Alarm! REAL Average Hourly Earnings At -2.8% YoY In October, Negative Growth Since March 2021 (19 Straight Months Of Negative Earnings Growth!)

The inflation numbers are out for October and they still stink (headline inflation still sizzling at 7.7% YoY).

But the number that really irks me is … REAL average hourly earnings growth is at a horrifying -2.8% YoY because of Biden’s terrible policies (aka, Bidenflation).

Real average hourly earnings growth YoY has been negative since March 2021. That is 19 straight months of negative earnings growth under Biden/Pelosi/Schumer’s reign of error.

Overall, airfares are leading followed by gasoline and household energy.

So, Pennsylvania elects this guy to perpetuate Biden/Pelosi/Schumer’s awful policies?

Fed Is NOT Unwinding MBS, 30yr Mortgage Rate Falls To Under 7% (Will The Fed ACTUALLY Unwind Its Balance Sheet??)

Now that the midterm elections are over (except for counting of million of mail-in ballots, a massive moral hazard risk), President Biden has proclaimed that he isn’t changing any of his horrid policies. And apparently, neither is The Federal Reserve.

Despite the headlines that The Federal Reserve is rapidly downsizing its massive balance sheet of assets, The Fed is just letting their enormous holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) run off. That is, just letting MBS mature. So, The Fed’s System Open Market Holdings of Agency MBS has barely declined.

Here is the table of MBS run-off. The mass of MBS doesn’t start to mature until … 2039. It is Treasuries that are maturing.

So, The Fed is raising its target rate rapidly, although that is likely to reverse course in the first half of 2022.

Meanwhile, mortgage applications fall to lowest level since 1997 with Fed tightening.

“So Mr Bond…let me tell you my plan for global domination.”

US Mortgage Rates At 7.32%, Up 154% Under Biden (As Fed Fights Soaring Bidenflation)

Biden’s magic trick was to turn the economy into a train wreck.

Example? The 30-year mortgage rate was 2.88% on Biden’s inauguration day (January 20, 2021). They are now 7.32%, a 154% increase under Biden.

The US economy is suffering from knucklehead energy policies, reckless Federal spending and rampant inflation.

Here is Joe Biden doing economic magic tricks, turning a vibrant economy into an inflation-ravaged one.

And why I won’t watch of subscribe to Peacock.

Double Whammy! Mortgage Holders Lose $1.3 Trillion in Equity in Q3 As Price Correction Continues (Nationally, Homes Shed 2.6% of Value Over Past Three Months As Treasury Yield Curve Remains DEEPLY Inverted)

Yes, this is an economic double whammy!

First, according to Black Knight, US home values declined -2.6% over the past three months.

Second, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains near 1980s low.

There is a third whammy, rising utility costs (highest in a decade).

Yes, its a double whammy!

The US Midterm Election In One Chart (Hint: Republicans Favored As Inflation Soars, Biden Unpopular On Kitchen Table Issues)

Here is the US midterm election in one chart.

According to Real Clear Politics, the generic Republican polling data FAVORABLE (red line) is at 47.9% while Democrat polling data favorable polling data (yellow line) is at 45.4%, advantage Republicans.

Biden has been a disaster as President (energy mandates, Afghanistan debacle, endless funding of Ukraine, highest inflation in 40 years, and every time he opens his mouth. But it is the “kitchen table” issues where Biden is getting clobbered: inflation, rising gas, food and diesel prices. One Democrat Congressman, Sean Patrick Maloney, said “Let them eat Chef Boyradee.” I can’t believe how tone deaf some politicians can be.

Biden’s UNFAVORABLE polling numbers (orange line) are directly related to the US headline inflation rate. Inflation was 1.4% YoY when Biden became President and it is now 8.2% YoY (blue line).

And I don’t think Biden’s hateful rhetoric toward “MAGA Republicans” is helping him. I thought his set looked like the movie “Doom” with Duane “The Rock” Johnson and Karl Urban.

Next US Inflation Report After Midterm Elections Likely To Remain High (Projection For Headline Inflation = 7.9%, Core Inflation = 6.5%) As Diesel Prices UP 102% Under Biden And Inflation UP 486%

The US midterm elections are Tuesday. I was denied an absentee ballot for some reason, but I will get my disabled body over to the local precinct to cast my ballot.

Fortunately for Democrats, the next inflation report is not due out until November 10th. Because the forecast for the next inflation report is ugly.

