SuperCore! SuperCore Inflation Rises For 49th Straight Month As Economic Surprise Data Collapses

Well, the Trump/Biden CNN Presidential debate was a disaster … for Biden. It was the worst debate performance I have even seen. Even worse was the “victory” party where Jill Biden treated President Biden like a little child being potty-trained and shreiked that all Trump does is L:IED. How strange since ALL Biden does is lie. But enough of this.

But how about SuperCore inflation?

The last month has seen US Macro data collapsing at its fastest rate in years…

Source: Bloomberg

…which, many believe, will also drag down inflation (and it has been)…

Source: Bloomberg

Today, we get to see The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – which rose 0.1% MoM in May (after a revised +0.3% MoM for April) and in line with expectations. The headline PCE Price Index was unchanged MoM as expected as Durable Goods deflation trumped surging Services costs…

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, both headline and core PCE declined…

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, Durable Goods deflation is at its strongest in at least a decade…

Source: Bloomberg

More notably, the so-called SuperCore PCE rose 0.1% MoM, which saw YoY slow to 3.39%… which is awkwardly stagnant at elevated levels…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the 49th straight monthly rise in SuperCore prices with Healthcare costs soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

On a MoM basis, Income grew more than expected (+0.5% vs +0.2% exp) while spending rose less than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% exp)

Source: Bloomberg

Which accelerated both income and spending on a YoY basis (with the latter outpacing the former, of course)…

Source: Bloomberg

With wage pressures rising once again…

Government 8.5%, up from 8.4% but below the record high of 8.9%
Private 4.5% up from 4.2%

Source: Bloomberg

And after a series of revisions, the savings rate ticked up to 3.9% of DPI (from 3.7%) – the highest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which takes place against a background of the sixth straight month of rising government handouts (well it is an election year after all)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, while acyclical inflationary pressures continue to drift lower, cyclical inflationary pressures remain extremely elevated…

Source: Bloomberg

A very mixed bag but nothing screams ‘automatic’ rate-cuts… and SuperCore refuses to budge.

Hey Big Spenders! 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists say Trump policies will fuel inflation (big spending gov’t +37.7%, US debt up 50% under Biden driving the economy, along with Federal Reserve)

Hey big spenders (Biden, Congress and the 16 Nobel prize winning economists).

June 25 (Reuters) – Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists signed a letter on Tuesday warning that the U.S. and world economy will suffer if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November.

The jointly signed letter, first reported by Axios, says the economic agenda of U.S. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, is “vastly superior” to Trump’s, the former Republican president seeking a second term.

Read the source article from Reuters for the rest of the Marxist clown show. What Joe Stiglitz and other Leftist economists are cheerleading in the excessive post Covid spending spree that Biden and Congress went on. There is a different between a free market system and government directed spending, usually on large donors.

One source of crippling inflation under Biden is (wasteful) government spending, up 37.7% under Biden. Federal debt is up a nauseating 50% under Biden. These levels of spending and debt are NOT sustainable!

Another souce of inflation under Biden has been The Federal Reserve. With Covid. The Fed entered like gangbusters dropping their target rate to 25 basis points and massively increasing their balance sheet. Call this BIDEN 1. Then to squelch inflation, The Fed raised their target rate and slowly started to unwind the balance sheet. We saw a slowing of inflation. Nothing to do with Biden, although I am sure he will take credit for it at Thursday’s debate with Trump.

Inflation was growing rapidly in Biden 1, but inflation started to slow (Biden 2) as The Fed rapidly raised their target rate.

Where The Jobs Aren’t! California Shows No Net Job Growth During 2023

Where the jobs aren’t! Calfironia under Gavin Newsom and their Marxist elected officials.

Based on the most recent release of the early benchmarks, payroll jobs declined by 32,000 from September 2023 through December 2023. On the contrary, the preliminary monthly reports showed a solid increase in job growth (+117,000 jobs) at the time. With the fourth quarter revision, calendar year 2023 saw essentially no net job growth (+9,000 jobs overall). Data since January 2024 has not yet been rebenched. As such, the figure includes the Early Benchmark Revision for these recent months growing at the same rate as the official CES estimates.

Given Calfornia’s burdersome taxes and regulations, not to mention $20 per hour for fast food workers, it is not surrprising that job growth in California has been minimal.

Biden Shrugged! US Economy Actually Lost -408k Jobs In May (Initial Claims Surge To 10-Month Highs As California Joblessness Soars)

Joe Biden is a dishonest politician, so it is no wonder that he ignores actual data. Like claiming that crime is down under his leadership, when it is actually large cities like New York and Los Angeles not reporting their crime data to the FBI.

