One More Hike! Fed Expected To Raise Rates One More Time, Then Start Cutting Rates (Large Bank Failures, Slowing Economy)

Like the Phil Collins song “One More Night”, there will be one more hike.

The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to one more hike at the upcoming May FOMC meeting. Then reversal of policy.

With the massive bank failures under Clueless Joe, The Fed will intervene to make the problem worse. And with Biden’s insane mortgage policies, Prince’s “Let’s Go Crazy!” is the perfect themesong for Biden and The Fed.

The Incredible Shrinking Biden Economy! ISM Manufacturing Screams Stagflation, Still Contracting With “Reigniting Inflationary Pressures” (ISM Shrinks For Sixth Month)

Ah, that wonderful economy O’Biden talks about. It is actually shrinking.

The ISM Manufacturing index screams stagflation, as it continues to contract. With “reigniting inflationary pressures.

And prices are beginning to take off again.

The United Banana Republics Of America! US Credit Default Swap (CDS) Price Hits 176.53 As Debt Default Looms

Thanks to O’Biden (Obama/Biden) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s failure to negotiate a debt ceiling increase, the US has officially become a banana republic. Crazy government, lawless censoring and arrest of opposing political candidates.

The US CDS 1Y SR Eur just hit a staggering 176.53. That is the price of insuring against a debt default by O’Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Is a US debt default likely? It shouldn’t be. But you never know with the circus clowns in the White House and nasty Chuck Schumer. But arresting the leading Republican Presidential candidate before the elections is pure Chavez/Maduro Banana Republic politics.

2 year Treasury yield up over 11 basis points today.

Crisis? What Crisis? First Republic Bank Headed For FDIC Receivership, US Yield Curve Plunges, Bank Lending Plunges, Middle Class Shrinks Under Biden/Yellen

Crisis? What crisis?

First, First Republic bank is most likely headed for FDIC receivership, sources say; shares drop 40%.

Second, we have the US yield curve (3M T-yield – 18M FWD 3M T-yield) crashing to the most inverted since the 1990s.

Third, we have US bank lending crashing.

Fourth, we have a shrinking middle class. Way to go Biden/Yellen/Powell!

I wish I could sing “Goodbye Biden and Yellen.” And Foul Powell too.

Is that Mayor Pete??

The Core! US March Core PCE Prices Remain HOT At 4.6% YoY Despite Fed Crashing M2 Money Growth, March Personal Spending Slows To 0% MoM (Taylor Rule Suggests 10.27% Target Rate)

March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Core Prices remain HOT despite The Fed crashing M2 Money growth. PCE Core price growth remained elevated at 4.6%.

Personal spending in March slowed to 0% growth.

The Taylor Rule infers a Fed Funds target rate of 10.27% Alas, we will never get there.

US March Pending Home Sales Crash By -23.3% Since Last Year (YoY) And -5.2% Since Last Month (MoM) As Fed Retreats (16th Straight Month Of Negative Growth)

So much for the hopium spread by the Biden Administration and Realtors in general.

US Pending Home Sales crashed -23.3% YoY and -5.2% MoM for the 16th straight month of negative growth in pending home sales.

Wasting again in Bidenville, looking for my lost economy. Biden says Maga Republicans are to blame, but we know its Biden’s and Congress’s fault.

Is That All There Is? US GDP Grows At A Pathetic 1.1% QoQ Rate Despite Massive Spending Spree By Biden, Gross Private Domestic Investment Crashes By -12.5% QoQ (Bad Return On $3.37 TRILLION In Spending)

Crooner Peggy Lee said it best: Is that all there is?

Unfortunately, US GDP grew at a pathetic 1.1% QoQ.

Official estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show that, since January 2021, legislation signed by President Biden has set in motion a record $3.37 trillion in new spending. And for all that spending, we get a pathetic 1.1% QoQ growth rate?

Inflation continues to be 4% QoQ despite M2 Money growth collapsing.

Gross private domestic investment crashed by -12.5% QoQ.

This is Biden’s idea of a strong economy? His lame campaign slogan is “Let’s finish the job!” Please don’t Joe!

And take Janet “The Evil Hobbit” with you!

Recession Alert! Philly Fed Crashes To -22.8 For April (Slippin’ Into Darkness)

The US economy is slippin’ into darkness.

The Philly Fed NBOS General Business Activity Region Diffusion Index SA crashed to -22.8 in April.

And today’s Fed Funds Futures data points to a return of The Bernanke/Yellen “Low Rider” policy for rate management.

Why can’t the corporate media, AOC and Tucker Carlson be friends?

Slowdown! Case-Shiller Home Price Index Slows To Almost 0% YoY As Fed Pulls Out (SF Down -10% YoY, Seattle Down -9.3%, Miami Up +10.8%)

The US housing market is experiencing a slowdown as The Fed withdraws it outragous monetary stimlus.

The Case-Shiller 20 metro house price index grew at a rate of 036% year-over-year (YoY) in February.

Drifting into darkness, we have the West getting battered with my old hometown of San Francisco leading the pack at -10% YoY with Seattle down -9.3% YoY.

You know things are bad out west when Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago are gaining ground in prices. And Miami was up 10.8% YoY.

In The Garden Of Biden! US Wage Growth Is Above Home Price Growth For First Time Since Trump (But NOT After Controlling For Inflation) Biden Goes Crazy On Mortgage Rules!

In the garden of Biden, not all is well for housing and the mortgage market.

It has been a tough road for the US economy since Covid and Biden’s Reign of Error. For the first time since July 2020 under President Trump, we have finally seen average hourly earnings growth YoY exceed average home price growth YoY.

In REAL terms (after substracting out headline inflation), we see that US housing market is still plagued by 24 straight months of negative wage growth with REAL wage growth still being lower than REAL home price growth.

Then we have Biden’s Marxist mortgage model, making those who who saved and showed care in managing their credit score given money to those who didn’t save and are terrible at financial management. Just like taxpayers trusting DC bureaucrats to carefully spend their money.

Biden’s new theme? “Let’s go crazy!”