Headline CPI YoY = 7.9%

Core CPI YoY = 6.5%

These numbers are slightly lower than the last inflation report, but Americans are still suffering mightily under Biden’s Reign of Error.

Diesel fuel prices, the lifeline of the food industry, is up 102% under Biden’s mandates with the inventory of diesel fuel down 36%.

Inflation is relentless like Jason from Halloween.

Inflation is UP 486% under Inflation Joe, The Bully of DC.

I am going for a few Tequila shots on Wednesday.

MMT Alert! US Debt At $10.7 Trillion In Q4 2008, Now At $30.6 Trillion, +186% In 14 Years (M2 Money UP +162.5%) US Unfunded Liabilities At $172.4 TRILLION!

Ever since the financial crisis of 2008 and the election of President Obama and a Democrat Congressional sweep, the US has embraced Modern Monetary Theory (MMT or borrow, print and spend without consequence). And between the financial crisis and the Covid crisis of 2008, we have seen an increase in US public debt from $10.7 trillion in Q4 2008 to a staggering $30.6 trillion as of Q2 2022. That is a staggering increase of 186% in only 14 years.

How about US Money stock? M2 Money stock has grown by 162.5% since the beginning of 2009 and the “Blue Wave” of 2008. And nothing has been the same.

The Covid outbreak in early 2020, we saw Fed money printing that has never seen before … or since. But one thing is for sure, M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2) is near all-time lows.

Then we have headline US inflation as a function of M2 Money growth YoY.

To paraphrase Alexander Dayne from Galaxy Quest, “They broke the financial system, they broke the bloody financial system!”

And it is the midterm election “silly season” where no politician will discuss the complete and utter mess they have made. According to US Debt Clock, US national debt is already up to $31.26 trillion (OMG!), but the REALLY scary number that not a single politician will address is UNFUNDED LIABILITIES OF $172.4 TRILLION.

Can we go back to the gold standard? Or silver standard? Or ANY standard for that matter??

Instead, we have porous borders and patently UNSOUND money, thanks to MMT.

How Biden And The Fed Defanged The FANG Index And Clobbered Growth And Real Estate ETFs (Cousin Eddie And Clark Griswold Strike Again!)

There is no doubt that Biden is the Cousin Eddie of politics with his gifts that keep on giving. Like rampant inflation, soaring food, gasoline and diesel prices, and Pelosi/Schumer’s helping hand in creating price controls that will kill potential cures for illnesses.

In addition to rampant 40-year highs in inflation, we have the Clark Griswold of the economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, slamming his foot on the economic breaks to combat inflation created by Biden’s energy mandates and reckless Federal spending (like the aforementioned, laughable “Inflation Reduction Act.”

So, Biden helps creates massive inflation and Powell and the Gang counterattacked by raising their target rate with more to come (at least until May 2023). And with the implied Fed Funds rate soaring (red line), we are seeing the FANG stocks (Facebook or Meta, Amazon, Netflix and Google) falling more rapidly (white line) than the S&P 500 index. Which is also falling like a rock (yellow line). All this is happening as M2 Money YoY crashes and burns.

How about growth versus value under Cousin Eddie and Clark Griswold? The Vanguard Growth ETF and Vanguard Real Estate ETF are plunging with Fed tightening (red line). Vanguard’s Value ETV (yellow line) is down too, but not by as much.

Yes, Washington DC elites. The gift that keeps on giving … bad things.

Thanks to my former GMU student Andrew Edwards for the Cousin Eddie suggestion!

US Mortgage Rate Hits 7.35% As Fed Combats Bidenflation (Mortgage Rates UP 155% Under Inflation Joe!)

The mortgage market is really hurting under the stewardship of “Inflation Joe” Biden.

Bankrate’s 30yr mortgage rate hit 7.35% yesterday, up 155% under Biden.

Here is a photo of Inflation Joe taking aim at the mortgage industry and housing market.

US REAL 30yr Mortgage Rates Finally Turn Positive (0.32%) While REAL 10yr Treasury Yields Remain Negative (-2.50%)

It has been a wild and mostly negative ride under Biden’s Reign of Error. 40-year highs in inflation (caused by Biden’s fossil fuel mandates and Federal spending) have left the US mortgage market FINALLY seeing positive REAL mortgage rates (now 0.32%), even though the REAL 10yr Treasury yield is still negative (-2.50%).