Already Gone! U.S. Manufacturing Index Falls to Lowest Since 2020 As Fed Signals Removal Of Monetary Stimulus (As 10Y Treasury Yield Tries To Breech 3% Barrier)

What happens when the massive Fed stimulus is gone? Its Already Gone … or going.

A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly dropped in April to the lowest level since 2020 as growth in orders, production and employment softened.

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of factory activity fell to 55.4 last month from 57.1, according to data released Monday. The Manufacturing Prices index remained elevated.

As the 10-year Treasury yield tries to breech the 3% barrier.

And as The Fed continues to threaten tightening of their monetary follicies, the S&P 500 index is down 14% since Dec 31, 2021.

And the NASDAQ had it worst monthly loss since 2008.

Terminal (Money) Velocity? M2 Money Velocity Crashes To Near All-time Low As Fed Continues To Print Money At 9% YoY Clip (Mortgage Rates Keep Rising)

M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2 Money) peaked in Q3 1997, but after several bouts of Fed money printing, M2 Money Velocity is near the all-time low at 1.1216 In Q1 2022. And M2 Money stock is still growing at a torrid pace of 9.9% YoY. But the massive overreaction of The Federal Reserve in response to the Covid outbreak has led to near zero money velocity.

Now with The Federal Reserve considering removing the monetary stimulus, what will happen to US GDP left to survive on its own?

An example of how The Fed’s expected tightening of monetary policy can be seen in the meteoric rise in mortgage rates.

So, the US has hit terminal money velocity. I wish The Fed lots of luck going forward.

Is Charlie Sheen the Chairman of The Federal Reserve Board of Governors?? That must be Lael Brainard falling out of the sky with Charlie Sheen (aka, Jerome Powell).

Going Down! MBA Mortgage Applications Dive 8.6% WoW, Purchase Apps Decline 7%, Refi Apps Decline 9% As Mortgage Rates Skyrocket (ARM Share Rose 9.4% WoW)

Thanks to The Federal Reserve helping to raise mortgage rates through the roof, mortgage applications are going down.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey. Mortgage applications decreased 8.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 22, 2022.

The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week and was 71 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The percentage of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) increase 9.4% from previous week.

Yes, the 30-year mortgage rate is rising extremely fast.

“You’re Going Down” by Jerome Powell and The Constitution Avenue band. President Joe Biden conducting.

Fed Fireball! Mortgage Rates Climb To Highest Level Since 2009 As Fed Attacks Inflation And Markets Get Crushed (S&P 500 Index Down 7% In April, Bitcoin Down 11%)

Its Saturday and I am dreading markets opening on Monday. But here is where we sit today.

The 30-year mortgage rate has soared to 5.29%, the highest level since 2009 at the beginning of Obama’s Presidency. Since 2009, we have seen the purchasing power of the US Dollar decline further (orange line) while inflation (blue line) has soared. M1 (yellow) and M2 (green) has been growing since the financial crisis, but really took-off with the Covid outbreak in 2020 and The Fed’s massive overreaction coupled with Federal government stimulus.

Since the creation of The Federal Reserve System under President Woodrow Wilson, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has collapsed so much that $10 in 1913 in worth 34.8 cents today. But notice that since 1949, the CPI YoY has rarely been negative meaning that prices are pretty much only going up.

Instead of April showers bring May flowers, it is April expected Fed rate hikes (now 10.408 rate hikes by February 2023) bringing declining assets prices. In April so far, the S&P 500 index is DOWN 7%, the 10-year Treasury Note price is DOWN 5%, Bitcoin is DOWN 11%, the 3.5 coupon agency MBS price is down 3.2%.

We are seeing increased volatility in both the equity and bond markets.

Well, Powell and The Fed are hurling fireballs at mortgage rates and asset prices in April.

Equity Markets Get “Powell’d” After Fed Chair Backs Front-Loading Rate Hikes, Says Half-Point on Table (Dow Down Over 600 Points On “Foul Powell” Utterance)

And what an unappetizing table it is!

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he saw merit in the argument for front-loading interest-rate increases, including a half percentage-point hike next month.“

I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting,” Powell told an IMF-hosted panel on Thursday in Washington that he shared with European Central Bank

President Christine Lagarde and other officials. “We really are committed to using our tools to get 2% inflation back,” he said, referring to the Fed’s target for annual price increases.

Central bankers are grappling with some of the highest inflation rates since the 1980s that are being further pressured as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosts food and energy prices and China’s coronavirus lockdowns tangles supply chains anew.

Equity markets in the USA and Europe are getting “Powell’d” and “Lagarde’d” today. As of noon today, the Dow is down 628 points (or -1.81%). Euro Stoxx 50 is down -2.24%.

I remember appearing on Fox Business’ Stuart Varney and Company where he asked me what will happen when The Fed starts to raise rates in a serious fashion. I made a ka-boom gesture at which he laughed. Stuart, I wasn’t joking!

Foul Powell on the Prowl, driving up mortgage rates, and driving down equities and bonds.