Take the May jobs numbers. The BLS reports that 272k jobs were added. However, the more accurate Household Survery reported a loss of -408k jobs in May.

While the Establishment Survey did indeed report that 272K “jobs” were added, this number also included multiple job holders; stripping those out, we get that the actual number of “employed” workers plunged by -408K.

On the jobless claims side, the number of Americans applying for jobless benefits for the first time surged last week to 242k (up from 229k and well above the 225k exp). That is the highest since August 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

On an NSA basis, claims exploded higher.

The last three weeks have seen the largest surge in claims since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably this surge is very VERY similar to what we saw last year (but not the prior few years, so not a ‘seasonal’ pattern per se)…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in NSA claims was driven by California…

California leads the nation in initial jobless claims, thanks to Newsom’s $20 per hour minimum wage law for fast food restaurants. This one’s gonna hurt Californians for a long, long time.

Biden and Newsom WISH they were Atlas.

Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs – Up 20% Since Biden Elected (Shelter Index Rose 5.4% Over Past Year)

The middle class and low wager workers are made for kicking. And that’s with Bidenomics did.

The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May – the smallest change since July 2022 – just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) – but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM…(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month. )

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.

Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.

May Shelter inflation 5.41% YoY, down from 5.55% in April and lowest since April 2022
May Rent inflation 5.30% YoY, down from 5.44% and lowest since May 2022

For context on how important housing costs are to US inflation data, the shelter index rose 5.4% over the last year, making up over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.

Source: Bloomberg

It does make one wonder were exactly the BLS is getting their BS OER data from…

The full breakdown…

Services INflation remains awkwardly stuck above 5% while Goods DEflation is at its weakest since January 2004…

Source: Bloomberg

SuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM – its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%…

Source: Bloomberg

Transportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump’s term).

And prices have never been more expensive…

That is an average of 5.4% per annum (almost triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).

Source: Bloomberg

Since President Biden was elected, food prices at home are up around 21% and food prices away from home are up almost 23%…

And while the Biden administration will continue to gaslight voters with comments like “inflation is tumbling”… every man, woman, and child who actually buys food knows prices have NEVER been higher…

Finally, while the ‘flations’ have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Will the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?

Source: Bloomberg

And is this guaranteed if Powell decides “insurance” cuts are required (for Biden?)

Too Much Debt! US Government And Consumers Are Debt Crazed (US Debt Hits $34.8 TRILLION, Consumer Debt Hits $17.69 TRILLION, Unfunded Liabilities Hits $216 TRILLION)

Too much debt should be the theme song for the US! Both for consumers and the Feral government (not a typo!)

Consumer credit increased by +$6.403 billion in April, much softer than consensus estimate of +$10 billion … more notable, however, was March data, given initial read of +$6.274 billion was revised down to -$1.099 billion.

Not to mention $13 trillion in mortgage debt (1-4 unit housing), but at least that is backed by property. Unlike The Feral government who borrows/prints with only a promise.

Consumer Debt Hits $17.69 TRILLION.

US national debt stands at $34.8+ trillion.

And growing awfully fast. Note that since the “pandamic”, debt as % of GDP has exceeded 100% and is projected to hit 166% by 2054. But look at the UNFUNDED LIABILITIES the need to be paid ($216+ TRILLION ($641.5k per citizen!). Pretty soon, we (the 99%) will be back on the chain gang paying for endless wars and government corruption. I wish Biden, Schumer, McConnell and other swamp creatures would consider all the spending the government is on the hook for rather than focus on spending that will help them get elected perpetually. There is no middle of the road anymore. The US is broke and has too much debt.

Of course, President Biden wants endless spending on wars (Ukraine, Israel, etc) and now wants an unlimited check to pay for the next pandemics. The Pretenders’ song “My City Was Gone” seems to be appropriate for the US as “My County Is Gone.”

Of course, some “economists” claim that the US can borrow/print unlimited amounts of money … until they can’t.

The Wreck Of The US Middle Class: America’s Paychecks Bigger Than 40 Years Ago, But Purchasing Power About The Same (Credit Card Delinquencies Highest Since 1991)

Under Bidenomics and Fed monetary “policies”, we now have the wreck of the US middle class.

To begin with, America’s paychecks are bigger than 40 years ago, but purchasing power of those larger paychecks is about the sames as it was 40 years ago. Great job Washington DC!!! … NOT!!!!

Meanwhile, credit card delinquencies are at the highest level since 1991.

Americans are feeling extreme financial stress.

