What Biden Meant When He Said Zero Inflation (July CPI Rose 0% In July) While REAL Earnings Growth Remains Negative And Rent CPI Soars

Joe Biden is without a doubt the worst communicator in Presidential history.

Here is clip of him explaining how wonderful the US economy is under his leadership. 0% CPI growth in July after a great jobs report where 528k jobs were added.

While President Biden is technically correct (CPI didn’t increase from June to July), he left out that headline inflation was still painful at 8.5% YoY and core inflation was 5.9% YoY. He also left out that CORE inflation rose 0.3% in July. And he left out that REAL earnings growth was still negative.

The midterm elections are approaching fast and, of course, Biden and his crew have to put the best face of his and the Democrats accomplishments. But seriously Joe, REAL weekly earnings growth is negative meaning that inflation is crushing wage growth. Meanwhile, CPI rent is skyrocketing and was 5.8% YoY in July.

As we know, the CPI measure of rent is terrible and does not reflect the actual rise in rents. Zillow’s Rent index YoY is slowing, but remains at 14.75% YoY, far higher than the CPI rent measure of 5.8%.

So, the Federal Government and Federal Reserve keeps pumping trillions into the economy, so it is not surprising that we have rampant inflation crushing renters.

Goin’ Down! US Treasury 2-year Yield Drops 15 Basis Points In AM (10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Curve Remains Inverted At -38.870 BPS)

Goin’ down!

Lots of volatility in markets culminating in a 15 basis point drop in the US Treasury Note yield.

Since the 10-year Treasury yield dropped only -2.7 basis points, the 10Y-2Y yield curve rose slightly to -38.87 basis points.

US July Inflation Remains Hot (CPI At 8.5% YoY) While Real Weekly Wage Growth Remains Burned (-3.6% YoY) Mortgage Refi Apps Down -82% YoY While Mortgage Purchase Apps Down -19% YoY)

The US July inflation report remains hot, hot, hot! While mortgage purchase and refinancing applications are not, not, not.

The US consumer price index rose 8.5% in July. And real average weekly growth remains burned by horrid inflation, at -3.6% YoY.

Source of inflation?

Headline inflation above estimates in 14 of last 16 months.

Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 5, 2022 revealed that … the Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week and was 82 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage applications are NOT hot, hot, hot.

US Treasury Yield Curve Descends Further Into Darkness (-48.4 BPS) As Supply Of Homes Increases 30.7% In June (Fed Is Cooling Off Housing Market)

The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is descending further into darkness (aka, inversion).

The 10Y-2Y yield curve hit the worst inversion since 2000 as the curve slope hit -47.7 basis points, inverting another -2.267 basis points today.

Yes, the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve is SCREAMING RECESSION.

(Bloomberg) – Prashant Gopal – The supply of homes for sale across the US grew at a record rate last month, another sign that higher mortgage costs are cooling down the housing market.

The number of active listings nationwide jumped 31% from a year earlier, a record-high increase for a third straight month, according to a report Tuesday by Realtor.com.

And according to Redfin, stale inventory is accelerating.

The Federal Reserve is no friend of the US middle class and low wage worker.

Labor Blues! US Labor Productivity Declines -4.6% In Q2 As Unit Labor Costs Sizzles At 10.8% (Fed Balance Sheet Still Out In Force)

Labor Blues!

US labor productivity declined in Q2, down -4.6% since Q1. At the same time, unit labor costs continue to soar at a rate of 10.8%.

You can see that The Federal Reserve has begun to SLOWLY reduce it balance sheet.

Somehow, I don’t think Biden’s team will be discussing today’s news, other than report that “It’s A Beautiful Day Today.”

Pushin’ Too Hard? US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts To -45 Basis Points (Most Inverted Since 2000) Despite Senate Passing “Inflation Reduction” Boondoggle

Is The Federal Reserve pushin’ too hard on raising their target rate?

The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve descended further into inversion, signaling impending recession.