Slipping Into Darkness! Bidenflation And Fed’s Reaction Causing Social Security And Pension Funds To Get Clobbered (Mortgage Rates Keep Climbing)

US President Biden went green and signed executive orders on his first day to limit oil and natural gas exploration of Federal lands and offshore (also, killed the Keystone Pipeline), helping to drive up energy prices and food prices. These orders begat inflation (also caused by the massive Covid relief by the Federal government). The highest inflation in 40 years begat The Federal Reserve signalling a tightening of Fed monetary policy … to fight the problem caused by The Fed in the first place … too much monetary stimulus for too long. Fiscal and monetary fanaticism and ignorance is forever busy and needs feeding

There was an interesting article on MarketWatch entitled “Bond rout exposes Social Security’s insanity.” The headline was “Every dollar of yours that’s invested in the Social Security trust fund is invested in low-yielding government bonds.”

Yes, another disastrous consequence of The Fed’s lax monetary policy since 2008, helping to push Treasury yields extremely low. And REAL Treasury yields into negative territory.

But here we sit today with The Fed threatening to trim their balance sheet and raise rates … to combat the inflation they helped create in the first place. Now we have the 10-year Treasury Note price falling like a paralyzed falcon with expected hate hikes going above rate hikes by February 2023 (based on Fed Funds Futures prices).

Most pension funds also invest heaving in US Treasuries, along with agency Mortgage-backed Securities (AgencyMBS).

Plus we have the Treasury curve slipping into darkness.

Speaking of “Slipping Into Darkness,” mortgage rates are soaring.

Meanwhile, Biden, Fed economists and Congress are merrily partying at some DC nightclub.

What is hip? NOT Biden, Pelosi, Schumer or Powell.

How Biden And Congress Helped Crush Netflix Stock Price (Declining REAL Earnings Led To Crash In Neflix Subscriptions)

Netflix, the movie and TV show subscription service, suffered an extraordinary decline in its stock price. But like the film “Margin Call” that pretends the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 was a surprise, it really is no surprise that Netflix is getting crushed. Why? Thanks to Bidenflation, millions of American households are suffering (REAL average hourly earnings are declining under Biden) and many of those were Netflix subscribers.

Netflix’ earnings per share soared when Biden was first installed as President, likely due to effects of Biden’s/Pelosi’s/Schumer’s Covid stimulus. But alas, fiscal stimulus is short-lived but the negative effects of inflation are long-lasting.

Inflation Joe, the bully of the middle class and low-wage workers. But at least millionaires will get more electric cars charging stations! /sarc

T-R-O-U-B-L-E! Mortgage Purchase Applications DOWN 14% From Same Week Last Year, Refi Applications DOWN 68% (Yet Fed STILL Has Its Huge Foot On Monetary Gas Pedal) This One’s Gonna Hurt You For A Long, Long Time

There is one song that sums up the mortgage banking industry with proposed tightening of Fed monetary stimulypto: T-R-O-U-B-L-E.

Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 15, 2022.

The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 68 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

All together now, mortgage rates are up 76% under Biden.

And yes, The Federal Reserve STILL has its enormous foot on the monetary gas pedal (with hints that they will remove it “soon.”

The number of ARMs increased 14.9% from the previous week.

Between Bidenflation and Powell and the Gang tightening monetary policy, This One’s Gonna Hurt You (For A Long, Long Time).

People Get Ready! Agency MBS Prices Drop Like A Rock As Mortgage Rates AND Duration Risk Soar (Energy Prices Drop Over 5% On Covid Shutdown In China)

People Get Ready! For The Federal Reserve to actually withdraw its massive stimulus.

I generally discuss that negative impact of rising mortgage rates on the housing market, but today I am focusing on the decline in agency mortgage-backed security prices due to rising mortgage rates.

Here is the uniform MBS price for a 3.5% coupon security. It is falling like a rock with anticipated Fed monetary tightening.

And duration risk is going to the moon! (That is, accelerating rapidly).

FNCL 3.5 coupon MBS has a WAC of 4.206 and a WAM (or WARM) of 359. Not to mention a factor 0.997.

At least energy prices are cooling thanks to China grinding to a halt with the latest Covid epidemic.

I wish The Fed would back off its allegedly ambitious tightening and soothe me.

But hold on, Powell and The Fed are coming with their sword of destruction.

US 1-Unit Housing Starts Drop -1.72% YoY As Mortgage Rates Soar While Apartment Starts Rise 7.5% MoM (Bullard Says Fed Could Raise Rates By 75 BPS At May Meeting, Japanese Yen To US Dollar Crashes)

We have Federal Reserve of St Louis President James “Bully” Bullard saying that The Fed could raise rates by 75 basis points in May, the Japanese Yen to Dollar is crashing as mortgage rates continue to soar.

Here is a nice summary of The Fed’s massive balance sheet expansion in reaction to Covid (orange line) and the resulting soaring of home prices. Then The Fed signals that they will remove the “punchbowl” and mortgage rates have boomed. And not in a good day.

Today we have the US housing starts report. In a nutshell, 1-unit housing starts (single-family detached) declined -4.4% YoY as mortgage rates skyrocket.

5+ unit (aka, apartment stats rose 7.49% MoM in March while 1-unit starts declined by -1.72% MoM. 1-unit permits fell by -4.81% MoM while 5+ units starts rose by 10.89% MoM.