Coping with Bidennomics and The Fed has been most difficult. Especially if you listened to Biden’s D-Day speech (almost stolen word-for-word from a Ronald Reagan speech).

Demented Joe Biden being led by the hand by his money-grubbing wife. “Joe, you will be here soon!”

ZERO INCREASE In Jobs For Native-born Workers In Over Five Years! (Native-born Workers Lost 463k Jobs In May 2024 While Foreign-born Workers Gained 414k Jobs)

The theme song for the Biden Administration should be “South of The Border.”

Biden’s open borders policies are like something out of the book/film “Gangs of New York.” This time it isn’t Irish immigrants that are rioting/looting, it iis illegal immigrants from Latin America, China, and the Middle East. Essentially replacing native-born workers with foreign-born workers.

Since COVID, the growth in foreign-born workers have blow away the growth in native-born workers. So much so that since 2019, native-born workers have actually lost jobs while foreign-born workers have surged.

But for May 2024, native-born workers lost 463k jobs while foreign-born gained 414k jobs.

In May, part-time jobs soared by 286k jobs while full-time jobs nosedived by -625k jobs.

Finally, the difference between the BLS survey and the more accurate Household Survey is huge!

Chicago PMI Screams RECESSION! Falls To Cycle Low Of 35.4, Back To 2008 Recession Levels (Copper Prices Rising!)

Not so Sweet Home Chicago!

After unexpectedly slumping last month to 37.9, the Chicago PMI index cratered even more unexpectedly in May, when it defied hopes of a rebound to 41.5, and instead tumbled even more, sliding to a cycle low of 35.4 which was not only below the lowest estimate, but was staggeringly low. To get a sense of just how low, the last two times it printed here was during the peak of the covid and global financial crises…

… which seems to suggest that at least according to Chicago-based purchasing managers, the economy is in a depression.

This is how the final number looked relative to expectations.

Looking at the report we find the following:

Business barometer fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Supplier deliveries fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

Did nothing rise? One thing did:

Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

So we have not just a depression, but a stagflationary depression in which everything else is going to hell, except prices: they keep on rising.

And while it is unclear what has prompted this unprecedented bearishness (the surely negative contribution from Boeing is likely to blame for a substantial portion of the apocalyptic outlook), one thing is certain: Goldman will have to come up with even more goalseeked surveys that explain away reality and tell us how purchasing managers really should feel…

On the good news front, REAL Gross Domester Income rose to 1.5%.

As copper prices keep on rising. Which is bad news for Biden’s shift to EVs! (Once again, Biden is driven around in gas guzzling Chevy Tahoes/Suburbans and owns a Chevy Corvette). There isn’t enough copper production to build the EVs that Biden wants.

Biden drove his Chevy to the STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE and the reserve was dry. And them good old Democrats were drinkin’ whiskey and rye after a New York Jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, despite there not being any laws broken.

I have testified and sat through many trials in New York city and have never seen a court case quite like the one the Trump lost with the Judge effectively telling the jury to find Trump guilty.

Q1 GDP Revised Lower To Just 1.3%, Lowest In Two Years As Consumption Slows (Most Of Biden’s “Growth” Came From Covid-related Policies In 2020)

What I like about Biden’s economy … nothing. Most of Biden’s economic growth came from Trump’s spending and Fed monetary policy from the Covid shutdown of 2020.

What was until recently a “red-hot” economy, with the US reportedly growing at an annual rate of 4.9% in Q3 and 3.4% in Q4 2024, has suddenly and dramatically downshifted, and according to the latest GDP data released from Biden’s BEA, Q1 GDP was revised downward from 1.6% to just 1.3% (1.250% to be specific), which was the lowest GDP since the mini-recession of Q2 when GDP declined for 2 quarters in a row.

The sharp downward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending, which rose 2.0% annualized, down from 2.5% in the first GDP report and below the 2.2% estimate.

Drilling down into the number, the 1.3% increase reflected increases in consumer spending (below previous forecasts) and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care as well as financial services and insurance. Within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
The increase in housing investment was led by brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs as well as new single-family housing construction.
The decrease in inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing

In terms of bottom-line contributions, we find the following:

Personal consumption accounted for 1.34% (down from 1.68%), or more than the entire GDP print.
Fixed Investment added 1.02%, up from 0.91% in the first estimate.
The change in private inventories subtracted -0.45%, a deterioration from the -0.35% estimated previously.
Net trade (exports less imports), subtracted -0.89% from the bottom line print, comparable to the -0.86% detraction in the first estimate.
Finally, government added just 0.23%, up from 0.21% initially estimated, yet still the lowest contribution since Q2 2022.