The US unemployment rate (U-3) tends to be the lowest when the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts, then explodes when recession strikes.

The spread between the Bankrate 30-year mortgage rate and the Bankrate 5/1 ARM rate widened to 139 basis points.

This is happening as The Fed is expected to keep raising their target rate (yellow line) and the US Senate passed its massive “inflation reduction” boondoggle that is expected to NOT reduce inflation, but raise taxes on the middle class and low-wage workers.

Simply Unaffordable! Gap Between Real Home Price Growth (+11.17% YoY) And Real Wage Growth (-2.15% YoY) Near Highest Since 1988 (REAL 30Y Mortgage Rate Is Now -3.23%)

The US housing market is simply unaffordable for millions of Americans. To illustrate the problem, here is a chart of the Case-Shiller National home price index less CPI YoY graphed against Average Hourly Wages less CPI YoY.

The gap between the REAL national home price index YoY and REAL US average hourly earnings YoY is near the largest since 1988. Inflation is making matters far worse since REAL average hourly earnings growth continues to decline.

The only thing positive to say is that REAL home price growth YoY is lower now than at the peak of the 2005 home price bubble that burst catastrophically.

Another “positive” is that the REAL 30-year mortgage rate has fallen to -3.23%. At the peak of the house price bubble in June 2005, the REAL 30-year mortgage rate was +2.58%. THAT is one big difference between the pre-2008 recession and today’s impending recession.

Weekend Update! US Treasury Yield Curve Inversion Worsens Screaming Impending Recession, 30Y Mortgage Rate Rises To 5.6% (5/1 ARM Rate Rises To 4.21%)

Here is your weekend update on Treasury and Mortgage markets.

The current US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve just slipped further into reversion at -40.299 basis points, screaming impending recession. Oddly, The Federal Reserve has been leaving its balance sheet of Agency Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) in tact (green line).

On the mortgage front, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate index rose to 5.60% while the affordability-friendly 5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rate rose to 4.21%.

Currently, a 5/1 ARM borrower can save 139 basis points over the traditional 30-year mortgage rate.

Have a wonderful weekend!

US 10-year Treasury Yield Surges +14 Basis Points As Strange Jobs Report Spurs Fed Rate Hike Fears

Today’s jobs report was … strange. While the US economy added more jobs than expected, we also saw labor force participation contract and real wage growth decline again.

The reaction in the bond market? US Treasury 10-year yields exploded by +14 basis points. As I used to tell my fixed-income students, any basis point jump or decline of 10 basis points or more is a BIG DEAL.

The implied target rate for The Fed (based on Fed Funds Futures) is now lower for the Jan 1, 2024 FOMC meeting (3.025%) than it is for the Sept 21, 2022 FOMC meeting (3.034%).

Mortgage rates? They will go up as The Fed removes its Brawndo, the economy mutilator.

‘Sizzling’ US Jobs Data (+528k) Make Case for Bigger Fed Rate Increases (Real Avg Hourly Earnings Growth Sinks To -3.8173 And US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts Further To -37.6, Most Inverted Since 2000)

The media is thrilled with today’s jobs report showing a sizzling 528k jobs added to the US economy. And with that, the media is cheering that recession fears are shrinking.

But hold on a second.

First, while 528k jobs were added in July (great news!), REAL average hourly earnings growth YoY fell to -3.8173. Why? Because the rate of inflation is greater than nominal average hourly earnings YoY of 5.2%. That is BAD.

This charts shows that inflation-adjusted (or real) wage growth is the worst in recorded history.

And the “sizzling” jobs report isn’t feeling any love in the bond market where the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) deepened its inversion to -37.593 basis points, a drop of -1.331 BPS. Note that the 10Y-2Y curve falls below 0% just prior to every recession.

Labor force participation actually fell to 62.1% from 62.2% in June.

I am assuming that The Fed will misread the jobs report and argue for LESS COWBELL.