One More Hike! Fed Expected To Raise Rates One More Time, Then Start Cutting Rates (Large Bank Failures, Slowing Economy)

Like the Phil Collins song “One More Night”, there will be one more hike.

The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to one more hike at the upcoming May FOMC meeting. Then reversal of policy.

With the massive bank failures under Clueless Joe, The Fed will intervene to make the problem worse. And with Biden’s insane mortgage policies, Prince’s “Let’s Go Crazy!” is the perfect themesong for Biden and The Fed.

The Punisher! Biden “Punishes Responsibility” As New Mortgage Equity Program Begins

Joe Biden should be nicknamed “The Punisher” for his new woke mortgage idiocy.

Starting yesterday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s mortgage pricing adjustments will increase fees for borrowers with high credit scores while reducing costs for those with subpar credit scores. This upside-down policy is blatantly socialism, and one can’t help but wonder if anyone in the Biden administration learned anything from the subprime mortgage meltdown that occurred more than a decade ago.

As part of the Biden administration’s plan to make housing affordable for everyone (we’ve seen this story before), upfront fees for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be adjusted based on the borrower’s credit score. Borrowers with high credit scores will pay more in fees, while those with lower credit scores will pay less.

The Wall Street Journal cited data from Evercore ISI that shows borrowers with credit scores between 720-759 who make around 15-20% down payments will see loan-level pricing adjustment (LLPA) costs rise by .750%. Inversely, under the new adjustments, risky borrowers with a credit score below 639 and who put down only 5% of the value of their home will only have to pay 1.750%, compared with 3.750% under old rules.

Backlash over LLPA changes prompted the FHFA to publish a statement last week, calling such concerns “a fundamental misunderstanding.” The Biden administration ensures the new changes are meant to help those with poor credit scores obtain homes amid the worst housing affordability in a generation. Note that Biden did not speak on this himself since he would undoubtedly get confused and call people names. And get lost leaving the podium.

According to the FHFA, the new adjustments will redistribute funds to reduce the interest rate costs paid by risky borrowers. This sounds like socializing home buying to us.

Even more alarming is data from the American Enterprise Institute found that default rates of Fannie/Freddie owner-occupied 30-year fixed-rate purchase loans acquired in 2006-2007 were between 39.3% and 56.2% for borrowers with credit scores between 620 and 639 and less than 4% down payments. Those with credit scores between 720 and 769 and 20% down payments had default rates between 4.2% and 8.8%.

Joe Biden’s new nickname is “The Punisher.” Not only for this sick and twisted theft from people who work hard and are careful with their credit, but also for his crazy obsession with going green and driving energy prices (and inflation) through the roof.

The Incredible Shrinking Biden Economy! ISM Manufacturing Screams Stagflation, Still Contracting With “Reigniting Inflationary Pressures” (ISM Shrinks For Sixth Month)

Ah, that wonderful economy O’Biden talks about. It is actually shrinking.

The ISM Manufacturing index screams stagflation, as it continues to contract. With “reigniting inflationary pressures.

And prices are beginning to take off again.

The United Banana Republics Of America! US Credit Default Swap (CDS) Price Hits 176.53 As Debt Default Looms

Thanks to O’Biden (Obama/Biden) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s failure to negotiate a debt ceiling increase, the US has officially become a banana republic. Crazy government, lawless censoring and arrest of opposing political candidates.

The US CDS 1Y SR Eur just hit a staggering 176.53. That is the price of insuring against a debt default by O’Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Is a US debt default likely? It shouldn’t be. But you never know with the circus clowns in the White House and nasty Chuck Schumer. But arresting the leading Republican Presidential candidate before the elections is pure Chavez/Maduro Banana Republic politics.

2 year Treasury yield up over 11 basis points today.

Crisis? What Crisis? First Republic Bank Headed For FDIC Receivership, US Yield Curve Plunges, Bank Lending Plunges, Middle Class Shrinks Under Biden/Yellen

Crisis? What crisis?

First, First Republic bank is most likely headed for FDIC receivership, sources say; shares drop 40%.

Second, we have the US yield curve (3M T-yield – 18M FWD 3M T-yield) crashing to the most inverted since the 1990s.

Third, we have US bank lending crashing.

Fourth, we have a shrinking middle class. Way to go Biden/Yellen/Powell!

I wish I could sing “Goodbye Biden and Yellen.” And Foul Powell too.

Is that Mayor Pete??

The Core! US March Core PCE Prices Remain HOT At 4.6% YoY Despite Fed Crashing M2 Money Growth, March Personal Spending Slows To 0% MoM (Taylor Rule Suggests 10.27% Target Rate)

March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Core Prices remain HOT despite The Fed crashing M2 Money growth. PCE Core price growth remained elevated at 4.6%.

Personal spending in March slowed to 0% growth.

The Taylor Rule infers a Fed Funds target rate of 10.27% Alas, we will never get there.

How Bad Are Things Under Biden? US Credit Default Swaps At 162 While Peru And Mexico Are At Under 30 (US Worse Than Third World Nations)

US House Speaker passed on a budget to the US Senate to avoid a US debt default. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schuner said “DOA” and Biden refuses to negotiate with McCarthy. Hence, the US Credit Default Swap 1Y rose to 162 today.

For comparison sake, Peru and Mexico are at under 30. How pathetic is that?

Biden’s Reign of Error is only getting worse. That is why he is Clueless Joe!

US March Pending Home Sales Crash By -23.3% Since Last Year (YoY) And -5.2% Since Last Month (MoM) As Fed Retreats (16th Straight Month Of Negative Growth)

So much for the hopium spread by the Biden Administration and Realtors in general.

US Pending Home Sales crashed -23.3% YoY and -5.2% MoM for the 16th straight month of negative growth in pending home sales.

Wasting again in Bidenville, looking for my lost economy. Biden says Maga Republicans are to blame, but we know its Biden’s and Congress’s fault.

Is That All There Is? US GDP Grows At A Pathetic 1.1% QoQ Rate Despite Massive Spending Spree By Biden, Gross Private Domestic Investment Crashes By -12.5% QoQ (Bad Return On $3.37 TRILLION In Spending)

Crooner Peggy Lee said it best: Is that all there is?

Unfortunately, US GDP grew at a pathetic 1.1% QoQ.

Official estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show that, since January 2021, legislation signed by President Biden has set in motion a record $3.37 trillion in new spending. And for all that spending, we get a pathetic 1.1% QoQ growth rate?

Inflation continues to be 4% QoQ despite M2 Money growth collapsing.

Gross private domestic investment crashed by -12.5% QoQ.

This is Biden’s idea of a strong economy? His lame campaign slogan is “Let’s finish the job!” Please don’t Joe!

And take Janet “The Evil Hobbit” with you!

Wasting Away In Bidenville! US Mortgage Demand Rises 3.7% Since Last Week (WoW), But Mortgage Purchase Demand Remains -28% Lower Than Last Year (YoY) While Mortage Refi Demand Is -51% Lower

Wasting away again in Bidenville. Nibblin’ on ice cream. Watching the economy boil. Particularly mortgage demand.

Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 21, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 28 percent lower than the same week one year ago.