friends are addicted to the billions of dollars sent by Biden, Pelosi and Schumer. And crazed warhawks like Icki Haley.

Trump’s persistent statements saying he would intercede diplomatically and end the war has been met with mockery among top Ukrainian officials. Zelensky in a fresh interview with UK’s Channel 4 News has called Trump’s rhetoric “very dangerous”Primarily since Zelensky and his family/friends are gorging like hogs at a trough over Biden’s Billions.

“Donald Trump, I invite you to Ukraine, to Kyiv. If you can stop the war during 24 hours, I think it will be enough to come,” he said in the interview published Friday. And place deposit $50 in our checking account for more mansions.

“(Trump) is going to make decisions on his own, without … I’m not even talking about Russia, but without both sides, without us,” Zelensky continued. “If he says this publicly, that’s a little scary. I’ve seen a lot, a lot of victims, but that’s really making me a bit stressed.”

The Ukrainian leader added: “Because even if his idea (for ending the war) – that no one has heard yet – doesn’t work for us, for our people, he will do anything to implement his idea anyway. And this worries me a little.” It was within this context Zelensky followed by saying this is “very dangerous.”

Trump has repeatedly pledged while doing campaign rallies, “I will have it solved within one day, a peace between them.”

The Biden White House has so far resisted any serious efforts to get Moscow at the same table talking to the Ukrainian side, given that realistically it would involve having to make territorial concessions.

The US has only supported Zelensky’s plan, which demands that Russian troops immediately given up all seized territory in eastern Ukraine, relinquish Crimea, and pay war reparations to the Kiev government.

Zelensky and his top officials were at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos this past week pushing for more countries, and especially representatives of the Global South, to get behind the plan.

Last week, Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said that Kiev now believes it is crucial for China to be at the table for future talks on its peace formula. “China needs to be involved in talks to end the war with Russia,” the Ukrainian top representative said following diplomatic meetings related to the WEF. China remains the most influential Global South country widely viewed as squarely in Russia’s corner, having refused to rebuke Moscow or join Western-led sanctions after two years of the conflict.

That makes sense. Biden is a Chinese asset and will do what his bosses in Beijing order him to do. They don’t call him “Beijing Biden” for nothing!

Electric Boondoggle? Average Price Of Used Tesla Declined 18 Consecutive Month, Down -47%! (Only 6% Of Americans Want An EV)

Is the Obama, I mean Biden, Administration playing Electric Boogaloo? Or is it Electric Boondoggle?

The average price of a used Tesla has declined 18 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $35,844 today (-47%).

On January 11, I noted Hertz Is Selling 20,000 EVs Due to Lack of Customer Demand

Hertz is selling a third of its EVs globally, with 20,000 in the US and will use some of the money to buy more Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) gasoline-powered cars.

On January 18, I commented $2 Billion in Subsidies, Only 2 EV Stations Opened, the Holdup is Social Justice

In yet another example of Biden incompetence, the administration is setting up rules making it harder to deliver EV charging stations.

Like insects that the World Economic Forum wants us to eat (while Kerry, Gore, Klaus Schwab and other elites eat wagyu beef and slurp champagne in their private jets), people apparently don’t want to be forced into buying an EV. Only 6 Percent in the US want an EV for their Next Vehicle.

I will wager that Obama/Biden (not even including VP Harris since she has seemingly been disowned by O’Biden, wish that they could COMMAND EVs been bought. Look at China’s share of EVs: 33%!

Then we have this staggering waste of taxpayer money! Ashville NC’s $ million in electric buses sit broken and idle.

Finally, we have those idiotic green energy carbon “allowances.” So Taylor “Not so” Swift can jet to watch KC Chief’s tight end and stud Travis Kelce play football. Tons of carbon emmissions, but she is paying for it. Still polluting, but Feds get their piece of the action. Oh I see. Carbon allowances are essentially permission from the ruling class to fly.

Just play some accordian music to relax. Like “Cabbage rolls and coffee.” At least cabbage rolls and coffee don’t use meat, a no-no from the World Economic Forum.

Inconvenient Truths About Electric Vehicles (Expensive, Battery Woes, Few Charging Stations) Ford Cuts Lightning Production As Dealers Stuck With Unwanted EVs

Al Gore, former Clinton VP and Senator from Tennessee, has made millions of dollars from his hysterical film about global warning called “An Inconvenient Truth.” For that, Gore (undeservedly) won a Nobel Prize. Then again, Obama won a Nobel Prize for Peace then proceeded bombing people. You can’t make this stuff up.

Well, here are 8 inconvenient truths about electric vehicles that Globalist Democrats like Obama, Biden, Gore and Kerry have been hawking like carnival barkers.

  1. EVs are more expensive
  2. EVs are inconvenient for anyone who needs a public charger
  3. EVs are inconvenient for anyone who drives long distances
  4. Insurance costs are higher
  5. Maintenance costs are higher
  6. Repairs take longer and parts are in short supply
  7. Minor accidents can be very costly requiring a new battery
  8. Consumers don’t want the damn things and rightfully so

Then we find out that Ford loses $36,000 on each EV, and announced cuts in production of the Electric F-150 pickup trucks. Only government would try to force car manufacturers into producing a product that loses so much money per unit.

The price of a Ford F-150 Lightning starts at about $50,000 and is eligible for $7,500 in federal EV tax credits. Even with the tax credits, the price remains higher than the $34,000 base price of the gas-powered truck.

As a result, 3,900 auto dealers wrote a letter to President Biden, warning

“Electric vehicles are stacking up on our lots which is our best indicator of customer demand in the marketplace.”  

Plus, high auto loan rates and vehicle prices add to affordability concerns. Folks don’t want $1,000 payments for vehicles that come with “range anxiety.” Not to mention BATTERY anxiety.

