Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
Pending home sales in the USA tanked 6.64% YoY. Yes, it was for December, but down 6.64% YoY means that pending home sales are lower than last December.
And the stock market was up across the board as Powell refused to take his foot off the monetary gas pedal.
Gold is down along with Bitcoin for you ALT investment types.
Yes, The Federal Reserve could have raised their target rate at their January meeting, but chose not to raise rates. Instead, Chairman Powell said that rate increases are a comin’!
I hope Powell wasn’t hoping for a slowdown in inflation, because today’s Q4 GDP report showed a surge in GDP to 6.9% QoQ. But with that GDP surge we also got a surge in prices paid by consumers to 6.9% as well. Thanks to the continuing massive Federal stimulus being poured into markets.
Despite the positive news on Q4 GDP, we are still seeing 7% inflation and a diving 10Y-2Y yield curve.
Along with that surprising GDP report, we are seeing the Bloomberg Commodity Index rising like a bat out of hell (RIP, Meatloaf).
Powell apparently found paradise by the dashboard light. So, why rock the boat? Oh yes. INFLATION.
Should Powell be renamed Meatloaf?
Despite inflation growing at 7% (versus The Fed’s target rate of 2%) and U-3 unemployment being only 3.9%, one would have thought that Jay and The Gang would have started increasing rates at the January meeting.
But nooooo. The Fed actually sat on their hands and did nothing.
What did The Fed say?
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $10 billion per month.“
According to The Fed Funds Futures data, the market is anticipating 1 rate increase at the March FOMC meeting. And another at the June FOMC meeting.
The Taylor Rule (not used by Jay and The Gang), suggests that The Fed should have their target rate at almost 18%! NOT 0.25%.
The Fed stands still.
US new home sales spiked in December by 11.9% from November, but were down 14% year-over-year.
But the median price of new home sales (YoY) declined to 3.4%.
The Midwest saw a surge in new home sales (+56%).
The MBA’s mortgage applications index shows declining purchase applications (-1.83%) and declining refinancing applications (-12.60%) as mortgage rates increased from 3.64% to 3.72% for the week of 01/21.
Now, mortgage purchase applications rose for the week of 01/21 if we used non-seasonally adjusted data.
Happenings two months ago. The Case-Shiller home price index is out for … November 2021.
The Case-Shiller National home price index “slowed” to 18.81% YoY in November as The Fed continues its monetary stimulypto. Notice that The Fed is easing even when there is limited inventory available. Result? Hideous home price inflation.
Which metro area is growing the fastest, making housing even more unaffordable for renters? Phoenix AZ is growing at a 32.2% YoY clip while Washington DC is the slowest growing metro area at 11.1% YoY. The second faster growing metro area in Tampa FLA.
Phoenix AZ is growing at the fastest rate in the nation as The Fed still has its monetary stimulus at FULL SPEED AHEAD.
Let’s see if Fed Chair Powell decides to raise rates and let the Fed’s balance sheet run-off.
The stock market has never started a year falling as quickly as it is now.
The S&P 500 has dropped 11% — heading into correction territory — in the first 16 trading days of 2022 in its worst-ever start to a year, according to Bloomberg data that goes back over nine decades.
The downturn comes as traders brace for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields weighs on the outlook for stocks. A host of technical signals also suggest that more volatility may be coming up ahead.
“The Fed pulled the punchbowl, liquidity has evaporated, and the S&P and NDX broke below their 200dma for the first time since the Covid outbreak,” said Rich Ross, technical strategist at Evercore ISI.
A bear market down to the 3,800 level is likely for the S&P 500, Ross said, given “the dramatic erosion of the technical backdrop, in conjunction with the highest inflation, tightest policy, and most uncertain political and geopolitical condition in years” — not to mention its historic rally since 2020.
The Shiller CAPE ratio is extremely high …. not surprising how much air The Fed pumped into the market tires.
But look at Europe too!
Is this the bubble burst many were expecting once The Federal Reserve starting raising rates?
Well, if today’s market opening is an indication, the answer is yes. The NASDAQ Composite Index is down 1.36% and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures prices are down 2%.
The S&P 500 index is down over 10% since January 3rd.
Drawdown is taking place.
But if you think the US equities are deflating, look at European equities. The Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 4.04%.
Is this a Don Ho “Tiny Bubble” burst? Or a slow deflation of asset prices as The Fed removes its stimulus?
It has been a tough 7 days for Bitcoin, Ethereum and the NASDAQ composite index as The Fed is anticipated to raise their target rate AND engage in quantitative tightening.
While the NASDAQ composite index has been deflating over past 7 days, Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged in recent days. What is going on??
The Russell 2000 value (white) and growth (green) indices are both deflating.
With regards to anticipated Fed rate increases, Fed Funds Futures are signaling almost 4 rate hikes in 2022 and 4 by the February 2023 meeting.
Then we have the massive increase in The Fed’s balance sheet after COVID struck in early 2020. Now, with the S&P 500 skyrocketing (until 7 days ago), why is The Fed buying sooooo much Agency MBS??
With the supply chain broken thanks to Congress/Biden/The Fed pouring trillions into an economic system that was working … we now have an economic system that is broken. Clogged ports, meat-packing labor shortages, etc. It’s as if Park’s and Recreation’s Jerry Gergich is running the economy as opposed to Ron Swanson.
For Bitcoin, there’s only been one constant recently: decline after decline after decline. And the superlatives have piled up really quickly.
With the Federal Reserve intending to withdraw stimulus from the market, riskier assets the world over have suffered. Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, lost as much as 8.7% Friday and dropped below $38,000 to its lowest level in six months. Since its peak in November, it has lost 40% of its value. Other digital currencies have suffered just as much, if not more, with Ether and meme coins mired in similar drawdowns.
Bitcoin’s decline since that November high has wiped out more than $570 billion in market value, and roughly $1.17 trillion has been lost from the aggregate crypto market. While there have been much larger percentage drawdowns for both Bitcoin and the aggregate market, this marks the second-largest ever decline in dollar terms for both, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“It gives an idea of the scale of value destruction that percentage declines can mask,” wrote Bespoke analysts in a note. “Crypto is, of course, vulnerable to these sorts of selloffs given its naturally higher volatility historically, but given how large market caps have gotten, the volatility is worth thinking about both in raw dollar terms as well as in percentage terms.”
With the Fed’s intentions rocking both cryptocurrencies and stocks, a dominant theme has emerged in the digital-asset space: cryptos have twisted and turned in nearly exactly the same way as equities have.
Yes, it is fun times in markets this Friday as $3.3 trillion in options expire.
As of 9:52am EST, we see Bitcoin (white) and Ethereum (blue) falling along with the Dow (pink), while gold (gold) fell then rebounded.
European stock markets are down 2% today.
Global sovereign bond prices are up across the board internationally as yields decline.
Crude oil is down today while natural gas is soaring. In particular, look at UK natural gas prices!
Brrr.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.