$2 billion in subsidies, only 2 EV stations opened, the holdup is social justice. The FHWA issued a rule requiring that workers for most projects be certified by the electricians union, or another government-approved training program. States have also blasted the program for its lack of flexibility. Florida’s Transportation Department said projects were stifled by guidance that stations be 50 miles apart. Pennsylvania lamented restrictions on building stations with fewer than four charging ports. Half of the grant money is set aside for “disadvantaged communities that are marginalized by underinvestment,” which by the agency’s description includes Alaskan and Arizonan Indian tribes and urban parks and libraries.

Speaking of charging stations (or the lack thereof), there was the fiasco with EVs in Chicago with the polar vortez. While Tesla is the highest profile EV manufacturer, other EVs and hybrids were turned into frozen bricks when the electric batteries froze/degraded in the cold.

Then we have Hertz selling 20,000 EVs due to lack of customer demand.

Remember, Obama and his aging, demented sock puppet Joe Biden are profoundly pro-union and pro-idiotic woke policies. The EV push is mading made by the World Economic Formum who don’t even want you to own your own car and take mass transit (electric no doubt).

Why is the US government funding the anti-US WEF?? Why was SecState Antony Blinken attending the WEF in Davos where his plane broke down in the cold??

Confession: I own a hybrid car that had trouble starting due to the cold. Not to mention that the windshield wiper motor burned out while trying to wipe away the dusting of snow on the windshield. BUT it does have great acceleration!

And the scariest thing about EVs is that Biden apppointed a small town Mayor from South Bend Indiana to be Secretary of Transportation. Pete Buttigieg. Here is Mayor Pete in Ukraine visiting with Zelenskyy. WHY is our Transportation Secretarty in Ukraine?? Bagman for Biden’s Boodle??

Auto sales, mostly internal combustion engines (ICEs) are still growing. Just not EVs.

Not Feelin’ Alright! National Office Vacancy Rose To 19.6% In Q4 (Credit Card Delinquencies Near All-time High!)

The US office market is NOT feelin’ alright.

The national office vacancy rate rose to a record-breaking 19.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023, Moody’s Analytics said. That’s the largest quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2021, and larger than the 19.3% level reached twice in 40 years.

Credit card delinquencies are near all-time high as well.

And then we have Ford scaleing back all-electric F-150 Lightning production in response to weak customer demand. Ah, too much consumer debt and freezing temperatures, perfect storm for EVs.

The Bidenomics Roadmap! Existing Home Sales (4.09 million) Drop To Lowest Level Since 1995 (Lowest SAAR Since 2010)

American homebuyers are going down the road of Bidenomics and feeling bad. Is this the roadmap for the US??

Existing Home Sales fell 1.0% MoM in December, worse than the +0.3% expected, leaving sales down

Source: Bloomberg

Total Existing Home Sales in December 2023 were 3.78mm – the lowest SAAR since 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

But, on an annual basis, this is the worst year on record (back to at least 1995)..

Source: Bloomberg

“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.”

Existing Home Sales were flat in the Northeast, lower in the MidWest and the South, and up marginally in the West (driven by single-family-home sales as condo sales declined)…

Source: Bloomberg

Last month, the number of previously owned homes for sale dropped to 1 million, the lowest since March.

At the current sales pace, selling all the properties on the market would take 3.2 months.

Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight resale market.

That lack of inventory is helping to keep prices elevated.

The median selling price climbed 4.4% to $382,600 in December from a year ago, reflecting increases in all four regions. Prices hit a record of $389,800 in 2023.

Source: Bloomberg

But, with mortgage rates having tumbled (and given the lagged responses), are sales about to start rising again?

Source: Bloomberg

So The Fed managed to kill sales, collapse inventories, send home prices higher, destroying affordability… and now what is going to happen?

Is Bidenomics the Highway To Hell?

Who designed this photoshoot for an accordian band?? Not sure I want to have a party with this crew!

Biden Brags About Mortgage Rates Dropping In 2024 (Inside Info On Disease X?? Or Admission That The Economy Actually Sucks)

As only Clueless Joe can do, Biden brags about something that he has nothing to do with: falling mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates (30-year conforming rate) are up 392 basis points or a whopping 142% under Biden. Mortgage rates are down from the 2023 peak of 7.83% to 6.69% as of yesterday. One reason that mortgage rates are stable is that M2 Money GROWTH has been negative since the end of 2022.

Of course, it is The Federal Reserve acting to slow down inflation caused by excessive Federal government spending that is leading to mortgage rates declining, not Biden’s open border policy or his green agenda.

But for the future, does Biden know something that we don’t know? Like is Biden buying into the hypothetical Disease X (20 times worse than Covid) that was discussed in Davos at the World Economic Forum. If a major pandemic is unleashed (again) in the election year, The Fed would have to cut rates (again) to offset the damage done by another round of goverment economic shutdowns. Not to mention the shutting down of schools again.

Or did Biden just tell us that he knows the US economy is slipping and The Fed will come riding to the rescue of Biden (or Newsom or Michelle Obama) like in an old John Ford western with John Wayne. That would also lead to declining mortgage rates in 2024.

But all is not well in the banking sector. Use of Fed funding tool jumps most since April to fresh record: Banks borrowed record sum of $161.5bn from Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program, w/demand at $14.3bn climbing the most in 9 months as they piled into a reliable arbitrage trade just weeks ahead of its scheduled closure.

The availability of mortgage credit remains VERY TIGHT.

Whether its Disease X (unleashed The Kraken!) or just a slowing economy, The Fed (the master manipulator) will likely cut rates in 2024. Making mortgage rates come down.

And what is a dancing sandwich??